Context:

• This article is based on the news “How India-Israel ties progressed: from Palestine-leaning to a strategic embrace of the Jewish nation” which was published in the Indian Express. Israel declared a state of war after Palestinian terrorist militant organization Hamas launched an attack on it.

Tensions Surge in the Israel Palestine Conflict

• The attack has raised concerns over Israel’s defence system, with many questioning the intelligence failure. Some observers have referred to the latest escalation as the beginning of the “Third Intifada”. 

What is an Intifada?

• It is an Arabic word that means to ‘shake off’. It came into popular usage in December 1987, with Palestinians using it to describe their uprising against the Israeli presence in the West Bank and Gaza.
• The First Intifada lasted from 1987 to 1993, and the Second Intifada from 2000-2005.

What is the Iron Dome?

• The Iron Dome is a short-range, ground-to-air air defense system developed by Israel to protect against rockets, artillery, mortars (C-RAM), aircraft, helicopters, and unmanned aerial vehicles. 

Sinai Peninsula

• The Sinai Peninsula, which is part of Egypt, serves as a land bridge between the Middle Eastern portion of Asia and North Africa. 
• It is bordered to the north by the Mediterranean Sea, and to the east by Israel and the Gaza Strip, to the southwest by the Gulf of Suez, and South by the Red Sea.

A Timeline Israel Palestine Conflict

• 1949: Israel signs truces with Arab countries, and the Gaza Strip was under Egypt’s control.
• 1956: Israel invades the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip in response to Egypt’s nationalization of the Suez Canal.
• 1957: Israel withdrew from Egyptian land, except from the Gaza Strip and the area of the Gulf of Aqaba, arguing that the Gaza Strip never belonged to Egypt.
• 1967: During the Six-Day War, Israel gains control of the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula.
• 1987: Palestine initiate the first intifada against Israel.
• 1993: Arafat signs the Oslo Accords with Israel, committing to negotiating a two-state solution; Hamas launches suicide bombings in Israel.
• 2021: Israeli police raid Al-Aqsa Mosque, leading to an 11-day war between Israel and Hamas; casualties on both sides.
• 2023: Recent attacks by Hamas on Israel

Why did Hamas launch a surprise attack on Israel?

• Deteriorating Relations: Palestine-Israeli relations have been steadily deteriorating in recent years, marked by frequent Israeli military raids in the occupied West Bank.
  • In April, Israeli police raided Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque compound (Islam’s third holiest place of worship). 
• Exploiting Public Anger: Hamas sought to capitalize on the public anger against the occupation and emerge as the leading force in the Palestinian cause. Hamas aimed to position itself as the primary advocate for Palestinian rights.
• Israeli Domestic Divisions: Israel is experiencing internal divisions, with a right-wing government pursuing an ambitious legislative agenda and facing protests against attempts to curtail the powers of the judiciary. 
• Geopolitical Considerations: The timing of the Hamas attack coincided with Israel and Saudi Arabia being in advanced talks for normalization. 
  • A potential normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, supported by the United States, would reshape regional dynamics and potentially weaken Hamas. 

India’s Stand over the Israel Palestine Conflict

• India has expressed solidarity with the Palestinian cause and supported the establishment of a sovereign Palestine state.
• In 1975, India became the first non-Arab country to recognise the PLO as the sole representative of the Palestinian people.
• In 1988, when the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) declared an independent state of Palestine with its capital in East Jerusalem, India granted recognition immediately.

Also read: India-Israel Bilateral Relations

What is the Conflict between Israel and Palestine?

• Jerusalem has been at the center of the Israel Palestine conflic: 
  • UN Partition Plan (1947): Original UN plan proposed Jerusalem as an international city.
  • First Arab-Israeli War (1948): Israelis captured the western half of Jerusalem.
    • Jordan took the eastern part, including the Old City and Haram al-Sharif.
    • Six-Day War (1967): Israel defeated a coalition of Arab states, including Jordan.
    • Jordan lost control of the al-Aqsa Mosque.
    • Israel captured and annexed East Jerusalem.
  • Post-Six-Day War: Israel considers the entire city as its “unified, eternal capital.”
    • Palestine insist on East Jerusalem as the capital of any future Palestinian state.

Impact of Israel Palestine conflict

• Oil Prices: Escalation in the Middle East can lead to a surge in crude oil prices, affecting global economies, including India.
• Inflation: Rising oil prices can trigger high imported inflation in major economies like the US, India, and China, impacting production costs and energy expenses.
• Global Markets: Equity markets may experience volatility, with investors shifting toward safe-haven assets like gold, and foreign institutional investors selling in response to higher bond yields and oil prices.
• Global Geopolitics: The conflict’s geopolitical implications may influence regional dynamics, including India’s foreign policy and relations with key players in the Middle East.
• On India:
  • Economic Impact: Disruptions in trade with Israel may lead to price increases for goods, affecting India’s economy.
    • Israel is the third-largest Asian trade partner of India and 10th overall.
    • India’s exports to Israel account for 1.8% of India’s total merchandise exports led by petroleum products. 
    • Israel buys around $5.5 – 6 billion of refined petroleum products from India. In FY23, India’s total exports to Israel stood at $8.4 billion
  • Defense Equipment: India relies on Israel for defense equipment; any interruptions could impact its defense capabilities.

Also read: India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) Project

Way Forward

• Implementation of Oslo Accords (1993): Oslo Accord is an ongoing American-mediated effort to broker a peace treaty between Israel and Palestine. 
• Two-State Solution:The two-state solution has for decades been the primary focus of efforts to achieve peace in the Israel Palestine conflict
  • The two-state solution aims to establish an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, ensuring two states for two peoples.

Conclusion

The ongoing Israel Palestine conflict has escalated geopolitical  tensions. Achieving a peaceful resolution in the Israel Palestine issue requires collective efforts from the international community. The current reluctance of the Israeli government and other stakeholders exacerbates the problem. A balanced approach is crucial, not only for fostering favorable relations with Arab countries but also for maintaining a constructive engagement with Israel.