On August 25, Israel carried out a pre-emptive strike on Lebanon, claiming it was in response to a planned large-scale attack by Hezbollah. Despite Israel’s massive assault, Hezbollah retaliated with over 300 rockets and drones targeting Israel, resulting in casualties on both sides.

Escalation of Conflict: Gaza and Beyond

• The war’s epicenter remains Gaza, where Israel’s relentless bombardment has led to massive casualties, with over 40,000 Palestinians killed. This conflict was triggered by Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Israel’s ongoing offensive in Gaza aims to dismantle Hamas, but the war’s spread to Lebanon indicates that the conflict is not confined to one region. 
• Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shia militia, has launched numerous attacks on Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza. These attacks have turned northern Israel into a depopulated war zone, as Hezbollah continues its offensive despite Israel’s retaliatory strikes.

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Stance of USA and Hezbollah

• The United States has been actively involved in the conflict, supporting Israel’s war efforts through defense supplies and diplomatic backing. While the U.S. also mediates for a ceasefire, its support for Israel complicates the dynamics, as Hezbollah remains resolute in continuing its attacks as long as the Gaza conflict persists.
• The conflict shows no signs of de-escalating, with both Israel and Hezbollah unwilling to back down. Israel’s efforts to weaken Hezbollah by targeting its commanders have not deterred the group, and the ongoing war in Gaza continues to fuel tensions. The risk of a wider regional war remains high as the conflict drags on with no easy solutions in sight.

Conclusion

By destroying Hamas, Israel wanted to strengthen its security in the south, but the widening war has heightened its insecurity in the north. And Israel does not have any easy military solution for Hezbollah. As long as the war in Gaza continues, the path towards a wider regional war will remain open.

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India is arguably better placed than most of America’s partners to deal with the incipient political change of guard in Washington. Whether it is the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, or the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, who wins the November election, India’s relations are unlikely to face any disruption.

India’s Position under the Democrats and the Republicans

• India is arguably better placed than most of America’s partners to deal with the incipient political change of guard in Washington. 
  • Whether it is the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, or the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, who wins the November election, India’s relations are unlikely to face any disruption.
• Unlike America’s allies in Europe and Asia who worry about the return of Trump, India has strengthened its relationship with the US under both the Trump and Biden administrations. 
• Delhi, therefore, has reasons to be confident about continuity in its ties with the US. Yet, change is the only enduring law of the universe, and Delhi must be prepared to deal with either incremental or radical changes within domestic US politics that could affect relations.
• In 2000, Bill Clinton visited India followed by the other US presidents till Biden. Every president of America stood in favour of strengthening the ties with India. 
• Indian Prime Ministers- Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh, and Narendra Modi also stated their stance on strengthening India-US ties.

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How are India-US Relations the most comprehensive?

• The US is now the most comprehensive and consequential partner for India. A comprehensive partner refers to an all-around partnership like a partnership in defence cooperation, cultural exchanges, economic ties, scientific collaboration, diplomatic sport, and security dimensions. 
  • A consequential partner can bring about important results like the India-US Relation can bring about changes in the Indo-Pacific Region.
• China is a large trading partner but it is also the biggest contributor to India’s trade deficit.
• Delhi is also locked in a semi-permanent military confrontation with Beijing on its long and contested border.
• Russia is a major military partner, but the relationship does not have the economic or technological weight of Delhi’s relationship with Washington.
• Europe is a major source of trade, technology, and capital, but does not have America’s geopolitical heft that can contribute to India’s national security objectives.

Media Pessimism in the Path of Bilateral Ties

• Cutting across all this is the hugely successful five million-strong Indian diaspora in the US.
• Despite the expansive growth of the bilateral partnership over the last two-and-a-half decades, pessimism hangs like a pall over the discourse on the prospects for the bilateral relationship in think tanks, media, and academia.
• Every dispute between Delhi and Washington is viewed as a deal-breaker even as scepticism greets every breakthrough in the relationship.
• The gap between the public discourse and the strategic evolution of India-US relations is real but maybe inconsequential as we look ahead to the next administration.

Engagement between India-US

• The Indian establishment’s intensive engagement with successive administrations means there is great familiarity with the Republican and Democratic policy establishments that populate a large number of important, politically appointed administrative positions.
  • This, in turn, is reinforced by the expansive “Track 2″ engagements” between the Indian and American strategic communities. 
    • Under this agreement, non-governmental activities have been exacerbated. As a result of this, researchers exchange their ideas, and retired diplomats and corporate leaders of both countries meet each other. 
• Over the last few decades, Delhi has also engaged with the US Congress and built solid foundations of support on both sides of the aisle.
• The US corporate sector plays a major role in America’s engagement with the world. Thanks to the growing volumes of trade and deepening links between the tech sectors of the two countries, Delhi can count on backing from American businesses for the US partnership with India.

