The horizon for India beyond the G-20, SCO summits

Context:

India’s year-long presidency of the G-20, and leadership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), should not blind us to the persisting challenges the nation faces, due to a concatenation of circumstances. 

Deteriorating Situation:

• India needs to tone down the high expectations that are being generated of reaping a rich dividend from helming the G-20 and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
• Global peace is nowhere in sight with India holding the reins.
• Priorities listed by India as signifying its presidency, viz., climate change, clean energy, sustainable developmental programmes and reform of multilateral institutions, are likely to take a back seat, given the deteriorating global situation.

Two camps and distrust:

• Distrust between the two camps led by the United States and China/Russia, respectively, leaves little scope for countries such as India — that have not declared their allegiance to either camp — any room for manoeuvre. 
• Today, Ukraine presents a spectacle of possessing substantial quantities of sophisticated modern weaponry. 
• The two sides are thus positioning themselves to demonstrate which set of modern weaponry is superior. 
• A single misstep could well unleash an Armageddon.

The issues for India begin with China:

• China is on a major diplomatic-cum-strategic offensive across Asia, especially West Asia.
• China is displaying its naval prowess in the seas around much of East and Southeast Asia and a flexing of its military muscle in the Ladakh and Arunachal sectors of the Sino-Indian border. 
• Currently China is targeting India for going closer to the U.S. and the western bloc, for its partnership in the Quad (India, Australia, Japan, the U.S.), as well as its participation in maritime surveillance exercises with the U.S., Japan and Australia.

Caution has to be India’s watchword:

• China is also actively engaged in seeking new friends in India’s extended neighbourhood, in a bid to limit India’s influence in this region. 
• West Asia, once a region where India’s influence was preponderant, appears to be fast yielding to China’s muscular and diplomatic offensive. 
• The new China brokered Iran-Saudi Arabia entente is setting the stage for major diplomatic shifts across the region, marginalising India and certain other nations.

Awareness about China’s hostile intentions:

• India is not unaware of China’s hostile intentions overall.
• It is well aware of China’s ability to embark on hybrid warfare, including the adoption of cyber tactics, engage in the ‘politics of water’ by re-directing the Himalayan rivers, and adapting to modern conditions.
• The tactics popularised by the Fifth Century BCE Chinese Strategist, Sun Tzu, of ‘winning wars without fighting through avoiding the enemy’s strength and attacking his weaknesses’. 

Scenario with the neighbourhood:

• The situation in Afghanistan appears to be steadily worsening. India has, meanwhile, lost all traction with the Taliban in Afghanistan. 
• Pakistan and Sri Lanka, to different degrees, represent ‘worst case’ scenarios.

Relations with Russia & influence of China:

• India’s relations with Russia also appear to be entering a prolonged phase of uncertainty. 
• As India looks more to the West, specially the U.S., for state-of-the-art weaponry, the inevitability of the relationship can no longer be guaranteed. 
• With the Russia-China strategic relationship getting stronger and both countries openly giving vent to their belief in the utility of such a relationship, strains are inevitable in India-Russia relations. 
• Russia’s unequivocal attack on the Quad during the SCO Defence Ministers meeting in New Delhi recently, is a pointer to the winds of change that are becoming evident. 
• In the meantime, other pacts involving Russia, such as the Tripartite Russia-India-China platform and BRICS, have lost much of their dynamism. 

The Pinnacle:

• The moot point is that while India is one of the few countries in the world which has managed to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant economic crisis without much damage, and is widely seen as a prospective global power, it has much to do before it attains this pinnacle. 

Conclusion: 

• India’s journey towards becoming a global power is far from over. While it has made remarkable progress in many areas, including emerging relatively unscathed from the COVID-19 pandemic.
• There are many obstacles that have to be overcome before India can achieve its predetermined goal. Well before this, and notwithstanding its fortuitous position of helming both the G-20 and SCO simultaneously, India should not claim to have attained its goal.

News Source: The Hindu