Prisoner’s Dilemma in International Relations

Context:

• This article is based on an Editorial “Rajnath Singh talks about ‘prisoner’s dilemma’ in international relations: What is this concept” which was published in the Indian Express. Recently, in an address at the Goa Maritime Conclave, Indian Defence Minister referred to the concept of “Prisoner’s Dilemma” to underscore the need for countries to collaborate with each other instead of working at cross purposes.

What is the Prisoner’s Dilemma?

• Self-Interest of Individuals: A paradox in decision analysis in which two individuals acting in their own self-interests do not produce the optimal outcome.
• Understanding the Behavior: It refers to one of the most popular ‘games’ in Game Theory, a branch of science that helps understand how people behave under different circumstances. It also shows how to achieve the best outcome.

Prison’s Dilemma in International Relations

• Analyze the Challenge: It can explain and analyze various situations where countries face strategic decision-making challenges. 
  • For example, when two or more countries engage in an arms race, they often do so out of mutual fear and mistrust.
• Benefit to Use: To find solutions that promote cooperation, build trust, and mitigate the risks associated with the Prisoner’s Dilemma situations in international relations.

An Illustration: Suppose two people, A and B committed a crime together and are brought in for questioning about that crime

• If the police don’t have more credible evidence and both don’t confess their crime, then they can achieve jail maximum for a year each. 
• So the police officer puts both A and B in separate rooms and provides both of them an option if one prisoner says the other is involved in the crime, he can get-free and the other will be given a 10-year jail term.
• If both confess, then their jail times will be 10 years each.  
• Here, the prisoner’s dilemma is whether to confess or stay silent.
• Hence, the best outcome is to cooperate and receive 1 year of jail.

Also Read: Qatar Court Sentences 8 Ex Indian Navy Personnel to Death: How It Affects India Qatar Relations

Conclusion:

The best outcome lies in cooperation. Countries should set some ground rules in geopolitics to ensure they don’t enter an arms race that will eventually prove ruinous for their own economies and people.