On May 10, 2025, a ceasefire between India and Pakistan was announced after the Pahalgam attack. Despite hopes for de-escalation, immediate violations exposed its fragility, reflecting deep-rooted hostility and strategic mistrust.

About Ceasefire

• Refers: A temporary suspension of hostilities, not a legal end to conflict.
• Forms: Can be written or oral, and may involve third-party mediation.
• Legal View: Under international law, it is a step towards peace, not peace itself.
• Violations: Governed by Hague Regulations (1910) — includes provisions for resuming hostilities or seeking compensation.

Key Components of a Ceasefire Agreement

• Timing: Specifies start time/date.
• Prohibited Acts:
  • Military: Troop movement, weapon use
  • Non-military: Propaganda, threats
• Separation of Forces: Ceasefire lines, buffer zones
• Monitoring: By UN missions, joint or civilian observers
• Additional Measures: Includes POW repatriation, return of refugees, compensation claims.

Why Ceasefires with Pakistan Often Fail?

• Zero-sum Doctrine: Pakistan treats peace as a strategic pause, not resolution.
• Tactical Use: Uses ceasefires to regroup militarily.
• Historical Pattern:
  • Kargil War (1999) came after a ceasefire.
  • Deep state tactics often override official commitments.
• Emotional Symbolism:
  • For Pakistan: Kashmir = Muslim identity
  • For India: Kashmir = national sovereignty
• Ideological Divide: Rooted in identity and ideology, not just territory.

Terrorism: A Strategic Tool for Pakistan

• Avoids conventional war due to military inferiority.
• Supports non-state actors to internationalize Kashmir.
• Example: 26/11 attacks targeted Mumbai’s economy and India’s global stature.
• State-Non-State Nexus: Pakistan uses terror with state support as part of foreign policy.

India’s Strategic Shift Post-2016

• Doctrine Change: No longer distinguishes between state and non-state actors.
• OODA Loop Strategy: Rapid and unpredictable retaliation.
• Key Actions:
  • Balakot airstrike (2019)
  • Operation Sindoor
• Global Diplomacy: Building international support for retaliation.

Pakistan’s Global Strategy

• Hyphenation Attempt: Seeks parity with India on the world stage.
• Kashmir Focus: Tries to keep issues on global agenda.
• Third-party Mediation: Frequently invited, mostly rejected by India.
• Narrative Warfare: Promotes victimhood narrative abroad.

Pakistan’s ‘Bonsai Democracy’

• Military Dominance: Civilians have little foreign/security policy control.
• Silencing of Leaders: Elected leaders often jailed or sidelined.
• Recent Developments:
  • Gen. Asim Munir called Kashmir the “jugular vein.”
  • Attack followed — not coincidental.

India’s Strategic & Diplomatic Options

• Review Treaties:
  • Indus Waters Treaty
  • Shimla Agreement
• Diplomatic Pressure:
  • Push claim over PoK
  • Build global coalitions
• Narrative Counter:
  • Support Baluchistan movement.
  • Target Pakistan’s internal contradictions.

Conclusion

The fragile ceasefire highlights the persistent ideological divide, Pakistan’s use of proxy warfare, and India’s evolving security doctrine. Long-term peace depends on mutual credibility, sustained restraint, and dismantling of state-sponsored terror networks.