The melting of Arctic ice is opening up the Northern Sea Route (NSR) , providing new opportunities in the region along with the threat to the environment.

Climate Impact and Changing Arctic Sea

• Breaching of Climate Thresholds: In 2024, global temperatures temporarily exceeded the 1.5°C limit above pre-industrial levels, a possible long-term breach of the Paris Agreement goals.
• Accelerated Ice Loss: Arctic sea ice is shrinking at a rate of 12.2% per decade (September data) compared to 1981–2010 averages as per NASA, signaling an urgent environmental transformation.
• Climate Feedback on India: Arctic ice melt has cascading effects on India’s climate patterns, particularly the monsoon, with implications for agriculture and food security.
• Opening of NSR : It is seen as a critical shortcut for shipping between Europe and Asia, potentially reshaping global trade flows.
  • It will allow faster cargo movement and reduce freight costs, posing strategic and economic advantages.

India’s Potential in the Arctic Region

• Global Trade Realignments: Rising geopolitical tensions, especially with the U.S.-China friction is prompting nations to diversify trade routes.
  • The Arctic has emerged as a strategic alternative.

• India’s Active Engagement: India has long-standing involvement with the Arctic, dating back to the Svalbard Treaty of 1920, and maintains a research base called Himadri, in the Arctic region.
• Strategic Arctic Vision: India’s 2022 Arctic Policy aims to balance scientific research, climate awareness, and economic interests, with renewed focus needed for implementation.
• Maritime Infrastructure Push: The 2025–26 Budget allocated $3 billion to maritime development, including shipbuilding clusters and ice-class vessels suited for Arctic navigation.
• International Partnerships: India is engaging in dialogue with Arctic and non-Arctic states. The Arctic Circle India Forum in May 2025 could catalyze further collaboration and policy alignment.
• Research and Capacity Building: India is investing in Arctic climate modeling and seeks to promote multilateral knowledge exchange and capacity-building initiatives.

Challenges in the Arctic Region

• Ecological Fragility: The Arctic’s delicate environment is extremely vulnerable to disturbances, requiring India to prioritize low-impact operations in any commercial or research ventures.
• Harsh Maritime Conditions: Navigating Arctic waters demands advanced, ice-class ships and significant preparedness due to unpredictable weather and challenging sea routes.
• Strategic Alignment Dilemma: India must carefully navigate its Arctic alliances, balancing ties between Russia and Western powers without being drawn into China’s expanding Arctic ambitions.
• Investment and Influence Gaps: High infrastructure costs and India’s non-claimant status in the region limit both its financial feasibility and diplomatic leverage in Arctic affairs.