Context:

• Recently, a report from the United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) outlining six interconnected risk tipping points that pose immediate and increasing risks to the world. 

Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2023 –  Six Risk Tipping Points

• The six risk tipping points include extinctions, depleting groundwater, melting mountain glaciers, space debris, unbearable heat and an uninsurable future. A risk tipping point is the moment at which a given socio-ecological system can no longer buffer risks and provide its expected functions. After this point, the risk of catastrophic impacts to these systems increases substantially.

What are the key findings of the Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2023?

Extinctions: Human activities such as land-use change, overexploitation, climate change, pollution, and the introduction of invasive species have accelerated species extinctions. 

• • Alarming Extinction Rates: More than 400 vertebrate species have gone extinct in the last 100 years and approximately one million plant and animal species are at risk of extinction. 
  • Cascade Effects: The disappearance of one species can trigger a cascade effect on dependent species and disrupt fragile ecosystems.
    • Example: The gopher tortoise, a keystone species, is facing extinction, affecting over 350 other species, including the critically endangered dusky gopher frog, which regulates insect populations and prevents pest outbreaks in longleaf pine forest ponds.
• Depleting Groundwater: Two billion people rely on aquifers as a primary source of freshwater, and 70% of this water is used for agriculture. 
  • Critical Depletion: However, 21 of the world’s 37 largest aquifers are depleting faster than they can be replenished for example, Saudi Arabia’s shift from wheat exporter to importer due to groundwater depletion; 
  • In India, 78 percent of wells in Punjab have been labelled overexploited, and the north-western part of the country is predicted to experience critically low groundwater availability by 2025.
• Melting Mountain Glaciers: Glaciers serve as critical water sources for drinking, irrigation, hydropower, and ecosystems. 
  • Accelerated Melting: Due to global warming, glaciers are melting at double the speed compared to the past two decades, putting 1.9 billion people at risk. 
    • Between 2000 and 2019, glaciers lost 267 gigatons of ice per year, roughly equivalent to the mass of 46,500 Great Pyramids of Giza.
  • Example: Peru’s Quelccaya glacier, once the world’s largest tropical ice cap, has shrunk by 31 per cent in the last 30 years, contributing to periodic dry season water scarcity and widespread impacts.
• Space Debris: Space debris consisting of objects such as minuscule flecks of paint and massive chunks of metal.
  • Satellite Vs Debris: There are 34,260 objects orbiting Earth, of which only around 25% are functional satellites. The remaining objects include space debris, such as broken satellites and discarded rocket stages. 
    • As these objects travel over 25,000 kilometres per hour, the smallest debris can cause significant damage, including collisions between functional satellites.
• Unbearable Heat: This tipping point in this context is a so-called  “wet-bulb temperature” exceeding 35°C, which combines temperature and humidity. 
  • • The wet-bulb temperature is defined as the temperature of a parcel of air cooled to saturation (100% relative humidity) by the evaporation of water into it, with the latent heat supplied by the parcel.
  • High humidity inhibits the evaporation of sweat, exacerbating the effects of heat and potentially causing organ failure and brain damage. 
  • Extreme heat was responsible for an average of 500,000 excess deaths annually in the last two decades.
  • Examples: Wet-bulb temperatures have crossed this critical threshold in at least two weather stations, one in the Persian Gulf and one in the Indus River Basin.
• An Uninsurable Future: The frequency and severity of extreme weather events have increased weather-related disaster damages sevenfold since the 1970s also wildfires and storms are expanding due to climate change.
  • In 2022, global economic losses due to weather-related disasters amounted to $313 billion
  • Impact on Insurance Industry: As extreme weather events become more destructive, insurance premiums have increased by as much as 57% since 2015.
    • Insurance companies in at-risk areas have limited the amount or type of coverage, canceled policies, or left the market.
    • Example: Over half a million Australian homes are expected to be uninsurable by 2030, primarily due to rising flood risk.

Also read: Redouble Efforts To Reduce Disaster Risks

Recommendations: The Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2023 proposes two categories for solutions: Avoid solutions, and Adapt solutions

• Avoid solutions: Target root causes and drivers of risk to avoid risk tipping points altogether.
• Adapt solutions: Help prepare or better address the negative impacts of risk tipping points if they cannot be avoided.
  • India’s membership of the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), a global partnership to promote climate and disaster resilience of new and existing infrastructure systems, will help mainstream climate considerations into transport infrastructure development.
• For both Avoid and Adapt solutions, there are two types of actions. 
  • Delay Actions: Work within the existing “business as usual” system and aim to slow down the progression toward risk tipping points or the worst impacts. 
    • The Emissions Gap Report 2022 states a crucial need to cut emissions by 45% to avert a global catastrophe.
    • Viable solutions for societal transformation are available, emphasizing the need for immediate collective, multilateral action.
  • Transform Action: It involves a fundamental reimagining of a system into something stronger and more sustainable than before.
    • A number of countries have made commitments to move to a net zero emissions economy. In order to meet the 1.5°C global warming target in the Paris Agreement, global carbon emissions should reach net zero around mid-century.
    • India is committed to achieve the Net Zero emissions target by 2070.
      • Net zero refers to a state in which the greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere are balanced by removal out of the atmosphere.
• Transformative Changes: The Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2023 underscores the interconnected nature of risks and advocates for transformative changes that impact behaviors and values.
• Overall Changes to Reduce Risk:
  • The Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2023 highlights broad behavioral and societal shifts that can transform systems and reduce overall risk.
  • These include a shift towards zero waste, a stronger connection to nature, global cooperation and trust, consideration for future generations, and transitioning to an economic model focused on human well-being within planetary boundaries.

Conclusion:

These risk tipping points underscore the need for proactive measures, transformational changes, and global cooperation to mitigate their impact and build a sustainable future.