Context:

• This article is based on a news “Change in the Maldives: On the new leader, Mohamed Muizzu” which was published in the Hindu. Mohamed Muizzu of the People’s National Congress (PNC) party got elected in the recently held presidential elections in the Maldives.

India Maldives Relations

• India Maldives relations have been on an upward trajectory ever since Ibrahim Solih (lost in elections) Government came into power in 2018. 
• Increase Chinese Influence: The victory of Muizzu is widely seen as being to China’s benefit as he was the housing minister and undertook infrastructure projects connected to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• Muizzu continued the “India Out” campaign and questioned bilateral ties in defence and infrastructure investments.

Background: India Maldives Relations

• India and Maldives share ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious and commercial links and the relations have been close, cordial and multi-dimensional. 
• India was among the first to recognize Maldives after its independence in 1965 and to establish diplomatic relations with the country. 
• The importance of India’s strategic role in Maldives is well-recognized, with India being seen as a net security provider.
  • ‘India First’ has been a stated policy of the Government of Maldives.
• Cooperation Areas: Cybersecurity, Capacity Building, Housing, Disaster Management and Infrastructure Development etc.
  • Bilateral engagements flourished beginning in the late 1980s, when India launched ‘Operation Cactus’ to abort a coup in Maldives.

India Maldives Relations: Significance

• Geographical Proximity: Maldives’ proximity to the west coast of India, around 70 nautical miles away from Minicoy island (separated by 8 degree channel), and its strategic location at the hub of commercial sea-lanes running through Indian Ocean influence its significant strategic importance to India. 
• Convergent Security Interests:  Since 1988, defence and security has been a major area of cooperation and a comprehensive Action Plan for Defence was also signed in April 2016 to consolidate defence partnership. 

• • Under the Neighbourhood First policy and Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR), security cooperation between the two countries has grown.In may 2023, India handed over a Fast Patrol vessel and a Landing Craft Assault ship to the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF). Partnership at Security Groupings: India has sought to enhance security cooperation with the Indian Ocean island and littoral nations, through a new ‘minilateral’ group called the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC). 
  • Held at the National Security Advisor (NSA)-level, CSC brings together India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Mauritius, along with Bangladesh and the Seychelles as observers. 
• Economic Assistance: India has been providing economic assistance to support Maldives in times of economic hardship. 
  • In November 2022, India handed over a financial assistance of US$ 100 million in response to a request from Maldives.
• India’s Development-led Approach: India’s outreach has not simply been with the government but aimed at benefiting the people of Maldives. 
  • For example, emphasis on High Impact Community Projects (HICP), financial assistance for the Greater Male Connectivity project. 
  • National College for Police and Law Enforcement (NCPLE) is the single-largest grant project executed by India in the Maldives with grant funding of INR 222.98 Crore.
• Tourism and Connectivity: The Maldivian economy is heavily dependent on its tourism sector, which directly accounts for about a quarter of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Maldives. 
  • In 2023, India with more than 1 lakh tourists arrivals (until June 2023) is the 1st leading source market for Maldives with around 12% market share. 
  • In March 2022, India & Maldives agreed for an open skies arrangement which will further improve connectivity between two countries. 

Also read: India-China Relationship

What are the current challenges in the India Maldives relation?

• India Out Campaign: The campaign accused India of violating Maldivian sovereignty by allowing Indian military presence on the islands. 
  • The government issued a presidential decree banning “Campaigns that Incite Hatred Against Various Countries Under Different Slogans,” as well as specifically mentioning the India-Out protests.
• Increasing Chinese Footprint: China’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region have expanded and Maldives welcomed President Xi Jinping for a visit in 2014. The two signed a Free Trade Agreement and negotiated on establishing a Joint Ocean Observation Centre. 
  • China offered Maldives mega-infrastructure projects and loans, most of them under opaque terms and conditions.
• Criminality, Radicalisation and Extremism:  Four sets of factors influence such behaviour including structural factors such as poverty and poor governance, facilitative factors such as news channels and social network platforms, personal factors such as socio-economic conditions and trigger factors.
  • Presence of high unemployment and poverty with politicisation of news media is increasing the vulnerability of citizens of Maldives to extremism leading many towards terrorist groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda.
• Political Uncertainty: Muizzu focused on the Indian military stationed on an island and alleged it as a threat to the Maldives’ sovereignty. With Muizzu coming to power, India has to go through a hard diplomatic balancing with Maldives government.
• Climate Change: As low-lying island nations, both India and Maldives are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including rising sea levels and marine heatwaves. 

Way Forward

• Timely Project Completion: India must offer lucrative alternatives that focus on development and ensure early completion of its current projects to maintain its footprint in Maldives. 
  • For example, timely completion of India-funded sea bridge under the Greater Male Connectivity Project (GMCP) meeting an ambitious deadline.
• Targeting Youth Employment:  According to the World Bank, that despite its strong economic growth, Maldives has a high rate of youth unemployment.  Future projects that are targeted at youth employability and entrepreneurship will be extremely beneficial to Maldives.
  • India’s HICPs in Maldives must include projects that aim to improve employability and foster entrepreneurship among the youth.
• Tackling China’s Influence: India can expect that Chinese projects under the BRI will likely increase in the coming years. India must offer credible and lucrative alternatives to Chinese projects.
• Tackling Terrorism and Other Issues: India continues to be Maldives’s strongest defence partner for collaboration and the exchange of best practices in the areas of counter-terrorism, preventing and countering violent extremism. 
• Maneuvering Internal Politics: Constructively engaging with the ruling government and adept navigation of internal politics while balancing competing interests will require the ability to align foreign policy goals with domestic priorities. 

Conclusion

India Maldives relations have a long and friendly history, but there are current problems like the “India Out” campaign, more involvement from China, and internal issues such as political uncertainty and climate change that have made their relationship a bit strained. But building trust, fostering understanding, and finding common ground on regional and global issues will contribute to a stronger and more resilient partnership between the two nations.