Context

This editorial is based on the news “China lodges protest against PM Modi’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh to inaugurate Sela Tunnel” which was published in the Business Today. China lodges protest over PM Modi’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh, where he dedicated the newly built Sela Tunnel to the nation.

• Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British Think Tank  has forecasted China’s aggression towards India between 2025-2030.

China lodges Protest Against Indian PM Visit to Arunachal Pradesh to Inaugurate Sela Tunnel

• Inauguration of Sela Tunnel: The PM inaugurated the Sela tunnel, constructed at an altitude of 13,000 ft in Arunachal Pradesh.
  • It connects Assam’s Tezpur to the West Kameng district in Arunachal Pradesh.
  • It will also ensure better movement of troops along the frontier region.
• Chinese Objections: China claims Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet routinely objects to Indian leaders’ visits to the state to highlight its claims. 
  • China has also named the area as Zangnan.
• Rejection of Chinese Territorial Claims: India has repeatedly rejected China’s territorial claims over Arunachal Pradesh, asserting that the state is an integral part of the country.

Reasons for Possible Conflict Between India and China as Per Royal United Services Institute

• Energy Security of China and Malacca Dilemma: 

  • China is dependent on Oil Imports for its Energy Security. 
    • 70% of its oil and 60% Trade Cargo passes through Malacca Strait which is close to Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
    • Therefore, there is a possibility of India choking Malacca Strait which may be damaging to China’s Economy.
      • Example- In the Red Sea, Houthi Rebels and Somali Pirates have trouble the entire Maritime Route. 

• Operation Prosperity Guardian: 

  • It is a United States-led military operation by a multinational coalition formed in December 2023 to respond to Houthi-led attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
    • India also conducted several successful operations to tackle rebel attacks and demonstrated its capacity as a Net Security Provider in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
    • China started the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2015 to counter the Malacca Dilemma. 

• Necklace of Diamond Strategy of India in opposition to China’s String of Pearls: 

• • India aims to counter China’s encirclement by improving its naval presence, expanding military bases, and enhancing relationships with strategically positioned countries.
  • India’s Strategic Bases: Changi Naval Base, Singapore, Sabang Port, Indonesia, Duqm Port, Oman, Assumption Island, Seychelles, Chabahar Port, Iran.

• Possibility of War in Ladakh:

  • Along the Line of Actual Control between India and China in Eastern Ladakh.
    • The Indian Army is swiftly upgrading its capability and infrastructure in the Ladakh sector. Example- The construction of Daulat Beg Oldie Road.
    • According to some think tanks India is also upgrading its capacity to attack the Kashgar region in Xinjiang, a western region of China, which is home to substantial oil and gas reserves. 

• Timing of the Suspected War

• • Russia: India is dependent on Russia for a majority of its imports of military equipment. However, Russia is engaged in war with Ukraine.
  • US and Israel: The US is heavily involved in providing military support to Ukraine and Israel in their conflicts with Russia and Gaza, respectively.
  • This could hinder the  ability of these countries to meet India’s urgent military requirements in a potential war with China.

Conclusion

India indeed possesses significant defence capabilities. With a large and well-trained military, advanced weaponry, and strategic geographical positioning, and previous experience with Wars, India is prepared to safeguard its sovereignty and protect its citizens in the event of conflict.