Recently, four top officials of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate visited Dhaka for talks with their Bangladeshi counterparts.

Pakistan-Bangladesh Relations

• Diplomatic Engagements: This recent visit  was followed by a Bangladeshi military delegation’s six-member visit to Pakistan. 
  • It marked the first ISI visit to Bangladesh since 2009, with the previous public visit dating back to 1989.
  • Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Mohammad Yunus twice (September & December) to discuss trade and cultural ties.
• Upswing: Relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan have seen an upswing, coinciding with fraying India-Bangladesh ties.
• Naval Exercise: A Bangladeshi warship recently participated in a multinational naval exercise hosted by Pakistan off the Karachi coast.
• Historical Background: Despite the violent liberation movement, Pakistan swiftly repaired its ties with Bangladesh post-1971.
  • Under the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) governments (1991-1996 & 2001-2006), significant diplomatic exchanges occurred with Pakistan.
  • Some clandestine activities linked to Pakistan during this period had implications for India.

Implications for India

• Insurgency in North East: Pakistan’s ISI has historically supported separatist movements in India using bases in former East Pakistan. 
  • Hans Kiessling, a historian, noted ISI’s backing of the Naga insurgency since the 1950s.
  • In the 1990s-2000s, ISI actively aided ULFA, Mizo, Manipuri, and Tripura separatists via its Dhaka embassy.
• Infiltration: ISI also used the porous Indo-Bangladeshi border to infiltrate India, facilitating terror activities. 
  • Example: Jaish-e-Muhammad chief Masood Azhar, arrested in 1993, was released after the IC-814 hijack in 1999.
• Security Measures: India initiated fencing along the Bangladesh border in the mid-2000s to curb infiltration. 
  • The riverine terrain, however, makes complete border security difficult.
•  Rule of Hasina: The Sheikh Hasina-led government took significant steps to crack down on terrorism, benefiting regional security.
• Military Exchanges: High-level military exchanges may lead to enhanced defence cooperation. Possible joint naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal.
• Supplying arms: Risk of Pakistan supplying Abdali ballistic missiles to Bangladesh.
• Countering India: Bangladesh’s strategy to reduce dependence on India aligns with Pakistan’s goal of countering Delhi.
• Economic Concerns: India-Bangladesh trade is worth ~$15 billion,significantly higher than Bangladesh-Pakistan trade. 
  • Diversification of economic partnerships could reduce Bangladesh’s dependence on India. 
• Impact on Regional Policy: Bangladesh’s central role in BIMSTEC, India’s alternative to SAARC. Deterioration in ties may weaken India’s regional economic initiatives.
• Alliance with China: China is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner and key infrastructure investor.  China is a major supplier of weapons to Bangladesh’s military. 
  • Pakistan-China alliance could leverage Bangladesh to counter India’s influence in South Asia.

Way Forward for India

• Navigating Political Uncertainty: Awami League sidelined; BNP open to engagement with India. Presence of anti-India factions like Jamaat-e-Islami, which regained relevance after recent anti-Hasina uprisings.
• Border Security: Prevent infiltration and cross-border threats.
• Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: Intelligence-sharing and security collaboration.
• Managing Bilateral Relations: Engage Without Hostility and maintain diplomatic dialogue with the Interim Government.
• Address Anti-India Sentiments: Dhaka must protect the Hindu minority and counter misinformation.
• Leverage Global Partners: Engage the U.S., UK, and EU, Bangladesh’s key trade partners. Use economic diplomacy to maintain regional influence.

Conclusion

India must adopt a strategic, multi-dimensional approach—balancing security, economic engagement, and diplomatic outreach—to prevent Pakistan from gaining undue influence in Bangladesh.