Indian Population Rising: Surpassing China by 2023

• According to the Census of India 2011, India is the second most populous country in the world after China, with a total population of 121 crores.
• However, According to the recently released United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) State of World Population report India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country in the middle of 2023.

Growth Rate of Population: Growth Challenges to Emerging Trends

• Pre-1931 Demographic Landscape in India: Before 1931, both death rates and birth rates in India were high due to famines, disasters and major epidemic diseases such as plague, smallpox, cholera, influenza etc..
• Post-1931: Decline in Death Rates in India: 
  • Medical Advancements: After 1931, the death rate declined due to Improvements in medical cures for these diseases, programmes for mass vaccination, and efforts to improve sanitation.
  • Transformative Factors: Substantial improvements in the productivity of Indian agriculture (especially through the expansion of irrigation), improved means of communication, and more vigorous relief and preventive measures by the state have helped drastically reduce deaths from famine.

Birth and Death Rate in India 1901-2017

• Population Trends in India (1901–1951): Between 1901–1951 the average annual growth rate did not exceed 1.33%, a modest rate of growth. 
  • In fact between 1911 and 1921 there was a negative rate of growth of – 0.03%. 
    • This was because of the influenza epidemic during 1918–19 which killed about 12.5 million persons or 5% of the total population of the country (Visaria and Visaria 2003)
• Post-Independence Population Dynamics: The growth rate of population substantially increased after independence from British rule going up to 2.2% during 1961-1981. 
  • Since then although the annual growth rate has decreased it remains one of the highest in the developing world.
• Phenomenon of Population Explosion: However, the birth rate has not registered a sharp fall because the birth rate is a socio-cultural phenomenon that is relatively slow to change. 
  • This resulted in rapid population growth often termed a population explosion.

• Positive Correlations: The decline in infant mortality rates, the overall increase in the levels of education and awareness, and economic prosperity have a positive correlation with Indian Population control. 
  • NFHS 5 Report: highlighted that India’s total fertility rate ( TFR ) has declined to 2.0, which is below replacement-level fertility.

Variations in Fertility Rates Across the States of India: Successes and Challenges

• Successful State Initiatives: States, like Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have managed to bring down their total fertility rates (TFR) to 1.7 each (2016).
• Challenges Persist in Some States: Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, still have very high TFRs. 
  • In 2016, the TFRs of these states were 3.3, 2.8, 2.7 and 3.1, respectively.
• Future Population Growth: The highest birth rate in India is Uttar Pradesh (25.9) and Bihar (26.4), and they will also account for about half (50%) of the additions to the Indian population up to the year 2041.
• Map: State-wise Birth Rates in India, 2017, Regional Shares of Projected Population Growth upto 2041

Age Structure of the Indian Population: Trends and Projections

• Age Structure: The composition of an Indian Population in terms of the proportions of individuals of different ages is known as age structure.
• Youthful Demographics: India is a young country i.e. majority of Indians are young and the average age of Indians is less than in most other countries.
• Shifting Demographics: However, the age composition of the Indian population is expected to change significantly in the next two decades.
  • The 0 -14 Age Group: This age group will reduce its share by about 11% (from 34% in 2001 to 23% in 2026) 
  • The 60-plus Age Group: This group will increase its share by about 5% (from 7% in 2001 to about 12% in 2026.) 
  • Refer to Chart to see the changing age structure of the Indian population represented in the form of an Indian Population pyramid from 1961 to its projected shape in 2026. 

• Contrasting Age Structures: Indian states also show wide variations in their age structure. 
  • Kerala has acquired an age structure of the developed countries.
  • In Uttar Pradesh the proportion of younger age groups is still high. Chart  shows the estimated population pyramids for Uttar Pradesh and Kerala in the year 2026.

Age Group Pyramids, 1961, 1981, 2001 and 2026

Age Structure Pyramids, Kerala and Uttar Pradesh, 2026