Context: This editorial is based on the news “Bangladesh elections today: The significance for India, explained” which was published in the Indian Express. This article highlights why the polls in the neighborhood (Bangladesh) matter from a strategic and economic perspective for India.

The Election Scenario in Bangladesh

• The Awami League (AL), led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has ruled Bangladesh since 2009 whereas the main opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by former Prime Minister Khalida Zia boycotted the recent election amid violence.
• • Concerns such as corruption and inflation have also been associated with the protests and boycotts.
• Suppression of Dissent: The government in Bangladesh is stifling dissent by permitting the arrest of opposition members and impeding their campaign by threatening and brutally attacking their supporters. 

Significance of Bangladesh Elections for India

• India supports the incumbent, Sheikh Hasina as she has nurtured a friendly and mutually advantageous relationship between the two countries over the years.
• She is the daughter of Mujibur Rehman who served as the first President of Bangladesh and President of Awami League and later as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh from 17 April 1971 until his assassination on 15 August 1975.

Political Parties of Bangladesh and its Ramifications on India-Bangladesh Relations

Awami League (AL)

• Acting against Security Threats: It alleviated India’s security challenges along the eastern border of India with proactive measures in tackling terror groups and militancy.
  • It acted against ethnic insurgent groups operating from Bangladesh.
  • Bangladesh signed an Extradition treaty in 2013 for deporting militants to India.
  • It handed over key leaders of the secessionist (United Liberation Front of Asom to India.
• Action against anti-India Militant Groups: It cracked down on such activities which operated training camps and transported arms through routes in Bangladeshi territory.
• Land Boundary Agreement: The historic agreement facilitated the transfer of 111 enclaves, from India to Bangladesh. Conversely, India received 51 enclaves which were in Bangladesh.
• Line of Credit: In 2010, during Hasina’s visit to India, India extended $1 billion in credit to Bangladesh under its development assistance programme. 
• Ganga Water Treaty: In 1996, both countries signed the Ganga Water Treaty.
• Connectivity to the North Eastern States: Access to India’s northeastern region via Bangladesh diminishes the vulnerability previously associated with connecting to the northeast solely through the Siliguri Corridor, commonly referred to as the Chicken’s Neck region.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Alliance

• Hostility Towards India: The BNP alliance is supported by radical, orthodox political forces, like Jamaat-e-Islami. It displayed hostility towards India and was allegedly linked to Pakistan’s ISI.
• Support to Islamist Radicals: It accuses India of acting against the interests of Muslims.
• Support for Anti- India Activities: BNP had close ties to Islamist fundamentalist groups.
• Ties with China: The BNP has developed strong relationships with India’s strategic rival China.

Challenges in India-Bangladesh Relations

• Sanction by US: The US has openly expressed its dissatisfaction with the ‘undemocratic’ procedures used in the election and it may force increased dependence of Bangladesh on China.
• Chinese Factor: Bangladesh aligns strategically with China with its investments in BRI-financed infrastructure projects having surpassed $10 billion. 
  • Bangladesh’s two-way trade with China exceeded $25 billion in 2022. 
• Concerns of  Minorities: The Hindu minorities in Bangladesh have faced atrocities by the majority population. Hindus comprise a meager 8% of the country’s population.
• Concerns of Influx of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants from Bangladesh: The influx of illegal migrants from Bangladesh into West Bengal and Assam has created demographic challenges as well as posed a burden on resources meant for Indian citizens.
  • Human Trafficking, Drug Trafficking, Cattle Smuggling, and Smuggling of goods are other serious challenges.
• Water Sharing Issues: The Teesta River is a major point of contention.

Way Forward

• India needs to engage with whoever holds power in Bangladesh.
• Addressing the issue of illegal migration and ensuring that they do not acquire voting rights and Indian nationality.
• Need for institutionalizing the Security Cooperation. 
• Need to resolve the Water Sharing Issue and early resolution of the Teesta issue is necessary. 
• Encouragement in the growth of people-to-people contact.