Navigating Troubled Waters: The Philippines, China, and the South China Sea

• The Philippines and China had conflicting claims over the Scarborough Shoal, located approximately 100 miles from the Philippines and 500 miles from China. 
  • Both countries depended on fishing in the South China Sea, including the Scarborough Shoal, for economic development. 
  • A standoff in 2012 resulted in China gaining de facto control over the region.
  • In 2013, the Philippines brought the dispute with China to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), asserting that China’s claims violated its sovereignty under UNCLOS. 
• Arbitration Ruling (2016): In 2016, an international body, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, ruled in favour of the Philippines’ claims over the Scarborough Shoal under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
• • PCA ruled that China’s claims over 90% of the South China Sea were illegitimate. 
  • It also concluded that China was infringing on the Philippines’ sovereign waters by including the Scarborough Shoal within its nine-dash line, which extended into the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
  • However, China rejected the PCA ruling, asserting that it has historical rights to the South China Sea and prefers bilateral negotiations with other parties involved. 

A Closer Look at the Second Thomas Shoal Dispute

• South China Sea: The South China Sea is a highly contested region, with multiple countries, including the Philippines and China, asserting territorial claims over various islands and shoals.
  • One of the focal points of tension is the Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines and China have competing claims.

Escalating Tensions: Chinese Vessels Collide with Philippine Ships

• The recent incidents involved a Chinese coast guard ship and an accompanying vessel ramming a Filipino coast guard ship and a boat carrying military supplies near the Second Thomas Shoal.
• These actions resulted in damage to the vessels.

Philippine’s Response:

• Accusations of Dangerous Maneuvering: Philippine officials accused the Chinese vessels of dangerous manoeuvres, including blocking, harassing, and obstructing Philippine vessels engaged in legitimate activities within its exclusive economic zone.
• International Law and UN Charter:The Philippines emphasized that the actions of the Chinese ships violated international rules, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and the UN Charter.

China’s Stance:

• Claims of Trespassing: China claimed that the Philippine vessels trespassed into what it considered Chinese waters without authorization, despite repeated warnings.
• Disputed Sovereignty: Chinese authorities asserted “indisputable sovereignty” over the Second Thomas Shoal, indicating their refusal to recognize the Philippines’ claims.

Potential Consequences: South China Sea tensions escalate, US involvement

• Involvement of the United States: The Philippines’ alliance with the United States raises concerns that a major clash in the South China Sea could trigger U.S. involvement, as the U.S. has pledged to defend the Philippines in case of attacks on its forces or assets.
• Escalation Risks: Continued aggressive actions by China and the Philippines’ determination to defend its territory raise the risk of further escalation, potentially leading to a larger crisis in the region.
• Current Leadership’s Stance: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has vowed to defend the Philippines’ maritime territory and the rights of Filipino fishermen against Chinese aggression.

Exploring the South China Sea: Geography and Significance

• Location: The South China Sea is a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean.

• • Marginal Sea: A marginal sea is a type of sea that is partially enclosed by land and connected to a larger ocean or sea.
  • The South China Sea is connected by Taiwan Strait with the East China Sea and by Luzon Strait with the Philippine Sea.
• Bordering states & territories: the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of China (Taiwan), the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam.
• The Gulf of Thailand and the Gulf of Tonkin are also part of the South China Sea.

The Strategic Importance and Resources of the South China Sea

• Strategic Location: It is strategically located at the crossroads of major maritime trade routes, connecting the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean. It serves as a crucial transit point for international shipping, and global trade.
  • According to the United Nations Conference on Trade And Development (UNCTAD) one-third of the global shipping passes through it, carrying trillions of trade which makes it a significant geopolitical water body.
• Natural Resources: The sea is believed to have abundant natural resources, including fisheries and potential oil and gas reserves.
  • More than half of the world’s fishing vessels are in the South China Sea, and millions of people depend on these waters for their food and livelihoods.

The South China Sea Conflict: A Historical Perspective and UNCLOS Implications

• Mid 20th Century: The evolution of the South China Sea conflict can be traced back to the mid-20th century when China laid its claim to the region. 
• 11 Dash Line: In 1947, China marked its territorial claims with a U-shaped line consisting of eleven dashes, covering a significant portion of the South China Sea.  
• Discovery of Key Resources: Over time, the discovery of oil and natural gas reserves in the region heightened territorial disputes among claimant countries.
• Role of UNCLOS: The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) came into force in 1994, providing a legal framework for balancing the interests of coastal states and seafaring nations. 
  • While most coastal countries in the South China Sea signed and ratified UNCLOS, each country interpreted the convention to legitimize their own claims, leading to ongoing tensions.

Complex Claims in the South China Sea: Perspectives of China and Other Claimant Nations

• China: China claims nearly the entire South China Sea based on its historical “nine-dash line” claim, which encompasses the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, Scarborough Shoal, and other features within the region.
• Taiwan: Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), asserts the same territorial claims as China over the South China Sea, including the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal.
• Vietnam: Vietnam claims sovereignty over the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. It also contests China’s claims and activities in the disputed waters.
• Philippines: The Philippines asserts its claims over the Spratly Islands, including Scarborough Shoal, which is located within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). 
• Malaysia: Malaysia claims several features in the Spratly Islands, including the Layang-Layang Reef, Swallow Reef, and the Investigator Shoal.
• Brunei: Brunei claims a portion of the Spratly Islands, but its claim is relatively small compared to other claimant countries.

