Indian Society: Insights for Future Societal Paths

Demography is the systematic study of the Indian society’s population. The term is of Greek origin and is composed of two words, demos (people) and graphe in (describe), implying the description of people. Demography studies the trends and processes associated with population including, changes in population size, patterns of births, deaths, and migration and the structure and composition of the Indian society’s population, such as the relative proportions of women, men and different age groups. 

Understanding the demography of a country is crucial for making policy recommendations, and making predictions about where the Indian society or group is headed in the future.

Theories of Demography: Population Growth and Resource Strain

The Malthusian Theory: Malthusian Insights on indian society

• Thomas Robert Malthus in his Essay on Population (1798) propounded that the human population in society grows at a much faster rate than the rate at which human subsistence can grow.
• Geometric vs. Arithmetic Progression: According to Malthus, populations rise in geometric progression (i.e. 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.), while agricultural production can only grow in arithmetic progression (i.e. 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, etc.). 
• Imperative of Population Control: Population growth always outstrips growth in agricultural production, the only way to increase prosperity in society is by controlling the growth of the population.
• Malthusian Checks on Population: For him, a balance between population growth and food supply can be established through preventive and positive checks.
  • Preventive Measures: These are namely late marriage, self-control, and celibacy help to balance the population growth and food supply.
  • Positive Checks: These include disasters, wars, famines and diseases to control population growth in society. 
    • These are nature’s ways of dealing with the imbalance between the food supply and the increasing population.

Criticism: Debunking Population-Wealth Link

• Rebutting Malthusian Predictions: A refutation of this theory was provided by the historical experience of European countries that Malthus’s predictions were proved false because both food production and standards of living continued to rise despite the rapid growth of population. 
• Liberal and Marxist Critiques: These scholars criticise Malthusian theory for asserting that poverty is not caused by population growth rather poverty and starvation are caused by the unequal distribution of economic resources.

Theory of Demographic Condition: Economic Links and Growth Phases

• This theory propounded that population growth is linked to overall levels of economic development and every Indian society follows a typical pattern of development-related population growth.
• Three Fundamental Stages: As per this theory, there are three basic stages of population growth.
  • First Stage: In this stage, Low population growth in Indian society due to being underdeveloped and technologically backwards. 
    • Growth rates are low because both the death rate and the birth rate are very high resulting in a low net growth rate.
• Second Stage: It is a transitional stage in which Indian society moves from underdevelopment to development stage.
  • Accelerated Population Growth: It is characterised by very high rates of growth in population as death rates are brought down quickly through advanced methods of disease control, public health, and better nutrition. 
  • However, the birth rate is still high as Indian society takes time to change and alter its reproductive behaviour.
• Third Stage: Low growth in a developed indian society. Both death rate and birth rate have been reduced considerably and the difference between them is small.

Demographic Indicators: Key Indicators and Demographic Shifts

• Birth Rate: Birth rate in the indian society is the number of live births per thousand population in the Indian society during a given time.
• Death Rate: It is expressed as the number of deaths in a given area during a given time per thousand population.
• Growth Rate of Population: Refers to the difference between the birth rate and the death rate in Indian society. It could be positive as well as negative.

• • A Positive Growth Rate: It indicates that the population is increasing. 
    • It happens when the birth rate is higher than the death rate.
  • A Negative Growth Rate indicates that the population is decreasing. 
    • It happens when fertility levels are below the replacement rate.
• Fertility Rate: It refers to the number of live births per thousand women in the child-bearing age group, usually taken to be 15 to 49 years.
• Infant Mortality Rate: It refers to the number of deaths of babies before the age of one year per thousand live births. 
  • High rates of infant mortality are an indicator of backwardness and poverty.
• Maternal Mortality Rate: Refers to the number of women who die during childbirth per lakh live births.
• Life Expectancy: This refers to the estimated number of years that an average person is expected to survive. 
  • It is calculated on the basis of data on age-specific death rates in a given area over a period of time.
• Sex Ratio: It refers to the number of females per thousand males in a given area at a specified time period.
• Age Structure of the Population: It Refers to the proportion of persons in different age groups relative to the total population.
• Dependency Ratio: It is equal to the population below 15 or above 64, divided by the population in the 15-64 age group. This is usually expressed as a percentage. 

• • Challenges of an Ageing Population: The rising dependency ratio is a cause for worry in countries that are facing an ageing population.
    • It is difficult for a relatively smaller proportion of working-age people to carry the burden of providing for a relatively larger proportion of dependents.
  • Demographic Dividend: The falling dependency ratio can be a source of economic growth and prosperity due to the larger proportion of working-age people ( 15-64 age group ). This is sometimes referred to as demographic dividend.