India is facing a third year of falling wheat production due to rise in temperature.

• Scientists have estimated that for every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature wheat production reduces by 4-5 million tonnes.

Impact of Heat Stress on Wheat Production in India

The impact of “heat stress” was more evident in key wheat growing states of north India where wheat productivity declined significantly during the 2021-22 rabi or winter planting season (sowing in mid-November and harvesting in April-May). 

• • Example: In Punjab, the decline was 13.5% compared to the previous year.
• Decline in Yield: Its yields have declined significantly in the past two years. In 2022, excessive temperatures in March hit wheat production, lowering output by almost 4 million tonnes below the government’s forecast of 110 million tonnes.
• Reversal of Improvements: It is threatening to reverse the substantial improvements in wheat production India experienced between 2014-15 and 2020-21 when output increased from 86 million tonnes to 110 million tonnes. 

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Other Factors impacting Wheat Availability in India

There are various factors that impact the availability and production of Wheat, which are as follows:

• Missing on Production Target: In 2023, the official target for wheat output of 113 million tonnes was again down by almost 3 million tonnes.  
  • • This year, the government expects wheat output to be 110 million tonnes again, but the actual level will not be known for several months. 
  • Impact of Production Decline on Government’s Targets:
    • To Maintain Prices in Check: By lowering publicly held stocks (buffer stocks), critical for providing subsidized food grains to the poor as well as for conducting open market operations necessary for keeping domestic wheat prices in check. 
    • India as an Export Hub: Lower output has affected the government’s aspirations for transforming India into an agriculture export hub. 
• Less Procurement by the Government: Consistently lower-than-expected level of wheat procurement by the government is also impacting.
  • During the 2022-23 rabi marketing season, procurement by government agencies was 18.7 million tonnes as against the government target of 44.4 million tonnes, a 60% shortfall.
  • In the next year, the government set a considerably lower procurement target of 34.2 million tonnes, but actual procurement was 26.1 million tonnes, almost a quarter lower. 
  • The government lowered the wheat procurement target for the current season further to 30-32 million tonnes.
    • Latest estimates indicate that wheat procurement would be marginally higher than that of the previous year.
• Export Ban:
  • For Food Security: During 2021-22, India emerged as one of the major wheat exporter, but with its output declining in 2022 after increasing continuously for six years, between 2015-16 and 2020-21, the government banned wheat exports in order to manage the overall food security of the country and control the increasing prices of foodgrains. 
  • Export Continue on Existing Deals: However, even while imposing the export ban, the government decided  to “continue with deals which are done directly with other governments” resulting in export of more than 4.6 million tonnes during 2022-23.
  • But with wheat production declining during the year, continued wheat exports made its impact felt on the domestic food reserves.
    • The current buffer stock level is at a 16-year low, slightly higher than the previous lowest wheat stock that was at 24.1 million tonnes on June 1, 2008.
• Increase in Imports: The supply constraints have become an area of concern from the government stems from the fact that India has begun importing substantial quantities of wheat, the first time since 2017-18. 
  • Statistics: Imports began in June 2023 and have increased consistently since. Until April this year, total imports have been almost 115,000 tonnes.
• Inadequate Resources: The fiscal support for agricultural research has remained inadequate as increases in budgetary allocations have often not been increased in real terms. 

About Wheat

Wheat holds an important place in India as is the second most important cereal crop after rice. It is the main food crop, in the north and north-western part of India.

• A Rabi Crop: Wheat is a rabi crop that requires a cool growing season and bright sunshine at the time of ripening.
• Required Temperature: Between 10-15°C (Sowing time) and 21-26°C (Ripening and Harvesting).
• Required Rainfall: Around 75-100 cm
• Soil Type: Well-drained fertile loamy and clayey loamy (regions include Ganga-Satluj plains and black soil region of the Deccan).
• Top Wheat Producing States: Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar and Gujarat.
• Exporting Nations: India’s top export markets are Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka and the UAE
• Government Initiatives:
  • The National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture 
    • It is expected to transform Indian agriculture into an ecologically sustainable climate resilient production system. 
  • National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture
    • It aims at strategic research on adaptation and mitigation, demonstration of technologies on farmers’ fields and creating awareness among farmers and other stakeholders to minimize the climatic change impacts on agriculture.
  • Macro Management Mode of Agriculture
    • It brings together under one umbrella 27 centrally sponsored schemes relating to cooperatives, crop production programmes, watershed development programmes, horticulture, fertilizer, mechanization and seeds.
  • National Food Security Mission
    • It promotes usage of farm machineries or implements in cultivation of target crops for improved production efficiency.
  • Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana
    • It was launched with an aim to achieve 4% annual growth in the agriculture sector during the XIth Plan period. 

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