Answer:

Introduction:

As of 2024, the 2021 Census in India remains incomplete. The Ministry of Home Affairs recently reiterated that census activities were postponed indefinitely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting various governance aspects, including the balance of Lok Sabha seats among Indian states.

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Reasons for the Delay of the 2021 Census

• COVID-19 Pandemic: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted planned census activities amidst lockdowns and unavoidable health and hygiene concerns.
  For instance: The census was initially planned for March 2021 but was postponed indefinitely due to health and safety concerns amidst ongoing pandemic, as confirmed by the Ministry of Home Affairs.
• Administrative and Technological Challenges: The delay in the 2021 census in India was catalysed due to administrative complexities and technological readiness issues, impacting training, data collection, and logistical planning.
  For example: The 2021 Census, the first digital census, needed new infrastructure and training for data collection via mobile apps​.
• Resource Allocation and Budgeting: Budget allocations and resources needed for the census faced delays and reallocations due to urgent pandemic-related expenditures.
  For instance: Funds originally designated for census preparations had to be redirected to procure medical supplies, establish quarantine facilities, and support healthcare infrastructure to address the public health crisis effectively. 
• Political and Bureaucratic Hurdles: Political debates and bureaucratic delays in finalizing census protocols, along with logistical challenges, hindered progress.
  For example: Continuous discussions on inclusion/exclusion of caste-based data further complicated the census planning, delaying its initiation.
• Boundary Disputes and Changes: Frequent changes in administrative boundaries and disputes between states have created additional hurdles.
  For example: The Assam–Mizoram border dispute escalation in July 2021 resulted in several fatalities and injuries, severely disrupting census data collection and enumeration processes in the affected areas.

Potential Impact on Lok Sabha Seats

• Delayed Delimitation: The postponement of the census delays the delimitation process, which is crucial for redrawing Lok Sabha constituencies based on the latest population data.
  For example: The current composition of Lok Sabha is based on the 1971 Census, and further delay continues the use of outdated data, affecting fair representation.
• Imbalanced Representation: States with faster population growth may continue to be underrepresented, while states with slower growth may retain disproportionate representation.
  For example: Northern states like Uttar Pradesh may gain more seats at the expense of southern states, which have slower population growth rates.
• Policy and Planning Challenges: Accurate population data is essential for effective policy formulation and implementation of development programs.
  For example: Delayed census data affects the distribution of funds and resources, impacting programs like the National Food Security Act, which relies on up-to-date population figures.
• Increased Socio-Political Tensions: Potential increase in regional disparities and tensions, particularly between northern and southern states, regarding resource allocation and political power.
  For example: Southern states express concerns over losing political influence due to the reapportionment based on outdated population data.
• Obsolete Policy Frameworks: Policies based on outdated data may not address current demographic realities, leading to inefficiencies.
  For example: Health and education policies might fail to cater to the actual needs of the population, impacting service delivery and planning.

Conclusion:

The delay in the 2021 Census significantly impacts India’s political and administrative framework, especially the balance of Lok Sabha seats. Expediting the census process post-pandemic is therefore crucial for fair representation in Parliament and effective governance. Future measures should include leveraging technology and having contingency plans for unforeseen disruptions.