The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports a 70% chance that the average global temperature between 2025 and 2029 will exceed the 1.5°C limit above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900).

• The WMO’s latest decadal forecast, compiled with input from the UK Met Office

Key Highlights of the WMO Forecast (2025–2029)

• Breaching 1.5°C Limit: There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will see global temperatures more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
• Warmest Year Records: There is an 80% probability that one of the years from 2025–2029 will exceed 2024, the warmest year on record.
• Global Temperature Range: The annual global mean near-surface temperature is expected to be 1.2°C to 1.9°C higher than the 1850–1900 average.
• Regional Climate Projections
• • The Arctic region is likely to warm by 2.4°C in winters, more than 3.5 times the global average
    • Sea ice is likely to shrink even more between 2025 and 2029 in parts of the Arctic like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
  • South Asia, including India, is expected to experience wetter conditions, continuing recent trends, except for 2023.
  • Amazon may face drier-than-normal conditions, while northern Europe, Sahel, Alaska, and Siberia may become wetter from May to September.

Implications for Climate Policy

• Strengthened Global Action: Persistent warming trends reinforce the urgency of ambitious climate action, emissions cuts, and international cooperation.
• Risks to Ecosystems and Economies: Exceeding the 1.5°C limit could lead to severe impacts on biodiversity, agriculture, water resources, and economic stability.
• Climate Monitoring and Prediction: WMO emphasizes that continued climate tracking provides scientific tools for decision-makers to adapt effectively.
• India’s Climate Adaptation : With increasing monsoon variability and regional anomalies, India must enhance adaptation strategies, early warning systems, and climate-resilient infrastructure.