Context

This editorial is based on the news “C Raja Mohan writes: The challenges of a Trump presidency for India” which was published in the Indian Express. As the chances of Donald Trump winning the grudge match against President Joe Biden brighten, the apprehensions of US allies in Europe and Asia are getting darker.

Geopolitical Implications of a Donald Trump Presidency

• Advantage to the Ambitions of Russia and China: 

  • A Eurasia without strong American presence and influence would be advantageous for Russia and China in pursuing their regional ambitions. 
    • Example: Russia’s assertiveness in Eastern Europe and China’s growing influence in Asia.
    • These powers could exploit divisions between the U.S. and its allies under an unpredictable Trump presidency.

• Unipolar Asia Dominated by China: 

  • American presence helps ensure a favourable balance of power.
    • Recently, the U.S. has been enhancing partnerships with India, Japan, Australia (the Quad) to counter China’s rise.

• India Must prepare for potential Volatility:

  • Shifts in Eurasia resulting from upheaval in U.S. domestic politics.
    • Example: Policy differences between Trump’s “America First” and Biden’s emphasis on alliances and multilateralism.

Concerns About Trump’s Return to Power

• Administration on the basis of Instincts: The U.S. allies worry that a second Trump term would mean less restraint by the “adults in the room” who tempered his instincts against alliances. 
  • Example: Trump considered withdrawing U.S. troops from Europe and Asia, straining long-standing security commitments.
  • Fears that Trump’s impulsive nature and transactional worldview could undermine alliance structures.
• Attitude towards U.S allies: Trump tapped into sentiment that U.S. allies were “free-riders” unwilling to contribute sufficiently to common defence.
  • There was a debate over the extent to which the U.S. should expend resources defending allies vs. focusing inward.
• Providing market access in exchange of geopolitical favours: Trump rejected the long-standing bargain of the U.S. providing market access in exchange for geopolitical alignment by partners.
  • Arguing this came at the cost of American manufacturing jobs in an uneven playing field.
  • In his first term, Trump targeted not just China but even European and Asian allies with tariffs.