Exit Polls: Role in Electoral System, Analysis, and Regulations

PWOnlyIAS November 29, 2023 03:31 3110 0

Context: Results of the exit poll conducted by different media organisations in all the five poll-bound states will be out only after voting in Telangana ends - at 6 pm on November 30.

Exit Polls: Role in Electoral System, Analysis, and Regulations

Understanding Exit Polls: Their Significance and Evolution in Electoral Analysis

Exit Polls are the opinion taken from the voters immediately after they have exited the polling stations.
- Private entities usually conduct exit polls to gain an early indication of election results.
Origin: Marcel van Dam (Dutch sociologist) was the first to implement exit polls during the Dutch legislative elections on February 15, 1967.
- While many consider Warren Mitofsky, an American pollster, for devising an exit poll in the Kentucky gubernatorial election.
Objective of the Exit Polls:
- To collect demographic data about voters and their voting pattern.
- It is used as a rough indicator to identify election fraud, like it did in Venezuelan and Ukrainian elections.
- It is used to determine whether or not a particular political campaign was successful or not.

Exit Poll: Nature and Methodology

Nature of Data Collected	Method
How the respondent voted in the election A variety of belief held by the voter such as the issues that were important in determining their vote and their party affiliation The demographic characteristics of the voter such as their age, gender, race and level of education.	The survey agency selects a random sample size to conduct an exit poll. All constituencies are not surveyed for accurately predicting the results. However, it is ensured that the sample size is geographically, socially and demographically representative. The Uniform Regional Swing method is used by agencies to convert vote share into seats.

Understanding the Limitations in Electoral Predictions

Margin of Error: It by nature do include a margin of error. This could be due to a small sample size or inadequate representation.
Shy Voters: In many cases, the voters may not give their actual preferences due to fear of political implications. Hence the final results may differ.
Absentee Voters: It does not cover absentee voters, who may vote through postal ballots. This could potentially alter the equations in close elections.

Analyzing the Dynamics of Exit Polls: Insights and Scrutiny

Significance:
- Direction of Opinion: Exit polls are an indication of which way the winds are blowing in an election, along with the issues, personalities, and loyalties that have influenced voters.
- Political Post Mortem: The data from exit polls are used by political parties to address their shortcomings and devise a new strategy.
Criticism:
- Biased Reporting: In many countries, exit-polls have been criticized for their biased opinion, which in turn could influence voting patterns in the next round of voting.
- Early Prediction: Early winner prediction could discourage voters from exercising their votes, as they believe results have already been decided.
- Political Favoritism: There are allegations that agencies publishing exit-polls are financed by rival political parties to influence elections.
- Small Sample Size: Agencies often collect data from a small sample size, which does not give the actual representation of opinion.
- Public Opinion: Opinion of public can depend on the nature of the question asked. Hence their opinion and actual result may vary.

Evolution of Exit Poll Regulations in Indian Electoral System

History: During the second Lok Sabha elections in 1957, the Indian Institute of Public Opinion had conducted such a poll. It can be considered the first such exercise.
Article 324 of the Constitution: The Election Commission prohibits newspapers and news channels from publishing results of pre-election surveys and exit polls during voting.
- It was mandatory for channels and newspapers to disclose the sample size of the electorate, the details of polling methodology, the margin of error and the background of the polling agency, during publishing.
- In absence of statutory backing, the guidelines could not be implemented.
Section 126 (A) of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951:
- Exit and opinion polls were banned by making amendments in the section, for a period specified by the Commission.
- Punishment: A two-year prison term or fine or both were prescribed for an individual or agency violating the directive.
Recent Changes:
- The Election Commission of India has barred media organizations from displaying results of exit-polls before votes are cast.
- Media houses can show the results only after the last vote has been cast and no further voting is left in any part of jurisdiction.

Opinion Polls

Opinion polls are a form of opinion given by the voters before actual voting takes place.
Opinion polls are predecessor for exit polls.
Opinion polls capture pre-voting sentiments whereas exit-polls capture post-voting sentiments.

