Context:
The 2023-24 El Nino event has peaked as one of the five strongest on record according to WMO.
El Niño:
- El Niño is periodic warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean along the Peruvian Coast replacing the cold Humboldt current.
- It occurs every two to seven years on an average, and typically lasts nine to 12 months.
- Impact:
- It is associated with increased rainfall in the Horn of Africa and the southern US, and unusually dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia and southern Africa.
- The low-level surface winds or the Easterlies weaken or in some cases, changes their direction and start blowing in the other direction (from west to east).
- Societies and economies: Accurate seasonal forecasts helped countries prepare in advance to try to limit the damage in climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, water resources and health.
- Early warnings of weather and climate extremes associated with El Nino have saved countless lives
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2023-24 El Niño – One of the Strongest on Record Says WMO
- As per the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global mean temperature breached the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold for an entire year for the first time in January.
- World Meteorological Organisation issued the Global Seasonal Climate Update as per which,
- El Nino event 2023: It was strongest between November and January.
- It displayed a peak value of about 2.0 degrees Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average sea-surface temperature for the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean though it was weaker than the 1997-98 and 2015-2016 events.
- Impact:
- The present El-Nino event will result in above-normal sea-surface temperatures over much of the global oceans
- It is expected to lead to above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas in the next three months, and influence regional rainfall patterns.
- Peaking: There is about a 60% chance of El Nino persisting during March-May with above-normal temperatures predicted over almost all land areas but it will be weakened with an 80% likelihood of neutral conditions developing during April to June.
- Emergence of La nina: There is a higher chance of La Nina developing later in the year again
- Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record and 2023 was, by far, the warmest year on record. El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures but heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
Also Read: Changing Rainfall Patterns In India’s Sub-Districts
News source: The hindu
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March 7, 2024