Pakistan Election 2024: Coalition Government and Amidst Military Influence

Context: 

This editorial is based on the news “Pakistan parties intensify efforts to form coalition government after split verdict in February 8 elections” which was published in the Hindu. Pakistan parties intensified efforts to form a coalition government after split verdict in recent Prime Ministerial Elections. This article highlights that the current situation is strategic for the Pakistan military.

Pakistan Election 2024: No Clear Mandate

• Role of Pakistan Military: Analysts attribute the split verdict to behind-the-scenes manipulation by the powerful military establishment to weaken mainstream parties and prevent a dominant civilian government.
• No Level-playing Field: Pre-poll engineering through court cases, confiscations and harassment meant no party contested elections with a level playing field.
• Delay for Results: The counting process was also delayed inexplicably pointing to potential vote rigging.
• Others: Selective disqualifications, allegedly under army pressure, prevented leaders like Nawaz Sharif from contesting.

Blow to Military’s Standing

• A Moral Victory to PTI: Despite engineering against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), its electoral performance represents a moral victory and erosion of the army’s standing.
• Public Frustration: The public sentiment indicates growing frustration with the military dotting civilian governments since independence.
• No to Dynastic Party: Dynastic parties like PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz), and PPP (Pakistan People’s Party) have also been unable to overcome their reputational damage despite the tilt in their favor.

Army’s Game Plan

• A Fragile Coalition: According to experts on Pakistan, the Pakistan military wants a fragile coalition that it can control instead of a strong opposition leader like Imran Khan who challenges its authority.
• On Imran Khan: He was ousted in an army-backed no-confidence vote in 2022 after he demanded control over security policy and senior appointments.
• On Nawaz Sharif: He has also accused the army of political engineering and tried to clip its wings when in power.
  • A divided National Assembly serves their interests best.

India Ties Still Hostage to Army Agenda

• Diplomacy: Engaging the new civilian government makes little diplomatic sense if real authority lies with the military leadership.
  • But dealing directly with the military has its downsides too as they use talks merely as tactical ploys against India.
• Security: The army could also encourage cross-border tensions with India by a new government to escape its governance failures.

Conclusion

To achieve stability and peace in the nation, an elected government with full mandate is desirable. Any coalition led government is unstable and in Pakistan’s current scenario, it would be difficult to work for a coalition government freed from the dominant influence of the military.