Context:

The entire western Himalayas has been witnessing a prolonged dry spell with barely any hope for a revival in the next two weeks.

Kashmir’s Rainfall Deficit: Impact on Groundwater, Horticulture, and Tourism

• There is around 75 percent rainfall deficit in Kashmir in December and January leading to severe dry spells and impact on groundwater, horticulture and tourism.

Kashmir’s Unusual Winter: Challenging the Traditional Chilla Calendar with Absence of Snowfall

• The winter in Kashmir is about 70 days long, beginning from December 22nd. The first forty days are called the Chilla Kalan, the next twenty days are called the Chilla Khurd, and the last ten days are called the Chilla Bachi. These are the times for water recharge through winter snowfall. 
• However, in this season, there is an absence of winter moisture and snowfall with experts predicting no improvement in the next 2 weeks. 

Kashmir’s Dry Spell: Absence of Western Disturbances, Global Warming Impact, and Ecological Concerns

• Absence of Western Disturbance(WD): The absence of WD has led to an absence of snowfalls, as snow falls happen due to the WDs. 

• Relation with El Nino: The frequency of WD generally increases before the onset of the El Nino in an El Nino year. However, this year, global warming seems to have become dominant. 
• Impact of Global Warming: Due to global warming, the frequencies of WDs have reduced as the mid-latitude jet streams causing such circulations are moving north towards the polar region robbing the country of crucial winter precipitations.
• North Atlantic Oscillation: Experts have said a strong positive correlation exists between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter precipitation in the Kashmir region. 
  • Positive NAO leads to more active western disturbances (WDs) that bring the majority of winter precipitation to the Kashmir region
  • There was a negative NAO during December 2023 and a strongly negative NAO is predicted for January 2024, leading to very low snowfall this season.
• Ecological: The forests in Gulmarg are continuously cut down to build hotels. Additionally, garbage and plastic wastes are being dumped in forests, affecting climate and ecological balance.  

Kashmir’s Dry Spell: Impact on Tourism, Winter Sports, Water Resources, and Economic Sectors

• Decline in Tourist arrivals: There has been a 70% decline in tourist arrivals in Gulmarg, where most of the adventure and sports events like skiing are organized in winter amid snowfall.
• Impact on adventure winter sports: The 4th ‘Khelo India Winter Games,’ organized in Gulmarg and scheduled to start in the first week of February, might also be deferred.
• Water Resources: The absence of snow means a scarcity of water sources, as the melting snow usually contributes to the rivers and lakes that the birds depend on.
• Drinking Water: With rivers drying up, drinking water supply through springs and canals has also been affected.
• Hydroelectricity: prolonged dry spell and scanty rainfall in the past few months reduced generation in the hydroelectric power projects across J&K as well. 
• Apple Economy: The absence of snow has hampered the Apple farmers as the layer of snow acts as a protective blanket, insulating the trees from extreme cold. 

Way Forward: Water Management and Sustainable Tourism Practices for the Future

• Adaptation of strategic water management practices: To address the impact on agriculture, there is a need for strategic water management practices, drought-resistant crop varieties, and adaptive agricultural techniques. 
• Balance between the economy and ecology: Efforts should be made to improve the balance between the economy and ecology, by not allowing hotel construction in key ecological areas so that there is sustainable tourism. 

News Source:  Deccan Herald