Context

A large number of Myanmar Army personnel are fleeing to India as the battle with the military junta regime intensifies.

Myanmar Army Personnel Cross India Myanmar Border Amid Tensions

• Military personnel entered India and took refuge in Mizoram’s Lawngtlai district after their camps were captured by the Arakan Army (AA) militants.
• The Arakan Army (AA) is an ethnic armed militant group that traces its origin to the western Myanmar state of Rakhine.
• Myanmar is undergoing internal turmoil after three ethnic armed groups launched coordinated attacks against the military regime.
• This is not the first time that refugees from Myanmar have entered India. Previously, civilians and democratic activists had entered India to save themselves.
• The continuous influx of refugees is set to create new tensions between the centre and state government. It would also hamper India’s diplomatic ties with Myanmar.
• Further, it could alter the regional ethnic balance and create more tensions among the various ethnic groups of the region.

Background: India Myanmar Relations

• Border: India shares a 1,643 kilometer border with Myanmar, making it a gateway to the economies of Southeast Asia. It is also central to India’s Act East policy.
  • The states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram share their borders with Myanmar.
• Historical Ties: India and Myanmar share common Buddhist heritage. About 90% of Myanmarese follow Theravada Buddhism.
  • Myanmar was a British Indian province and was only separated in 1937. Hence, there are socio-cultural ties between the two nations.
• Deterioration of India Myanmar Relations: Following the military coup in 1960s, India’s ties with Myanmar deteriorated as India condemned Myanmar’s actions. Indian-origin Myanmarese nationals were expelled as a result.
• Resurgence in Relations: In the 1980s, India adopted an open-minded approach to deal with Myanmar. It cultivated good ties with military leadership.
• India Myanmar Projects: 
  • Kaladan Multi-modal Transit project: It involves a road-river-port cargo transport project, to connect Kolkata to Sittwe in Myanmar’s Rakhine state and then from Myanmar’s Kaladan river to Mizoram.
  • Asian Trilateral Highway: The Asian Trilateral Highway will connect India to Southeast Asian countries.
    • It will begin at Guwahati and continue till Thailand, through Myanmar. It will ultimately connect Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh City.

Instability in Myanmar: Reasons

• Tatmadaw Rule

• • In 2021, the Myanmar military captured power through a coup d’etat, thus ousting the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi from power.
  • Since returning to power, the Tatmadaw (military) has launched a crackdown against the pro-democracy protesters, MPs, MLAs, and ministers belonging to Suu Kyi’s ruling National League for Democracy (NLD).
  • Many of these politicians and protestors have crossed the border with India and took shelter in Mizoram.
  • The military junta has flexed its muscles but is still losing territories to Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) that formed to fight the regime. 
  • To overcome the opposition, the army has resorted to use of airstrikes on opposition territories, which has caused food shortages, extreme instability and near economic collapse.
  • To give legitimacy for its rule, the military junta is planning to conduct a farce election, so that they get voted to power. Citizens have opposed this idea.

• Rohingyas Issue

• • Rohingyas are an ethnic Muslim minority group that is predominantly found in the coastal province of Rakhine.
  • Rohingyas trace their roots to Bangladesh and were brought to Myanmar by the British. They have been facing protests from Myanmar’s majority Buddhist population.
  • In 2016 and 2017, the Tatmadaw and local security forces carried out a campaign against the Rohingya, killing thousands of people and razing hundreds of villages.
  • Even after Suu Kyi came to power, her government was forced to defend the military junta on international forums.
  • After the junta returned to power, they continued their acts of genocide. The Rohingyas have formed various armed organisations to fight the military.
  • These armed organisations have joined hands with other ethnic groups to carry out attacks against the military.

• Chinese Influence

• • China has always been a close ally of Myanmar’s military regime. It has given de facto recognition to the junta regime.
  • China considers Myanmar as its backyard and does not want other countries to be involved in its affairs. The rampant support of the military junta’s policy was part of this plan.
  • Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China is constructing the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor in Rakhine State to connect China’s landlocked Yunnan Province to the Indian Ocean. 
  • After the coup, there have been attacks on several Chinese-run factories. China is providing the military with arms to quell the protests.

• Economic Meltdown

• • After the first coup in the 1960s, the military rulers nationalised the resources of the country. This put its economy under international sanctions.
  • Due to the autocratic rule, many countries have imposed sanctions on Myanmar. This has prevented trade of Myanmar’s resources.
  • Many foreign investors have already pulled out of Myanmar due to significant constraints, civil unrest, and foreign sanctions. Poverty rate is expected to double.

• Clashes with Various Ethnic Groups

• • Since the coup in 2021, ethnic armed groups have been reluctant to cooperate with the military regime due to various differences.
  • The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Arakan Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), have formed the Brotherhood Alliance to fight the army.
  • These ethnic groups have opened war fronts across the country, mainly near the borders with China and India.
  • The ethnic groups have attacked military outposts causing damage and forcing military personnel to escape to India.
  • Similarly, the retaliatory attacks by Myanmar’s military have forced rebels and civilians to cross the border and seek refuge in India.

About North East Insurgency

• States in North East India: The Northeast region comprises the states of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya and Sikkim.
  • The region is connected to the mainland through the Siliguri corridor, which is 21 km long and hence considered a strategic and vulnerable area.
• