IPCC Assessment Reports: Key Highlights

Context

Recently the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently released its 6th Synthesis Report, which updated and summarized the IPCC’s sixth assessment cycle.

• The IPCC is currently in its Seventh Assessment cycle (AR7).

About IPCC Assessment Reports

• These are comprehensive Assessment Reports about knowledge on climate change, its causes, potential impacts and response options.

• The IPCC uses ‘modelled pathways’ to estimate what it will take to limit the warming of the earth’s surface. 
  • These pathways are drawn using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that describe human and earth systems. 
• IPCC reports comprise three Working Group reports namely:
  • Physical science
  • Climate adaptation
  • Mitigation action
    • One synthesis report consolidates findings from the three Working Group reports. 
    • Sixth Synthesis Report: The sixth synthesis report merges the main conclusions of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) with contributions from the three Working Groups and three Special Reports.
• Other Reports: There are thematic special reports. Each report assesses climate-related scientific literature to capture the state of scientific, technical, and socio-economic knowledge on climate change.

Key Highlights of Future Emission Scenarios Presented by IPCC

• Per-capita GDP disparities: According to the report, by 2050, per-capita GDP in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and West Asia (which account for 60% of the world’s population) will remain lower than the global average.
• Consumption inequities: The Global North and South are likely to continue to consume commodities, services, and energy at disparate rates.
• Mitigation load: Developing countries are expected to bear a heavier burden of carbon sequestration and the implementation of Carbon Capture and Storage technology.
• Unprecedented global warming: Human activities have resulted in a considerable increase in mean surface temperature and CO2 concentrations. Fossil fuel use remains the principal driver of GHG emissions.
• Reductions in Emissions: To restrict warming to 1.5ºC, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced rapidly and consistently.
• Technology Utilization: Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies may supplement emission reductions but must be used carefully due to sustainability considerations.
• Phasing Out of Fossil Fuel: The paper emphasizes the importance of significantly reducing fossil fuel use and eliminating fossil fuel subsidies.
• Protecting Ecosystems: The pledge to end deforestation by 2030, as well as the implementation of biodiversity policies, are urgent imperatives because forest conservation offers enormous mitigation potential.
• Shift in  demand: Energy saving and changing food habits can result in significant emissions reductions, especially in high-emission sectors such as transportation and agriculture.
• Adaptation activities: It  must be stepped up to confront growing climate risks, particularly among vulnerable populations; integrated climate resilient development pathways are critical for synergistic mitigation and adaptation actions.
• Role of Finance: Finance plays an important role in advancing climate action through increased funding, technology transfer, and international cooperation.

Shortcomings in Current Modelling Approach

• Flaws: IAMs focus on least-cost assessments, failing to account for historical responsibilities and nation-specific capabilities.
• Least-cost assessments: IAMs frequently focus on determining the most cost-effective strategies to reduce emissions, such as establishing solar plants or afforestation projects, which are typically less expensive in nations like India than in the United States.
• Inequitable distribution: Developing countries are expected to bear a disproportionate share of both mitigation efforts and carbon removal technology, putting additional strain on regions already dealing with developmental issues and socioeconomic inequality.
• Flawed approach: The unequal allocation of climate burdens undermines the ideals of justice and shared but differentiated obligations inherent in international accords.
• Ignoring Equity: The report fails to take into account the Global North’s historical obligation as well as the Global South’s developing energy demands.

News Source: The Hindu