Warming warning: On the World Meteorological Organization projections for temperature trends

Context:

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued its annual update on its projections for temperature trends in the next decade. 

The Worrying Prognosis: 

• The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is likely to be 1.1°-1.8°C higher than the average from 1850-1900.
• There is a high chance that temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
• At least one of the years, the WMO adds, from 2023 to 2027 will be the hottest on record.

The oceans too are on fire:

• The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to be positive in December to February 2023-24, meaning that the Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to be at least half a degree, more likely over a degree above what is normal. 
• El Niño: The India Meteorological Department already indicated that monsoon rainfall will be on the lower side of ‘normal’. 
  • As per WMO, the El Niño “will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory”.
• Hotter oceans also mean stronger cyclones. 
• Cyclone Mocha which barrelled through Myanmar this week and claimed at least 60 lives and wrought severe damage, ended up being stronger than what was initially estimated. 

Conclusion:

• India’s abilities at forecasting cyclones and weather anomalies have improved but developing resilience is far more challenging. Greater investments in bolstering disaster-related infrastructure are the need of the hour.

News Source: The Hindu