The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has ruled out the possibility of El Nino during the 2025 monsoon season.

More on the Forecast

• Climate forecasts suggest “neutral” El Nino conditions, meaning no significant warming of the central Pacific Ocean.
• In 2023, an El Nino year, India saw a 6% monsoon rainfall deficit, while in 2024, neutral conditions led to an 8% surplus.

Potential Weather Trends for 2025

• Above-Normal Summer Temperatures:
  • IMD predicts higher temperatures from April to June.
  • Eastern India may see up to 10 heatwave days.
• Monsoon Uncertainty:
  • Regional factors, such as the Indian Ocean’s conditions, will play a key role.
  • IMD’s April forecast will provide a clearer picture of monsoon rainfall expectations.

El Nino and its Impact

• Definition: El Nino is a warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, disrupting global weather patterns.
• Rainfall Effects: Causes reduced rainfall over South Asia and Indonesia while increasing rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific.
• Wind Changes: Weakens or reverses the easterly trade winds, altering weather systems.
• Temperature Rise: Leads to higher-than-normal temperatures, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves.

ENSO Trends in Recent Years

• El Nino 2023-24: Led to a rainfall deficit in India and higher global temperatures.
• Current Forecasts (2025):
  • The ongoing El Nino is expected to end by April 2025.
  • La Nina could develop during the second half of the monsoon season, influencing rainfall distribution.
  • NOAA predicts over a 70% chance of La Nina forming between September and November 2024.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phases