India faces an escalating climate crisis marked by extreme weather, rising temperatures, and erratic monsoons. Despite growing evidence and risks, India’s response remains fragmented, lacking a comprehensive framework for climate physical risk (CPR) assessment.

Rising Climate Physical Risks

• High Climate Exposure: Over 80% of India’s population lives in climate risk-prone districts.
• Types of Climate Risks (CPRs): Include acute shocks (floods, heatwaves) and chronic stresses (droughts, shifting monsoons).
• Systemic Impact: These risks threaten public health, economic stability, and national security.

Reactive Adaptation & Skewed Focus

• Reactive Approach: India’s adaptation strategies are mostly short-term and not based on future climate projections.
• Adaptation Undermined by Finance Gap: Climate finance remains focused on mitigation, underfunding critical adaptation infrastructure.
• High Returns on Adaptation: Every $1 invested in adaptation yields up to $4 in avoided losses, making it economically sound.

Understanding CPR: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability

• Refers: The IPCC framework defines CPRs through:
  • Hazard (e.g., floods, cyclones, heatwaves)
  • Exposure (who/what is at risk)
  • Vulnerability (capacity to withstand and recover)
• Scale: These three factors determine the true scale of climate risk.

Evolving Regulatory Landscape

• Global Disclosure Shift: Movement from voluntary to mandatory CPR disclosures is accelerating globally.
• RBI’s Climate Risk Push: The Reserve Bank of India is embedding climate risk in its financial regulations.
• Global Standards Driving Change: Frameworks like IFRS ISSB S2 are integrating climate risk into business planning.

Fragmented National Approach

• Lack of Unified System in India: CPR-related resources like flood maps and vulnerability atlases are fragmented and uncoordinated.
• Inadequacy of Global Models: Models like Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways fail to capture India’s regional climate variation.
• Data Challenges: Absence of standardised data hinders both government policy and business decisions.

Initial Steps Taken

• Adaptation Communication Milestone: India submitted its first official Adaptation Communication under the Paris Agreement’s Article 7 in 2023.
• Comprehensive National Plan Underway: A new National Adaptation Plan (NAP) aims to cover nine sectors at the district level.

The Path Ahead

• Need for Dedicated CPR Tool: India must develop a dedicated CPR tool that includes:
  • Localised climate modelling
  • Granular risk assessments
  • A centralised data hub
  • Transparent, science-based methodologies
  • Iterative feedback loops
• Policy and Private Sector Support: This will support both public policy design and private sector risk management.

Conclusion

India’s climate resilience demands a shift from reactive responses to proactive, data-driven risk assessments. A robust CPR framework is essential to ensure that progress under Viksit Bharat is both sustainable and future-proof.