Context
This editorial is based on the news “C Raja Mohan writes: The challenges of a Trump presidency for India” which was published in the Indian Express. As the chances of Donald Trump winning the grudge match against President Joe Biden brighten, the apprehensions of US allies in Europe and Asia are getting darker.
Assessment of Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Record (2017-2021)
- Trump’s administration increased pressure on Moscow: Tougher sanctions, diplomatic expulsions, opposition to Nord Stream 2 pipeline were launched during Trump’s regime.
- Actions towards China: There was a decisive shift to counter China’s growing assertiveness and Trump began decoupling the U.S. economy from China.
- The US administration also imposed tariffs on Chinese imports to address trade imbalances.
- Initiated measures to reduce supply chain dependence on China.
- Aimed at working with democratic partners to balance China in the region.
- Subsequent Biden administration has built upon and expanded this approach.
- Revived QUAD: Trump revived the Quad dialogue with India, Japan and Australia as part of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy.
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Geopolitical Implications of a Donald Trump Presidency
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Advantage to the Ambitions of Russia and China:
- A Eurasia without strong American presence and influence would be advantageous for Russia and China in pursuing their regional ambitions.
- Example: Russia’s assertiveness in Eastern Europe and China’s growing influence in Asia.
- These powers could exploit divisions between the U.S. and its allies under an unpredictable Trump presidency.
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Unipolar Asia Dominated by China:
- American presence helps ensure a favourable balance of power.
- Recently, the U.S. has been enhancing partnerships with India, Japan, Australia (the Quad) to counter China’s rise.
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India Must prepare for potential Volatility:
- Shifts in Eurasia resulting from upheaval in U.S. domestic politics.
- Example: Policy differences between Trump’s “America First” and Biden’s emphasis on alliances and multilateralism.
Concerns About Trump’s Return to Power
- Administration on the basis of Instincts: The U.S. allies worry that a second Trump term would mean less restraint by the “adults in the room” who tempered his instincts against alliances.
- Example: Trump considered withdrawing U.S. troops from Europe and Asia, straining long-standing security commitments.
- Fears that Trump’s impulsive nature and transactional worldview could undermine alliance structures.
- Attitude towards U.S allies: Trump tapped into sentiment that U.S. allies were “free-riders” unwilling to contribute sufficiently to common defence.
- There was a debate over the extent to which the U.S. should expend resources defending allies vs. focusing inward.
- Providing market access in exchange of geopolitical favours: Trump rejected the long-standing bargain of the U.S. providing market access in exchange for geopolitical alignment by partners.
- Arguing this came at the cost of American manufacturing jobs in an uneven playing field.
- In his first term, Trump targeted not just China but even European and Asian allies with tariffs.
Implications and Imperatives for India:
- Defence and Security: There is strong convergence between U.S. need for capable partners and India’s great power ambitions.
- There is an opportunity to deepen defence ties, co-development, intelligence sharing, interoperability with the U.S. and its allies.
- Issue with respect to Tariffs: On the economic front, India faces challenges given Trump’s views on India’s tariff levels and past failure to reach a trade deal.
- Trump called India the “tariff king” and ended India’s preferential trade status under the GSP program.
- Trade and Technology Partner: For India, the U.S. is one its most promising trade and technology partners so it cannot afford a breakdown in economic relations.
- Sectors like services trade, high-tech, startups, renewable energy, education seeing growing two-way engagement.
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Also Read: US India Initiative On Critical And Emerging Technology
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March 13, 2024
