Context: 

This article is based on the news “Budget: Govt panel to look into India’s demographic challenges” which was published in the Economic Times. While presenting the Interim Budget 2024, the Finance Minister said that a high-powered committee will be constituted to consider the challenges arising from “fast population growth and demographic changes”.

Current Status of India’s Demography

• Population Growth Trend: According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-5 for 2019-2021, total fertility rate declined from 2.2% to 2% in comparison to the last survey held in 2015-16.
• Demography Comparison with Global Statistics: India, the most populous country, covers 2.4% of the global surface area and holds more than 18% of the world’s population.
  • According to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects (WPP) report of 2022, India has surpassed China in 2023 as the world’s most populous country. 
• Youthful Demographic Profile: According to the report of World Population Review, the median age in India is 28 years, which is much younger than major counterparts like China (38years), Japan (48years), Western Europe (43years), US (38years).
• Working Population: The share of the working population has grown from 50% to 65%. In the next 25 years one in every five working age group people will be living in India.
• Sex Ratio: In 2011, the sex ratio was 943 females per 1,000 males, by 2022, it is expected to be approximately 950 females per 1,000 males.
• Life Expectancy: In 1947, it was 32 years but in 2019 it went up to 70 years.
• Infant Mortality Rate: Declined from 133 in 1951 to 27 in 2020.
• Global Hunger Index: India stands 101 out of 116 nations.

What is Demographic Change?

• Definition: Demography is the study of human populations, and demographic change is about how human populations change over time. It encompasses various aspects like population size, composition (age, ethnicity, gender), and gender distribution.

Factors Affecting Demography

• Natural Factors: Birth rate, death rate, migration etc are the natural factors affecting demography of a nation.
  • Migration –
    • Migration is one of the major reasons behind changing the demography of the country.
    • When people move in a country, place or locality is said to immigration whereas when people move out of a country, place or locality is said to be emigration.
  • Formula for changing population are as follows:
    • Population change = (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)
• Public Policy: Public policy affects demography in a number of ways. Some of the most common areas are Family policy, immigration policy, health policy, education policy, economic policy, etc.
• Environmental Factors: Environmental factors and demography have a complex, interrelated relationship, influencing each other in various ways.
  • Climate Change: Rising temperature, changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise can impact food security, water availability, and disease prevalence, leading to migration, altered life expectancy, and potentially changing birth rates.
  • Natural Disasters: Natural disasters events like floods, droughts, earthquakes, and wildfires can significantly displace populations, causing migration and affecting birth and death rates.
  • Environmental Pollution: Air and water pollution can negatively impact health, leading to increased mortality and potentially affecting fertility rates. People migrate from metro cities to villages when all governments are all.

Implications of Demographic Challenge

• Economic Implication

  • Labour Force: High immigration can boost the workforce but it is a burden on the economy if they are not skilled. Therefore high labour force migration may require investment in training and integration.
  • Consumption spending: Changing household composition and age structures can shift consumer spending patterns, impacting industries and businesses that cater to specific demographics.

• Social Implication

  • Family structures: Changing demographics can influence family sizes, potentially giving a boost to nuclear family concepts, living arrangements, and gender roles, impacting social norms and expectations.
  • Cultural diversity: Increased migration can lead to greater cultural diversity, which can enrich communities but also present challenges in integration and social cohesion.

• Political Implication

• • Social unrest and instability: Rapid demographic changes or perceived inequalities can contribute to social unrest and political instability.
  • Representation and voting patterns: Changing demography might shift political representation and voting patterns, potentially influencing policy priorities.

What Is Demographic Dividend?

• Demographic dividend refers to the growth in an economy that is the result of a change in the age structure of a country’s population. This typically happens due to declining birth rates and mortality rates, leading to larger proportion of the population being in the working age group (15-64 years old) compared to the dependent groups (children and elderly)

What are the Conditions for a Demographic Dividend?

• Decline in Fertility Rates: When fewer children are born per family, the proportion of dependents in the population shrinks.
• Improved Healthcare and Mortality Rates: As people live longer, the working-age population expands further.

What Are Demographic Challenges in India?

• Unemployment Issue: The biggest demographic challenge before the nation is to ensure adequate supply of jobs in line with population growth. According to Forbes, the unemployment rate in 2023 was 10.05%.
• Low Human Development parameters: The rank of India in the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Index 2021 was 132 out of 191 countries, which is seriously alarming.
• Gender Imbalance: India has a lower number of females compared to males that is 106 males per 100 females (2023 data). This raises concerns about gender equality, social issues like child marriage, and potential future labour shortage.
• Healthcare and Inequality: Rural areas and disadvantaged communities often lack adequate healthcare facilities and personnel. Increasing demographic change creates disparities in health outcomes and life expectancy.
  • According to the Rural Health Statistics 2021-2022, There is a shortage of 83% of surgeons, 74% gynaecologists, 79% physicians in rural India.
  • In infrastructure, less than 45% of Primary Health Centres (CHCs) function on 24*7.
• Educational Disparity: While literacy rates are rising, disparities persist across regions and social groups. Skill development also needs improvement to match labour market demand
  • As per the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020, India aspires to achieve a Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) of 50% by 2035.
  • The All India Higher Education Survey reveals that the Gross Enrolment Ratio is still low at 27.2 percent.
• Unorganised Demographic Divide: Former Vice chairman NITI Aayog, noted that regional variation in different states are one of the biggest challenge for India’s demographic challenge. One of the best examples is the demographic divide between Southern state Kerala and Northern State Bihar.
  • The Infant Mortality Rate of Kerala in 2020 was 6 deaths per 1,000 live births but for Bihar, it was 47 deaths for every 10,000 live births according to NFHS-4.
  • Kerala is currently heading for zero growth rate in its population whereas the population growth rate of Bihar during 2011-2021 was 18.15%, the highest in India.

Way Ahead

• Improving Education Standards: Demographic changes increase rural and urban divide. Therefore, the public school system should ensure child participation in school education irrespective of rural or urban settings.
  • The combined Centre-state expenditure on education has remained at 2.8% of GDP through 2014-20.
  • This is far from the 6% of GDP promised in the 1968 education policy, which was reaffirmed in the 2020 National Education Policy.
• Improving Healthcare Requirements: Healthcare sector should be at forefront of government budgeting and schemes and better healthcare services should be made available in real time situations.
  • The National Health Policy of 2017 aimed for government spending on healthcare to reach 2.5% of GDP by 2025. 
  • But the budgetary outlay for healthcare has been range-bound between 1.2% and 1.4% in the period 2014-20. 
• Bridging Gender Gaps: Women and girls can only benefit in a 3 trillion dollar economy when they are equipped with new skills and opportunities. 
  • This can be done by initiatives like boosting tax incentives for their part-time job, increasing the creche system, impacting better childcare benefits, and legal compulsory gender budgeting.
• Situation-based Approach in States: Situation based approach in states will bring governance reforms that would improve challenges caused by demographic challenges. 
  • States need to work on different fronts based on different issues they face related to skilling, urbanisation, migration, ageing, etc.