Context: This article is based on an Editorial “Why terrorist activity has shifted from Kashmir to Poonch-Rajouri” which was published in the Indian Express. France President Emanuel Macron will attend the 75th Republic Day celebration 2024 as a chief guest. There has been a rise in terror activities in Poonch and Rajouri regions of Jammu and Kashmir.

Terrorist Activity Shifted From Kashmir to Poonch-Rajouri: Reasons

• Favorable Milieu: Kashmir has a very strong counter-infiltration and counter-terrorism grid making it harder for Pakistan to operate proxies there.  Poonch-Rajouri offers an easier path of lesser resistance in comparison.
• Local Support: There is some speculation that local support structures amongst certain communities like Gujjars may have been revived by Pakistan to enable proxy presence.

• Indian Army’s Ladakh Deployment: The heavy deployment of Indian Army troops in Ladakh since May 2020 resulted in some dilution of optimal deployment in sectors like Poonch-Rajouri which militants are exploiting. Some redeployment has already occurred to bolster defenses. 
• Strategic Signaling:  Pakistan wants to keep the relevance of the Kashmir issue alive and exhibit its ability to calibrate the situation. 
  • Increased attacks in Poonch-Rajouri sector serves that signaling purpose in the backdrop of post-Article 370 abrogation difficulties operating in Kashmir valley directly. 

Conclusion

Poonch-Rajouri emerges as a hotspot due to strategic shifts and local dynamics, highlighting the evolving nature of regional security challenges.