A Long-Drawn test for India’s diplomatic skills

Context:

As Indian Prime Minister embarks on a week-long journey to Japan, Papua New Guinea and Australia, a number of substantive global issues are on the anvil in his discussions with leaders of the G-7 outreach in Hiroshima, Japan, as well as during his travels from there, with bilateral issues taking a back seat to India’s position in the multilateral sphere.

Concerns:

• Russian war in Ukraine
• The geopolitical challenge from China
• Worries over trade access, supply chain reliability
• Food and energy security

Test over Diplomatic Skills:

• Engagement with the BRICS leaders on an alternative BRICS payment mechanism to the dollar-dominated international system.
• On the agenda seeking to build a counter-narrative to the U.S.-European Union combine.
• In September, India will host every global leader at the G-20 summit in Delhi— not since 2010 have leaders of all permanent members of the UN Security Council visited Delhi in the same year.

The world of the SCO:

• A grouping that represents most of the world’s population, GDP growth, and energy reserves, India has comfort in its common stand against unilateral sanctions such as those against Russia.
• Observers such as Myanmar, gives the impression of it being a largely anti-western grouping.

Bilateral issues:

• In the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Council for Foreign Ministers (SCO-CFM) held in Goa earlier this month, India’s bilateral relations with mainly Pakistan, but China and even Russia, were allowed to overshadow more substantive multilateral outcomes, rather earlier lest it go the way of the other regional South Asian grouping, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

Striking a balance:

• In 2017, the same year that India took part in reviving the Quad in the face of overt belligerence from Beijing, India also joined the SCO as a full member, agreeing to host the summit this year. 
• New Delhi also exchanged places with both Italy and Indonesia in order to host the G-20 in 2023.
  • If it is hosting the two major summits in the same year,it is by choice, not coincidence.
• India has even managed to maintain India’s “sweet spot” without needing to follow the Indonesian President’s example in traveling to Kiev, or inviting Ukraine’s President and its Foreign Minister to address the G-20, in order to strike a balance on the war.

Autonomous strategy or multi-alignment:

• While India’s attempts at being a “balancing force” are playing out much more visibly, it is also setting off a trend — many countries in SouthEast Asia and the Global South are managing their ties with the West without joining its stand on Ukraine or sanctions. 
• France’s latest reiteration of “Strategic Autonomy” after the French President’s visit to Beijing indicates that even the western coalition has its fissures on this point.
  • Clearly, autonomous strategy or multi-alignment has paid off for India in this critical year.

Disturbing the balance:

• There are a few unlikely “black swan” events that could jolt India off its careful tightrope walk and force a rethink of its policies one way or the other. 
  • India’s unalloyed ties with Moscow. 
  • Any major aggression by China across any part of the Line of Actual Control.
  • Russia’s belligerent over the payment problem or withhold supplies of defense hardware to India under pressure from China.
  • Any decision by the U.S. and Europe to “force a choice” on India.
  • (Example: To go forward with unilateral sanctions for the increase in Russian oil inflows processed at the Rosneft-owned refinery in Gujarat, or through the old threat of Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act-Related Sanctions (CAATSA) for India’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile systems.)

Next 100 days:

• India’s tasks ahead will be made more difficult if New Delhi fails to ensure at the SCO summit or during the BRICS summit, that Moscow and Beijing accede to a consensus on a joint communique at the G-20 summit in September. 
• Given the high stakes involved, the next 100 days will decide whether India can retain its reputation in forging a fair balance between its conflicting interests across the global divide, while remaining a gracious and successful host as the world comes home for the G-20.

News Source: The Hindu