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Stance of Trump VS Stance of Harris

• While Trump’s positions on global issues are well known, many critics see Harris as a “mystery” when it comes to foreign policy. 
  • But her international record as Biden’s vice president, the policy platform adopted at the convention last week, and her speech accepting the Democratic nomination does give some clues.
  • Four issues are of special interest to India – immigration, trade, technology, and Eurasian security.
• Unlike Trump, who talks of drastic approaches to curbing immigration, Harris advocates an overhaul of the system to promote legal immigration and deter illegal flows in partnership with the Republicans in the US Congress.
  • So long as the US needs to import global talent and the immigration reform focuses on a merit-based system, Delhi will have little reason for worry. 
  • Immigration is now a toxic issue in US politics and Delhi must recognize that there is growing illegal Indian migration into the US and work with Washington to address the issue.
• On trade, Harris attacked Trump’s plan to impose a 10 percent tariff on all imports as a “national sales tax (10%)” that will impose a massive burden on American consumers. That should bring some relief to Indian exporters.
• Harris is likely to persist with the Biden approach, which has much resonance in India, on building a “durable global economic order” centred around “resilient supply chains (Japan, India, Australia, and the USA undertook measures to frame a resilient supply chain away from the dependency of China)” and “deeper trade with trusted partners”.
• On technology, Harris is likely to continue with the Biden policy of building advanced technology coalitions with key partners like the EU, India, Singapore, and South Korea.
  • For India, Harris’s political roots in California, the world’s leading technological hub, her record in the Biden administration as the chair of the US National Space Council, and her leadership on the national and global governance of Al are likely to be of great value in deepening the tech partnership with the US in a potential US administration under her.
• On issues relating to Eurasian security, Harris attacked Trump for wanting to abandon America’s European allies and reiterated her commitment to NATO and the defence of Ukraine.

Challenge for India w.r.t USA

• The Russian question will continue to be a complicating factor in India’s relations with the US. 
• PM Modi’s visit to Kyiv last week underlines Delhi’s commitment and capacity to carefully traverse the Ukraine minefield between Russia, Europe, and America.

Mutual perspective on China

• China’s challenge to Asian security has been a major source of strategic convergence between Delhi and Washington in recent years.
• The shared interest in building a multipolar Asia became explicit under Trump and acquired greater traction under Biden. There is nothing to suggest that this will change under a Harris administration.
• Harris, who visited Asia four times in the last four years, has been at the forefront of building a “latticework” of US alliances (QUAD, AUKUS) aimed at limiting potential Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific.

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Conclusion

No partnership can endure without sustained political and bureaucratic tending. The corporate groups in the USA are in favour of strong bilateral ties with India as India is a huge market for the USA. Even though China too is a big trading partner of India, there is a huge deficit, unlike the USA. India must be prepared to prevent natural differences from becoming disputes. Delhi must also accelerate the effort to build on the solid foundation that exists today for building a more consequential global partnership with Washington under the next administration.

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The brutal rape and murder of a woman doctor in Kolkata has led to the country finding itself, once again, engaged in a deep conversation on the safety of women in India.

Women and Safety

• Women’s safety does not only relate to physician safety but also includes psychological safety. Psychological safety refers to mental peace and freedom. 
  • For example, Riya, a 25-year-old independent working woman who comes back home every day at 9 PM from the office, fears that something wrong will happen to her on her way back. This fear takes a toll on her and snatches away her mental peace.
• Women across the country face a spectrum of aggressive behaviour and violence – from sexual harassment and dowry-related deaths to rape and domestic violence.
• While the physical impact of violence against women is acknowledged by both the state and society as visible and tell-tale signs on women, there is considerably less focus on its psychological and behavioural consequences.
  • This oversight means that while the physical and explicit acts of violence may provoke immediate and visible responses and draw public attention, the enduring psychological impact remains difficult to measure and often goes unnoticed and unaddressed.

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Disadvantages faced by Women’s as a result of ingrained state of alertness

• In the absence of adequate structural protection by the state and society, the onus (burden) of one’s safety often falls on women themselves.
• As a result, women in India are forced to live in a state of perpetual vigilance and mental stress, constantly evaluating their surroundings for potential threats in public and private spaces can lead to long-term health issues.
  • Impact on mental health: This state of constant alertness, deeply ingrained in the psyche of women, learned and imbibed from a young age, then becomes both necessary and exhausting.
  • Limitation on one’s growth: Career limitation is one such major challenge faced by women. Late-night shifts and jobs in new cities pose serious challenges to growth and opportunities worldwide.
  • Impact on social life: A woman generally avoids late-night outings or parties with friends, hesitation in meeting new people, not trust anyone easily making the friend circle of a lady much smaller as compared to a man. This is because of fear.
  • Freedom of movement: At times women fear travelling alone because of the anti-social elements existing in the society.
• After every such horrific instance of violence against women, protests are held, tremendous pressure is exerted on the incumbent government and multiple articles get published but the major issue of psychological safety never gets addressed.

