Answer:

Introduction

Cyclonic activity refers to the formation and movement of cyclones, large scale rotating weather systems characterized by low pressure centres. The Arabian Sea, predominantly experiencing cyclonic activity during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, poses substantial risks for coastal communities and marine activities. Example- Cyclone Biparjoy in Gujarat.

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Various factors contributing the burgeoning frequency of cyclonic activity in the Arabian Sea region Meteorological Dynamics:

• Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): The Arabian Sea’s temperature has been steadily rising due Cyclone Kyarr in 2019 intensified rapidly due to anomalously high SSTs.
• Wind Shear: Lower levels of wind shear are conducive to cyclone formation. Changes in wind patterns over the Arabian Sea have led to decreased wind shear, providing a more stable environment for cyclones to form and intensify. Cyclone Tauktae in 2021 is a prime example.
• Atmospheric Humidity: High levels of moisture in the atmosphere are crucial for the formation and sustenance of cyclones. Warming SSTs have increased the atmospheric humidity over the Arabian Sea, enhancing cyclonic activity.
• Tropical Convergence Zones: Convergence zones, where trade winds meet and rise due to the combined effect of heating and Earth’s rotation, also influence cyclone formation. Shifting positions of ITCZ have been linked to increased cyclonic activity in the Arabian Sea.
• Climatic Drivers: to climate change, making conditions more favourable for cyclonic activity. For instance,
• Global Warming: Human-induced global warming has been raising the SSTs, which, as mentioned above, provides more energy for cyclone formation and intensification. Higher SSTs were a contributing factor in the unprecedented intensification of Cyclone Gonu in 2007. Example– Over the full period of the records, global mean SST has increased by close to 0.9°C
• El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO): This refers to the periodic changes in sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure across the Pacific Ocean. During El Nino years, the warming of the Pacific can suppress the formation of cyclones in the Arabian Sea.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): The IOD is a phenomenon where the western Indian Ocean alternates between warmer and cooler temperatures than the eastern part. A positive IOD (warmer west) can fuel the formation of cyclones in the Arabian Sea.
• Climate Change: Changes in monsoon patterns, increased humidity, and rising SSTs due to climate change have been directly linked to increased cyclonic activity in the Arabian Sea.

Implications of cyclonic activity in the Arabian Sea region on coastal ecosystems and human populations:

Implications on Coastal Ecosystems:

• Habitat Disruption: They can destroy coral reefs, while heavy rainfall can increase sedimentation and decrease water clarity, impacting photosynthetic organisms like seagrass and phytoplankton. Eg: Cyclone Phet in 2010 severely damaged coral reefs along Oman’s coast.
  
• Species Displacement: The altered environmental conditions following a cyclone can lead to displacement of species, affecting local biodiversity. Post Cyclone Gonu, significant shifts in fish species composition were observed in the Arabian Sea due to habitat changes.
• Mangrove Damage: Mangroves serve as a natural barrier against cyclones, but they can be severely damaged or uprooted during a strong cyclone, leading to loss of biodiversity. The 1999 Cyclone 2A caused extensive damage to Pakistan’s mangrove forests.
• Ecosystem Productivity: Cyclones can affect primary productivity by influencing nutrient cycles driving upwelling, bringing nutrient-rich deeper waters to the surface and boosting productivity. However, excessive nutrients can also lead to harmful algal blooms.
• Coastal Erosion: The high-energy waves and storm surges associated with cyclones can accelerate coastal erosion, leading to habitat loss for many species. For example, several beaches along India’s west coast faced severe erosion due to Cyclone Tauktae in 2021.

Implications on Human Populations:

• Loss of Life and Property: The most immediate impact of cyclones is the loss of human life and destruction of infrastructure. Cyclone Gonu, the strongest cyclone recorded in the Arabian Sea, resulted in over 50 deaths and caused billions of dollars in damages across Oman and Iran.
• Economic Impact: Cyclones can severely impact the economy, damaging infrastructure and disrupting industries like fishing and tourism. The aftermath of Cyclone Mekunu in 2018 saw a significant drop in tourism in affected areas, impacting local economies.
• Health Risks: Cyclones can lead to waterborne and vector-borne diseases due to flooding and waterlogging. The aftermath of Cyclone Nisarga in 2020 saw an increase in cases of malaria and dengue in affected regions.
• Food Security: Cyclones can affect agriculture by damaging crops and soil through flooding and deposition of salt by storm surges. Post Cyclone Chapala in 2015, many agricultural fields in Yemen were rendered unusable due to salt deposition.
• Displacement: Severe cyclones can lead to short-term or even permanent displacement of people. Cyclone Kyarr in 2019 caused the displacement of thousands of people in Somalia, exacerbating the existing refugee crisis.

Suitable way ahead in this regard

• Climate Action: India, being one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters, needs to intensify its efforts to mitigate climate change. Transitioning to renewable energy sources, promoting electric vehicles, and enhancing energy efficiency are some ways forward.
• Strengthening Early Warning Systems: India’s meteorological department has made significant progress in cyclone prediction, as demonstrated during Cyclone Amphan. But
• there’s room for improvement, especially in terms of localized forecasting and real-time updates.
• Building Resilient Infrastructure: India needs to construct infrastructure capable of withstanding cyclonic storms, particularly in vulnerable coastal regions. The construction of cyclone shelters in Odisha, which saved countless lives during Cyclone Fani, is a good example.
• Disaster Management Training: Community-level disaster preparedness can significantly reduce cyclone impacts. The successful evacuation during Cyclone Phailin in Odisha was largely due to community-level training and preparedness.
• Ecosystem Restoration and Protection: Protecting and restoring natural buffers like mangroves can provide significant protection against cyclones. Sundarbans, the world’s largest mangrove forest, has historically shielded the West Bengal coast from severe cyclone impacts.
• Diversifying Livelihoods: To reduce economic impacts, coastal communities should diversify their income sources beyond just fishing and tourism. Promoting alternative livelihood options, such as aquaculture or seaweed farming, can make them more resilient.
  
• Climate-Resilient Agriculture: Farmers in coastal regions should be encouraged to adopt climate-resilient crops and farming practices. Saline-tolerant rice varieties developed by the Kerala Agricultural University could be adopted in cyclone-prone areas.
• International Cooperation: India can play a leading role in fostering regional cooperation for cyclone forecasting and disaster response in the Indian Ocean region. The Indian Ocean Rim Association could serve as an effective platform for such collaborations.

Conclusion

While increasing cyclonic activity in the Arabian Sea poses significant challenges, India’s proactive and strategic approaches to climate action, disaster preparedness, and coastal resilience offer hope. With continued efforts and international cooperation, a future with resilient coastal communities and ecosystems is achievable.