{"id":141703,"date":"2024-11-07T21:06:50","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T15:36:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/?post_type=editorial-analysis&#038;p=141703"},"modified":"2025-03-03T11:41:16","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T06:11:16","slug":"what-trump-means-for-india","status":"publish","type":"editorial-analysis","link":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/editorial-analysis\/what-trump-means-for-india","title":{"rendered":"What Donald Trump 2.0 means for India and South Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Donald Trump\u2019s re-election is expected to reinforce the momentum of strong India-US relations, maintaining continuity while also introducing evolving dynamics that India must navigate carefully to sustain beneficial bilateral ties.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><b>Reasons for Optimism in India-US Relations<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Trade and Technology Cooperation:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations in 2019-2020, stalled under Biden, will likely be revived.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump and the Republican Party have generally prioritised selling U.S. oil and natural gas over aggressive climate action and renewable energy policies. Thus, he is also expected to encourage India to buy U.S. oil and LNG, as seen in the 2019 Driftwood LNG deal, which was shelved later\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Lack of Pressure on Internal Issues:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unlike the Biden administration, Trump\u2019s policies will <\/span><b>likely avoid pushing India on democratic norms, minority rights, press freedoms, and human rights issues.<\/b><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India will likely face fewer concerns over the Foreign (Contribution) Regulation Act, which restricts foreign funding for NGOs, or criticism over treatment of climate and human rights organisations.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Khalistani Groups and Canada Relations:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India will likely see less pressure from the U.S. on its issues with Khalistani groups.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given his frosty relations with Trump, it\u2019s unlikely that Trump would involve the U.S. in India\u2019s current diplomatic tensions with Canada, particularly over the Nijjar case.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>U.S. Support for India in the LAC Conflict:\u00a0<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump supported India during the LAC conflict in a uniquely proactive manner, sharing U.S. intelligence, leasing drones, and supplying winter gear\u2014an approach distinct from previous U.S. administrations.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This demonstrates a willingness to go beyond traditional diplomatic gestures, prioritising tangible assistance in times of need.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"vc_button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pw.live\/batches\/upsc?utm_source=seo+upsc+batch&#038;utm_medium=seo+upsc&#038;utm_campaign=seo&#038;utm_id=upsc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Enroll now for UPSC Online Course<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><b>Potential Trouble Areas in Donald Trump\u2019s Second Term<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Trade Tariffs and GSP Status<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump\u2019s push for cutting trade tariffs could reignite trade disputes, as seen during his first term with the China tariff war.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India faced counter-tariffs, the loss of Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) status, and complaints at the WTO.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Trump resumes similar trade policies, India\u2019s exports may face fresh challenges.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Trump\u2019s Public Comments on Diplomacy<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump\u2019s tendency to disclose and sometimes distort private conversations with foreign leaders has caused diplomatic discomfort.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notably, <\/span><b>his claims about India asking him to mediate on Kashmir<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> were denied, and his<\/span><b> mocking of PM Modi over trade issues like Harley Davidson tariffs,<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> along with <\/span><b>pressuring India on hydroxychloroquine exports<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, led to tensions.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Tensions with Iran<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump\u2019s confrontational stance on Iran during his first term pressured India to cut oil imports from Iran.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While future policies on Iran may shift, India could still face similar pressures, particularly if Trump seeks to re-engage with Russia, affecting its oil and energy strategies.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Russia and Moscow Relations<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India is likely to face minimal pressure from Trump regarding its relationship with Russia.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given Trump\u2019s interest in engaging with President Vladimir Putin, India may benefit from a more flexible approach, especially concerning defence deals and strategic ties with Russia.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><b>Implications for India\u2019s Neighbours<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Impact on Pakistan:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pakistan may experience loss of U.S. support under Trump, especially for loans from the IMF and World Bank.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trump\u2019s previous decision to cancel U.S. aid to Pakistan in his first term could be repeated.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Bangladesh and the Region:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bangladesh could face scrutiny under Trump, especially regarding the protection of Hindu minorities, after Trump&#8217;s social media posts criticising Dhaka\u2019s treatment of minorities.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South Asian nations like Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives that were courted by the Biden administration might be concerned about lack of attention from Trump\u2019s administration.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>India&#8217;s Regional Relations:<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">India may seek Trump\u2019s intervention in ending Israel\u2019s war in Gaza and Lebanon and reviving talks with Gulf countries to aid the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, which has stalled.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"vc_button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/store.pw.live\/govt-entrance-exams\/upsc-books\/upsc-modules?utm_source=SEO&#038;utm_medium=PW+Live&#038;utm_campaign=UPSC+Modules\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check Out UPSC Modules From PW Store<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><b>Conclusion<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While India stands to gain strategically from Trump 2.0 , it should remain cautious of challenges as well.Proactive engagement and measured diplomacy will be essential to maximise benefits and manage any disruptions effectively.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"vc_table_green\"><\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 100.043%;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 130.811%; text-align: center; border-style: solid; border-color: #000000;\" colspan=\"2\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><b>Must Read<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 50.5357%; text-align: center; border-style: 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Store<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump\u2019s re-election is expected to reinforce the momentum of strong India-U.S. relations, maintaining continuity while also introducing evolving dynamics that India must navigate carefully to sustain beneficial bilateral ties.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":141631,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"tags":[],"paper-wise":[2084],"subject":[2102],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/editorial-analysis\/141703"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/editorial-analysis"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/editorial-analysis"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=141703"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/editorial-analysis\/141703\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":141787,"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/editorial-analysis\/141703\/revisions\/141787"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/141631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=141703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=141703"},{"taxonomy":"paper-wise","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/paper-wise?post=141703"},{"taxonomy":"subject","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pwonlyias.com\/stage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/subject?post=141703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}