Context

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash in northwestern Iran due to bad weather has sent shockwaves throughout West Asia.

Rise of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi

• Raisi’s Rise to Power in 2021: Ebrahim Raisi, a conservative cleric, rose to power in 2021 after eight years of rule by moderate President Hassan Rouhani, who signed the 2015 nuclear deal with the U.S. and other world powers. 

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• Rouhani’s Unfulfilled Promises: Mr. Rouhani’s promise of change and prosperity through dialogue did not materialize as the then U.S. President Donald Trump sabotaged the deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran.
• Conservative Ascendancy: When moderates lost their face and morale, the conservatives tightened their grip on the state through Raisi.
• Progress During Raisi’s Rule: A confidant of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Raisi escalated a crackdown on civil rights at home
  • Strengthened Iran’s ties with Russia and China
  • Doubled down on its support for non-state militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah and expanded Iran’s nuclear programme.
• Potential Successor: In three years, he emerged as one of Iran’s most powerful men and was seen as a potential successor to Mr. Khamenei.  

Challenges Following Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi Death

• Economic Struggles and Social Unrest: Iran’s President’s demise arrives amidst economic turmoil due to U.S. sanctions and efforts to quell social unrest.
• External Challenges: The nuclear agreement remains defunct, and tensions escalate in the Middle East.
  •  In April, Raisi orchestrated an unprecedented assault on Israel in retaliation for their strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Israel’s restrained response averted a full-scale conflict, yet tensions persist.
• Loss of Influential Figures: Iran has suffered the loss of prominent officials in recent years. With the passing of Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian, the Islamic Republic mourns the loss of seasoned leaders—a crisis-tested cleric-administrator and a seasoned diplomat.
• Rise of Conspiracy Theories: Amidst geopolitical tensions, Raisi’s passing might ignite conspiracy theories, exacerbating regional tensions.

Way Forward

• Investigation of the Crash: It’s essential for Iran to thoroughly investigate the crash.
• Smooth Transition to New Presidency: Ensuring a seamless transition to a new presidency is paramount. First Vice-President Mohammed Mokhber will temporarily assume presidential duties, with a presidential election expected within 50 days.

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Conclusion

A change in presidency is unlikely to alter Iran’s foreign policy direction, but the loss of one of the most experienced and ideologically disciplined defenders of the revolution and a transition amid domestic and regional uncertainties, is an added challenge to the Islamic Republic.