India is likely to receive ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall, in 2025 as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

• This marks the second consecutive year of ‘above normal’ monsoon (2024 saw 8% more rainfall).

About Above Normal Monsoon

• An above-average monsoon refers to the southwest monsoon (June–September) bringing more rainfall than the long-period average (LPA), which is currently around 87 cm (or 870 mm) across India.

Reasons for the ‘above normal’ Monsoons

• Absence of El Nino: El Nino, which involves warming of the central equatorial Pacific, is typically linked to weaker monsoon rains in India (in 6 out of 10 years).
  • Its absence in 2025 is contributing to the likelihood of surplus rains.

• Below-Normal Eurasian Snow Cover: The Eurasian snow cover or the snow cover areas of northern hemisphere and Eurasia from January-March 2025. This snow cover was below normal. 
  • There is an inverse relationship: less snow usually leads to more monsoon rain.
• Neutral ENSO Conditions with La Nina-like Features: ENSO (El Nino–Southern Oscillation) is currently in a neutral phase. However, atmospheric circulation patterns resemble La Nina, which is typically favorable for the Indian monsoon.
  • ENSO is a climate pattern involving temperature changes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. 
    • It has two phases: El Nino (warmer waters, weaker monsoon) and La Nina (cooler waters, stronger monsoon).
• Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Conditions: Currently, the IOD is neutral, and it is expected to remain so during the monsoon. 
  • IOD refers to see-sawing temperature differences in the Indian Ocean with a ‘positive’ IOD — linked to warmer sea-surface temperatures, generally linked to better rainfall.