Context:

• The 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is bringing a renewed focus on the objective of the Paris Agreement.

What is the Paris Agreement?

• It superseded the Kyoto Protocol as the principal regulatory instrument governing the global response to climate change.
• It aims to cap the average global temperature increase at 2 degrees Celsius, or preferably 1.5°C above the preindustrial era.
• This objective was supported by a report that concluded that even a global warming of 1.5°C above the preindustrial average over an extended, decades-long period would pose high risks for “some regions and vulnerable ecosystems.
• 1.5°C and 2°C are not specific thresholds beyond which physical impacts suddenly manifest in a given year or location.
• These goals reflect the fact that a warming world will experience more severe impacts, with significantly graver consequences under 2°C warming compared to 1.5°C.
• It is an outcome of the Conference of Parties 21 or COP 21.
• Since 2020, countries have been submitting their national climate action plans, known as Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) as part of the agreement.
• • In their NDCs, countries communicate actions they will take to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. 

Current Global Warming Scenario

• Currently, the global average temperature has risen to 1.1°C relative to the 1800s and is projected to surpass the 1.5°C mark within the next decade. 
• If business as usual continues, scientists express concern that the world could warm by 4.4°C by 2100.

Why is the 1.5°C goal far from perfect?

• Different regions warm at their own rates. For instance, the Arctic is warming at double, or even triple, the average global rate. The North Pole is also warming faster than the Antarctic.
• This divergence implies that various regions will reach a 1.5°C increase at different times.
• Using global temperature is simply a convenient metric to represent all of these changes in a single measure of the amount of climate change.
• Uncertainties persist regarding the exact month or year when the 1.5°C goal will be surpassed. 
• This is attributed to uncertainties in past global temperature records, which stand at about 0.1°C, and natural climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
  • ENSO is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
• To determine when warming will cross the 1.5°C mark, scientists will need to average the global temperature over multiple years.

How far is the world on track to achieve the 1.5°C goal?

• It’s extremely unlikely that warming will be limited to 1.5°C given the large gap between projected emissions of carbon dioxide and other anthropogenic greenhouse gases and the promised reductions in such gases by different countries.
• The United Nations also stated that the world is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement target of preventing global temperature from exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Why is the world missing the target?

• Historically, developed countries are responsible for a major chunk of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 
• Therefore, they are expected to assume more responsibility and implement climate action. 
• However, the Climate Performance Index over the years has shown otherwise. Countries like Australia, the U.S, Japan, Russia and Canada have made little progress in meeting their pledges.

News Source: DTE