{"id":126441,"date":"2024-08-16T19:51:44","date_gmt":"2024-08-16T14:21:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/?post_type=current-affairs&#038;p=126441"},"modified":"2024-08-19T12:59:42","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T07:29:42","slug":"new-solar-cycle-prediction-method","status":"publish","type":"current-affairs","link":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/current-affairs\/new-solar-cycle-prediction-method","title":{"rendered":"New Solar Cycle Prediction Method"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Astronomers from the<\/span><b> Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA) <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">have found a <\/span><b>new method to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Their research also aids in space weather forecasting.<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><b>Solar Cycle<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>About: The solar cycle is an approximately 11-year period marked by variations in the Sun&#8217;s activity, including changes in sunspot numbers, solar radiation, and ejections of solar material.\u00a0<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This cycle alternates between <\/span><b>phases of minimum and maximum activity<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, with synchronised fluctuations in sunspots, solar flares, and coronal loops.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"vc_button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pw.live\/batches\/upsc?utm_source=seo+upsc+batch&#038;utm_medium=seo+upsc&#038;utm_campaign=seo&#038;utm_id=upsc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Enroll now for UPSC Online Course<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 99.9%;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th style=\"width: 100%; border-style: solid; border-color: #000000; background-color: rgba(184, 165, 217, 0.53); text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;\">\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 16pt; color: #000000;\"><b>Understanding Space Weather<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>About: Space weather <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is a branch of space physics that is <\/span><b>concerned with the varying conditions within the Solar System and its heliosphere.<\/b><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; color: #000000;\">Space weather has a significant effect on modern civilization, influencing technology and infrastructure on Earth and in space.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>Key Components of Space Weather:<\/b><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>Solar Wind: Streams of charged particles<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> emitted by the Sun.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs): <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Large bursts of solar wind and magnetic fields rising above the solar corona or being released into space.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>Solar Flares:\u00a0 <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Solar flares are a <\/span><b>sudden explosion of energy caused by tangling, crossing or reorganising of magnetic field lines near sunspots.<\/b><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>Impact on Earth:<\/b><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>Magnetosphere Compression:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Space weather events can compress Earth\u2019s magnetosphere.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>Geomagnetic Storms: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These storms can disrupt communication and power systems.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>Damage to Spacecraft: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Spacecraft electronics can be harmed by intense solar activity.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>Astronaut Safety: Space weather poses risks to astronauts&#8217; health and safety.<\/b><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Magnetic Field Reversal: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Approximately every 11 years, the <\/span><b>Sun&#8217;s magnetic field undergoes a complete flip<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, with the north and south poles switching places.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Impact on Solar Activity: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The solar cycle <\/span><b>influences surface activity on the Sun<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, including the formation of sunspots, which are driven by the Sun&#8217;s magnetic fields.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Tracking the Cycle:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><b>solar cycle is monitored by counting sunspots.<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Sunspots\u00a0 are dark regions on the Sun\u2019s photosphere.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (The <\/span><b>photosphere is the visible surface layer of the Sun from which light and heat are emitted).<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They appear darker because they are cooler than the surrounding areas of the Sun\u2019s surface.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It begins with a <\/span><b>solar minimum, characterised by few sunspots,<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and progresses to a <\/span><b>solar maximum, when sunspot numbers reach their peak.<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><b>Key Findings<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Data and Research: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The method is based on <\/span><b>100 years of solar data<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from the <\/span><b>Kodaikanal Solar Observatory.<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It involves <\/span><b>studying solar chromospheric images<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> at 393.3 nm wavelength of Ca-K ion.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Present Methods to predict the next Solar Cycle:\u00a0<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Traditional methods include <\/span><b>theoretical calculations, dynamo models, extrapolations, and precursor methods.<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><b>The precursor method uses current solar activity measures <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">to predict the next solar cycle&#8217;s strength.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>New Correlation Found:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Correlation Discovery:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> IIA researchers discovered a <\/span><b>correlation between the width of super granular cells on the solar surface during solar minima and the number of sunspots in the subsequent solar maximum.<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In other words,<\/span><b> measuring the width of supergranular cells can help predict how many sunspots will be present in the upcoming solar maximum.<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Forecasting Simplified:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> This method simplifies space weather forecasting by <\/span><b>linking supragranular lane widths to sunspot cycle amplitudes.<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"vc_button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/store.pw.live\/govt-entrance-exams\/upsc-books?utm_source=SEO&#038;utm_medium=PW+Live&#038;utm_campaign=UPSC+CSE+Books\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check Out UPSC CSE Books From PW Store<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 100.033%;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th style=\"width: 100%; border-style: solid; border-color: #000000; background-color: rgba(184, 165, 217, 0.53); text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;\">\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 18pt; color: #000000;\"><b>Solar Cycle 25<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>About: Solar Cycle 25 is the current solar cycle.<\/b><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>It is the 25th solar cycle since sunspot observations began in 1755.\u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><b>new Solar Cycle started in December 2019<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> with a minimum sunspot number of 1.8.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This cycle is expected to <\/span><b>continue until around 2030.<\/b><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 99.9279%;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 137.81%; 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