Context

The recent victory of Maldives President Moḥammad Muizzu’s party, the PNC, in the parliamentary elections carries significant implications. 

Victory of Muḥammad Muizzu in Elections

• PNC’s Political Triumph: With a commanding “super-majority” of over 70 out of 93 Members of Parliament, including allies and independents, the PNC’s triumph not only solidifies Mr. Muizzu’s political standing, but also paves the way for smoother legislative processes.
• Endorsement of Leadership Actions: The electorate’s endorsement of his actions since assuming office including his diplomatic engagements with China, Turkey, and the UAE, as well as his meetings with senior U.S. officials, while maintaining a certain distance from India, underscores the widespread approval of his leadership decisions.

Muḥammad Muizzu and His Engagement with India

• Call for Troop Withdrawal: Muizzu  insisted in December 2023 on the complete withdrawal of Indian troops responsible for humanitarian operations in the archipelago, a demand he has since implemented.
• Termination of Hydrography Agreement: Muizzu has terminated a hydrography agreement with India, signaling a strategic shift in favor of bolstering ties with China to achieve a more balanced foreign policy and reduce reliance on external powers.
• Concerns Over India: Concerns have been raised among Maldivian leaders and commentators regarding what they perceive as a rise in majoritarianism in India.
• Escalating Tensions: Exacerbation of tensions is further evidenced by derogatory remarks about the Indian Prime Minister made by Maldivian Ministers, contributing to a sense of unease within India.
• Decline in Indian Tourist Arrivals: There has been a noticeable decline in Indian tourist arrivals to the Maldives, reflecting the escalating diplomatic friction between the two nations.

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Way Forward

• Opportunity for India-Maldives Relations: With the recent Maldivian election results and the impending Indian election outcomes in June, there arises an opportunity for New Delhi and Male to address their strained relations.
• Pro-Maldives” Policy: President Muizzu’s assertion of prioritizing a “pro-Maldives” policy over alignment with either India or China warrants observation, while affording him time to demonstrate that his actions do not compromise India’s security or regional stability.

Conclusion

Recognizing and tackling existing bilateral challenges will enable India and the Maldives to navigate the intricacies of their relationship, fostering a more robust, resilient, and mutually advantageous partnership for the future.