Gearing Up For Change: On IMD And Weather Analyses

Context:

Relevancy for Prelims: India Meteorological Department (IMD), Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), Tropical Cyclones, Southwest Monsoon, and Changing Rainfall Patterns In India’s Sub-Districts.

Relevancy for Mains: India Meteorological Department (IMD)- Significance, Concerns and Way Forward.

To probe the mysteries of the southwest monsoon.
Practical Need: The British administration, concerned about revenues, was aware of the influence of the monsoon on harvests and thus invested in predicting the monsoon.
In the years since then, the IMD has collected huge stores of meteorological data that underlie its forecasts of the monsoon.

At present, IMD analyzes the entire spectrum of climate and weather, from cyclones to fog.

CEEW Data: The Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) examines monsoon trends at the sub-divisional (tehsil) level, from 1982-2022.

Parameter	Findings
Monsoon Rainfall Trends Across Tehsils (sub-districts) 1982-2022	55% of tehsils saw increased rainfall and 11% of tehsils saw decreased rainfall
Tehsils with Decreased Rainfall	68% saw reduced rainfall in all four monsoon months and 87% showed reduced rainfall in June and July specifically
Locations Most Affected by Decreased Rainfall	Indo-Gangetic plains, Northeast India and Himalayan region
Contribution of These Regions to Farm Production	Over half of India’s agricultural production
Monsoon Rainfall Trends Across Districts	30% of districts witnessed several deficient rainfall years and 38% witnessed several excessive rainfall years
Historically Dry Regions Getting Wetter	Rajasthan, Gujarat, Central Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu
Increased Rainfall in October- December Northeast Monsoon	10% increase over last decade across 80% tehsils in Tamil Nadu, 44% in Telangana, 39% in Andhra Pradesh
Share of Rainfall from Various Monsoons	Southwest monsoon – 76% of annual rainfall and Northeast monsoon – 11% of annual rainfall

Need for Regional Specific Plans: While revenue extraction guided colonial interest in weather at the regional levels, such analyses have a new, contemporary relevance. Now the time has come to make region-specific plans to improve climate resilience and channel necessary funds and resources.
Need to Focus on Local Data: Prioritizing regional and sub-district forecasts over national ones, would be a commendable step forward by the government.