Terms associated with Discrimination against Women

• Intersectionality: The social categories of caste, class, and religion when gets overlap add complexity to the burden of vigilance women must bear, with marginalized women facing intensified discrimination and prejudice. 
  • For them, threats are not only gendered but also rooted in societal hierarchies. This is known as the intersectionality of caste, class, and religion. For example., a Dalit woman experiences double discrimination, first, she is a lady and second, she is a Dalit. 
  • While women from privileged caste and class backgrounds may have access to relatively safer environments, such as gated communities and private transportation, they are still not immune to harassment and violence. 
    • However, women from disadvantaged groups face more immediate and pervasive dangers, often lacking institutional support to address safety concerns.
• Inter-generational impact: A mother to ensure her daughter’s safety restraints her in various aspects. Later on, when the daughter gives birth to her child, she passes on her childhood insecurities and trauma to her daughter and the cycle continues. This is to be understood as inter-generational impact.
• Invisible burden: The mental stress as a result of safety concerns does not get addressed as rampantly as does physical violence. This leads to the creation of a burden on a lady that is invisible to all.

Impact of a Woman’s Incessant Fear on Society

• When women are forced to prioritize safety over curiosity, and vigilance over exploration, they are denied the full spectrum of the human experience.
• The world, instead of being a place of wonder and discovery, becomes one of danger and caution. 
• This not only limits their experiences but also deprives society of the contributions and innovations that could flourish if women were free from this constant burden even after having the potential to do so.

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Conclusion

The vigilance also creates a dissonance between how women live and how they wish to live. Women are frequently forced to navigate this duality: advocating for empowerment while simultaneously adapting their behaviour to mitigate risks associated with their safety.

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India has held its decadal censuses regularly from 1881 to 2011, only the year of COVID-19 is an exception. There remains little excuse to continually delay the decennial Census, an exercise that has been conducted without fail from 1881 to 2011.

India’s Census Status

• As of June 2024, out of 233 countries, India was one of 44 not to have conducted the Census this decade. 
• India shares this dubious distinction of not having a Census with countries affected by conflict,  (external or civil war), political instability, economic crises, or turmoil such as Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, and sub-Saharan Africa.

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Extension of Census Deadline

• Even though India is not undergoing similar political and economic turmoil, the ostensible reason provided by the Union Home Ministry was a delay due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but 143 other countries conducted the Census after March 2020, which marked the onset of the pandemic.
• Yet, the deadline to freeze administrative boundaries of districts, tehsils, towns, and municipal bodies – a prerequisite before the conduct of the Census – lapsed on June 30 this year. This deadline has been extended 10 times since 2019.

What could be the reason behind the incessant delay?

• The Union government is reportedly considering expanding data collection in the upcoming Census to include caste enumeration, a move influenced by demands from various political parties.
  • Concerns Over Caste Enumeration in the Census: The push for including caste in the Census follows the unsatisfactory experience with the Socio-Economic and Caste Census of 2011. That effort produced unwieldy, inaccurate, and ultimately unusable data. Given these issues, there is a need for caution before implementing caste enumeration in the upcoming Census.
  • The Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) of 2011 was conducted to gather detailed data on the socio-economic status of households across India, with the additional aim of identifying caste-based demographics. Its primary motive was to enable better-targeted delivery of government welfare schemes by identifying the socio-economic needs of various communities, especially marginalized groups.
  • The Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) of 2011 revealed the presence of over 48 lakh caste categories due to variations and errors in how people reported their caste. For instance, some identified as Yadavs, others as Yadavj, and some misspelled it as Yadhav. Consequently, despite the completion of the data collection process, the data was unusable. This experience underscored the complexity of caste data collection, highlighting the need for proper training and rigorous data verification before the information can be effectively utilized.

Impact of Delay in Conducting Census

• Impact on policy-making: The schemes formulated by the Government are based on the data available to them. Now, the government has to resort to the 2011 data along with the data collected from various surveys but the data of these surveys is not as reliable as the census data. 
  • For example., the amount that needs to be allocated for the beneficiaries of the National Food Security Act can only be done once the census data is available. 
    • Only when the data is reliable, the government would be able to decide the amount that needs to be allocated for the food security programme. 
• Impact on Federal Structure: If the delay in conducting the Census is intentional, to prioritize delimitation in 2026, it could be detrimental not only to public policy but also to relations with the States.

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Importance of Conducting the Census

• With the 2011 Census data getting increasingly outdated and phenomena such as migration across and within States, the urbanization of Indian societies, and the suburbanization of cities becoming increasingly prominent in recent years, the lack of a Census is telling.
• Besides, statistical surveys that go into setting policy such as those related to household and social consumption, the National Family Health Survey, the Periodic Labour Force Survey, and the Sample Registration System, among others, use the Census to set their sampling frames.

Conclusion

There must first be a definite time frame to conduct the Census on a war footing. If the delay is deliberate, to allow for delimitation to be conducted first in 2026, this will be harmful not just to public policy but also to relations with States. To speed up the process, accurate technology can be used, states can cooperate and people can be made aware of its significance, then it might help gather correct information.

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