Context

Recently, ‘India Out Campaign’, an anti-India campaign gained traction in Bangladesh advocating the boycott of Indian products.

What is Behind the ‘India Out Campaign’ in Bangladesh?

• “India Out Campaign” Ploy to Gain Power: Opposition parties alliance (BNP Alliance ) want to create a negative narrative against India to regain power. Their strategy involves diminishing India’s influence in Bangladesh to undermine the Hasina government.
  • This campaign is on the lines of a similar campaign carried out in Maldives by the then-Opposition (and present incumbent) Progressive Party of Maldives.

Factors that Gained Tractions for India Out Campaign in Bangladesh

• Negative Image and Publicity of India’s CAA laws: Negative image of India among Bangladeshis due to India’s CAA laws and sentiments against Bangladeshi migrants in Assam. 
• Bilateral Disagreements: Economic factors, such as the one-sided trade between India and Bangladesh, causing a trade deficit for Bangladesh, and the ongoing Teesta River issue. 
• Chinese Influence: China’s alleged conspiracy behind the campaign to reduce India’s dominance in Bangladesh and increase its own influence in South Asia. 

India’s Role in Bangladesh Affairs

• Recognizing Bangladesh’s Independence: 

• • India was the first country to accept Bangladesh as a sovereign nation. 
    • In the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, India countered Pakistan, China, America, and Europe to free Bangladesh from Pakistan’s oppressed regime.

• India’s Support for Bangladesh’s Sovereignty:  

  • Bangladesh still depends on India for its sovereignty. 
    • India protected Bangladesh’s sovereignty by being the first to congratulate Sheikh Hasina’s government, providing legitimacy to the election. 
    • Apprehension of Bangladesh from Western Nations: Bangladesh’s government feared that Western countries would reject the results. However later in Western countries were forced to accept the election results due to India’s support. 

Perspective of the ‘India Out Campaign” on the India Bangladesh Relations 

• Concerns: 

  • Security Concerns: India cannot overlook the campaign due to Bangladesh’s critical role in its security strategy. 
  • Land Border Connectivity: India relies on the Chicken’s Neck corridor for connectivity to its northeastern region, necessitating strong ties with Bangladesh. 
  • North-Eastern Security Implications: The unrest in Manipur is partially attributed to support extended to Kuki militants from Bangladesh. 
  • Challenge in Countering China: India is grappling with challenges countering China’s significant financial and strategic influence in South Asia. Preventing Bangladesh from becoming another Maldives is imperative for India.

• India’s Stand on the India Out Campaign:

• • Baseless Accusations: Accusations of political interference against India lack merit, especially considering that other countries such as China and Russia also endorsed the election results.
  • Rejection of Claims: The Indian foreign minister dismissed the campaign, asserting that India has no reason to be apprehensive about China’s expanding influence. 
  • Foreign-Driven Propaganda: The “India Out campaign’ was predominantly instigated by foreign entities and predominantly manifested online, lacking substantial participation from Bangladeshis. 

• Impact Of Boycotting India: 

  • Political Sovereignty: Bangladesh still depends on India for its sovereignty.
  • Economic Impact:
    • The textile sector, which contributes 9% to its GDP and employs 70% of Bangladeshi women, depends on Indian cotton exports and garment imports. 
    • Loss of Tariff Concessions: Bangladesh will graduate from the least developed country list by 2026, losing tariff concessions, making it difficult to reduce trade with India. 
    • High Inflation in Bangladesh: India exports essential goods to Bangladesh, and stopping exports could cause 35% inflation in Bangladesh. 
    • Energy Demand by Procurement of Electricity :  Bangladesh is importing nearly 2,000 megawatts of electricity from India, ensuring its energy security.
  • Trade Impact : 
    • Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia and India is the second-biggest trade partner of Bangladesh in Asia. 
    • India is also Bangladesh’s largest export destination in Asia. Bilateral trade grew from USD 9.69 billion in FY 2020-21 to USD 16.15 billion in FY 2021-22. 
    • Therefore Boycotting Indian Products will further deteriorate External Trade Balance.
  • Food Security: Bangladesh is heavily relied on India on main basic Agri commodities like Wheat, Rice, Onion, Garlic & Ginger etc
  • Connectivity Link: Rail-Road line & Waterways etc is in developmental stage with the proactive support from India,ensuring seamless connectivity in the South asian region. 
    • For Ex: Multimodal road-rail link between Agartala in India’s Tripura to Akhaura in Bangladesh, New bridge across the Feni river to facilitate the movement of goods and passengers from Tripura to Bangladesh.

China’s Role and India’s Presence on the the Region & its Implications

• Chinese Campaign Against India: The campaign is seen as part of China’s efforts to reduce India’s influence in South Asia and increase its own. 
  • Inroads by China: China has already made inroads in Sri Lanka and Maldives, putting pressure on India. 
• Benefits of India’s presence:  American report suggests that South Asian countries benefit from India’s presence, as evident in Sri Lanka, where India provided the most help during the China-induced crisis . 
  • South Asian countries can effectively handle China only if India’s presence remains strong in their countries. 

Way Forward

• Secure Bi-partisan Support: 
  • Pursue proactive diplomatic initiatives with Bangladesh to address concerns voiced by both opposition parties and the public. 
  • India should persist in extending support for Bangladesh’s development and sovereignty, all while maintaining awareness of its internal political dynamics. 
  • Prioritize the preservation of the long-term viability of the India-Bangladesh alliance. 
• Confidence and Collaboration building Measures: Fostering confidence and collaboration should be prioritized through diplomatic initiatives and direct engagement with the people.
• Trade and Bilateral Relations: Efforts must be undertaken to strike a balance in trade relations and resolve lingering disputes such as the Teesta River issue.