Context: 

This editorial is based on the news “C Raja Mohan writes: Why Shehbaz Sharif as PM does not signal a new beginning in India-Pakistan relations” which was published in the Indian Express. The assumption of Shehbaz Sharif as Prime Minister of Pakistan after the formation of a coalition government sparks interest in India Pakistan relations.

Reasons for Low Expectation of a New Beginning in India Pakistan Relations

• India’s Priorities: 

  • Pakistan has become a lower priority in India’s recent foreign policy.
    • India has demonstrated a willingness to live with the freeze in bilateral relations and has reshaped terms of engagement established in the early 1990s.
    • Bilateral engagement is considered high-cost and low-reward, especially for Pakistan with a weak government and multiple domestic challenges.

• Pakistan’s Fixation on India: 

  • Pakistan has set pre-conditions for engagement, including rolling back changes in Kashmir’s constitutional status made in 2019.
    • Any positive movement in Pakistan on relations with India would involve that Kashmir cannot be the main focus of engagement with India. 

• Pakistan Political Crisis:

• • Internal challenges in the Pakistani Government is an issue and it’s unclear if it has the political strength to move forward with India amid tensions with the popular Imran Khan.

• Economic Disparities (GDP of Pakistan vs India)

  • India’s GDP at $3.7 trillion is now ten times larger than the GDP of Pakistan (around $350 billion), and the gap is expected to widen. 
    • While India celebrates economic growth, Pakistan is grappling with economic decline.

Challenges in the Economic Reform Plans of Pakistan

The new Prime Minister emphasised the need for significant economic reforms, describing it as “deep systemic surgery.” However, there are various challenges Pakistan has to face in its pursuit of Economic Reforms;

• Military led state:  

  • The ability of Pakistan’s military-led deep state‘s  to persist with reform is a concern.

• Political Legitimacy: 

  • The new government lacks political legitimacy to back critical reforms in the economy.
    • Nor is it clear if it has the policy competence.

• Bad Track record: 

  • Pakistan has rarely completed reform programmes negotiated with the International Monetary Fund.
    • But even if  Pakistan is able to reform its economy, it’s a long process.

• Geopolitical Pressures on Pakistan: 

  • Pakistan has the challenge of balancing its position between China and the US, traditional allies now in conflict. This struggle complicates internal reform efforts.
    • Four decades of Pakistan’s investment in controlling Afghanistan has gone awry, with the US withdrawing from the country and the Taliban returning to power.

Conclusion

While maintaining minimal engagement with the Pakistani government, India can reconnect with the divergent social, political and economic formations of Pakistan. By doing this, India will be well-prepared for constructive engagement if and when there is a shift in Pakistan’s approach towards India.