Context:

• The NDC synthesis report for 2023 is released by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
• It assessed 168 NDCs representing 195 countries of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Together, the countries contribute 94.9 percent of global emissions.

What are the key findings of the NDC Synthesis Report 2023?

• Insufficient for 1.5°C Target: If all countries implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), global emissions will only be 2% lower in 2030 compared to 2019 levels.
  • This reduction is significantly insufficient to meet the goal of limiting global temperatures to under 1.5 degrees Celsius, as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
  • The IPCC suggests a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2019.
• Emission Projection: Despite current NDC targets, the report projects 51.6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) emissions in 2030, only marginally lower than previous estimates.
  • The previous projection was 52.4 GtCO2e emissions in 2030.
• Carbon Budget Utilization: Cumulatively, the CO2 emissions from current NDCs will use up 87% of the remaining carbon budget, leaving around 70 GtCO2e post-2030.
• Conditional Emissions Peaking: There is a possibility of global emissions peaking before 2030, but this depends on meeting the conditional elements of the NDCs.
  • Implementing only the unconditional NDCs will lead to emissions rising by 1.4 per cent in 2030 compared to 2019 levels. 
• Conditional Elements and Finance: Developing countries highlight financial and technological access as critical to achieving their NDC targets.
  • 46% of NDCs outline quantified financial support needs, and 75% identify capacity building as essential.
• Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS): Almost half of the countries outline long-term mitigation plans in their NDCs, focusing on Net Zero emissions or carbon neutrality.
  • The collective emissions of NDCs outlining LT-LEDS are projected to be 35.9 GtCO2e in 2030, 6% lower than 2019 levels.
  • The report, however, noted that many Net Zero targets remain uncertain, with action postponed beyond this critical decade.
  • 43% of LT-LEDS indicate they will guide the development of further NDCs, emphasizing the need for more ambitious emissions reduction measures.

Path Forward

• Global Stocktake Opportunity: The reports will feed into the first-ever Global Stocktake at COP28, assessing countries’ progress towards climate commitments.
• COP28 Potential: The Global Stocktake offers an opportunity to strengthen target implementation and enhance financial flows from developed to developing countries.
• Call for Action: The Executive-Secretary of UN Climate Change emphasizes the need to use the Global Stocktake to rebuild trust, deliver on commitments, and increase resilience to climate impacts worldwide.

News Source: DTE