Diplomatic Strains in the South China Sea: ASEAN’s Challenges and US Involvement

• ASEAN and South China Sea:
  • One of the core principles of ASEAN is the peaceful resolution of regional disputes. 
  • However, over time, ASEAN’s stance and actions regarding the South China Sea disputes have diminished its reputation and standing on the international stage. 
  • The failure to effectively address and resolve the ongoing conflicts in the South China Sea raises concerns about ASEAN’s credibility as a capable regional organisation. 
• The US and the South China Sea:
  • The U.S. has no claim in the South China Sea, but has been highly critical of China’s assertiveness and insisted on free navigation of commercial vessels in the South China Sea is vital for regional and international trade.
  • It conducted joint military patrols with the Philippines and Japan, Australia, and Indonesia.
  • The US also increased the financial support for enhancing the military capabilities of ASEAN and East Asian countries as well as strengthened bilateral defence collaboration with these countries.

India’s Strategic Outlook and Involvement in the South China Sea Dispute

• India has always maintained that it is not a party to the SCS dispute and its presence in the SCS is not to contain China but to secure its own economic interests.
• However, India has also been critical of China’s increasingly assertive behavior in the SCS, and has called for a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Significance of SCS for India:
  • 55% of India’s trade with the Indo-Pacific region passes through the waters of SCS.
  • The SCS is a strategic waterway that connects the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.
  • Growing importance for the Indo-Pacific Region in geopolitics.
• Measures by India:
  • As a key element of the Act East Policy, India has started internationalizing disputes in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • India is part of Quad initiative (India, US, Japan, Australia), an important forum for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • India has also deployed its navy with Vietnam in the South China Sea for protection of sea lanes of communication (SLOC).
  • India is using soft power diplomacy to make a strong bond with the Southeast Asian region.

Persistent Challenges in Resolving the South China Sea Dispute

• Undefined geographic scope: There is disagreement among the claimant countries and other stakeholders over the exact geographic boundaries and scope of the South China Sea, which further complicates the dispute.
• Disagreement over dispute settlement mechanisms: There is a lack of consensus on how to settle disputes in the South China Sea. Different countries have varying preferences regarding the mechanisms and forums for resolving conflicts.
• Legal status of the Code of Conduct (COC): Negotiations for a Code of Conduct between ASEAN and China are ongoing, but the legal status and enforceability of the COC remain undefined.
• Historical complexities: The diverse histories and competing territorial claims of distant, largely uninhabited archipelagos in the South China Sea contribute to the complexity and multifaceted nature of the dispute.

Charting a Path Forward: Diplomatic Solutions and Legal Frameworks

Diplomacy and Engagement:

• Multilateral Negotiations: Encourage all parties involved, including China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei, to engage in peaceful, open, and multilateral negotiations to find mutually acceptable solutions and fostering understanding among the nations.
• Role of ASEAN: In 2002, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China signed the Declaration on the Code of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in an attempt to manage and resolve disputes. 
• Regular Dialogues: These dialogues can help in addressing immediate concerns and preventing misunderstandings from escalating into conflicts.

Code of Conduct (COC):

• Robust COC: 
  • Actively promote the finalization and adherence to a robust and legally binding Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. 
  • This COC should outline specific guidelines for behavior in the region, including dispute resolution mechanisms, maritime security protocols, and environmental protections.

Conflict Prevention and Management:

• Confidence-Building Measures: Implement confidence-building measures such as establishing hotlines between military and government officials to facilitate immediate communication in case of maritime incidents. 
• Maritime Cooperation: Encourage joint efforts in areas such as marine scientific research, environmental protection, and fisheries management to foster cooperation and mutual benefit.

International Arbitration and Legal Mechanisms:

• Utilize Legal Avenues: Encourage nations involved to utilize international arbitration and legal mechanisms to address specific disputes. Uphold and respect international rulings, such as the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling in the Philippines vs. China case, as a basis for resolving disputes peacefully.

Role of Third-Party Mediation and Regional Cooperation in Resolving the South China Sea Dispute

• Neutral Mediators: Involve neutral third-party mediators such as the United Nations, ASEAN, or other respected international bodies. These mediators can facilitate negotiations, offer expert advice, and help maintain impartiality during discussions.
• Regional Involvement: Encourage active involvement and support from regional organizations like ASEAN, which can play a vital role in mediating and facilitating dialogue among the disputing parties.

Promotion of Common Interests:

• Shared Prosperity: Emphasize the shared economic and environmental interests of the countries involved in the South China Sea. Encourage joint initiatives for sustainable development, disaster management, and protection of marine resources, highlighting the benefits of cooperation.
• Cultural Exchanges: Promote people-to-people exchanges, cultural understanding, and academic collaboration among nations to foster mutual respect and reduce prejudices.

Regular Review and Adaptation:

• Continuous Assessment: Establish a mechanism for regular review and assessment of the implemented measures. This allows for adjustments and adaptations based on changing circumstances, ensuring that the strategies remain effective over time.