Exit Polls and Opinion Poll Regulation Across the World

Country	Regulations
France	France has banned opinion polls for 24 hours ahead of voting day. The previous seven-day ban imposed by France in 1977 was overturned by a court.
European Union	In the EU, 16 countries have banned the reporting of opinion polls, with time frames ranging from a month to just 24 hours before polling day.
United Kingdom	The UK does not restrict publishing of the results of opinion polls. However, exit polls results can’t be shared until the voting is over.
United States	There are no restrictions on publishing opinion polls. However, media groups have voluntarily decided not to publish results of exit polls until completion of voting.
Germany	It is a criminal offense to release exit poll figures in Germany, before all polling stations have closed.
Bulgaria	It is illegal to release exit poll results on election day.
Singapore	Singapore has imposed a complete ban on exit polls.

Model Code of Conduct (MCC)

It is a set of guidelines that the Election Commission (EC) of India issues for candidates and political parties during elections.
Enforcement: The MCC comes into effect as soon as the EC announces election schedule.
- The MCC was introduced in order to conduct free and fair elections.
Origin: The first instance of MCC can be found during the Assembly elections of Kerala in 1960, when the State administration prepared a ‘Code of Conduct’ for political actors.
- A strict enforcement of MCC was decided by the EC after norms were flouted continuously by political parties.
Legality: MCC does not have a statutory backing but EC enforces them through statutes such as the IPC 1860, CrPC 1973, and RPA 1951.

Upholding Electoral Integrity: MCC and Exit Polls in India

During Speech: Political criticism must be limited to policies and programmes. Using caste and communal feelings to secure votes must be strictly avoided.
Political Meetings: Local police authorities have to be informed prior to conduction of political meetings.
Political Processions: To avoid clashing between political candidates, political parties must establish contact in advance.
Booth Agent: Booth agents having suitable badges or identity cards are allowed to enter the polling booth.
Restrictions on Party in Power: Ministers are not allowed to combine official visits with election work or use official machinery for the purpose of elections.
- After the announcement of the election schedule, ministers must refrain from promising financial grants, or construction of roads, provision of drinking water, etc.
Election Manifesto: Contents of the manifesto must not violate the ideals and principles enshrined in the Constitution.
- Political parties must not make promises that violate the purity of the election process or exert undue influence on voters.
- The manifesto must not be released during the prohibitory period.
Advertisements: Unless pre-certified by screening committees, advertisements in print media on polling day and one day prior to it are not allowed.

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Exit Polls FAQs

Exit Polls are the opinion taken from the voters immediately after they have exited the polling stations.

During the second Lok Sabha elections in 1957, the Indian Institute of Public Opinion had conducted such a poll. It can be considered the first such exercise.

Exit polls are used to collect demographic data about voters and their voting pattern. Exit poll is also used as a rough indicator to identify election fraud.

Countries such as Germany, Singapore, UK, India, EU etc have imposed restrictions on exit polls.

The difference between exit polls and opinion polls is that opinion polls capture pre-voting sentiments whereas exit polls capture post-voting sentiments.

Model Code of Conduct is a set of guidelines that Election Commission (EC) of India issues for candidates and political parties during elections.

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Exit Polls: Role in Electoral System, Analysis, and Regulations

Understanding Exit Polls: Their Significance and Evolution in Electoral Analysis

Exit Poll: Nature and Methodology

Understanding the Limitations in Electoral Predictions

Analyzing the Dynamics of Exit Polls: Insights and Scrutiny

Evolution of Exit Poll Regulations in Indian Electoral System

Exit Polls and Opinion Poll Regulation Across the World

Model Code of Conduct (MCC)

Upholding Electoral Integrity: MCC and Exit Polls in India

Exit Polls FAQs

What is Exit Poll?

When was the Exit Poll First Published in India?

What is the Objective of Publishing Exit Polls?

Which Countries have Restricted Exit Polls?

What is the Difference Between Exit poll and Opinion Poll?

What is the Model Code of Conduct?

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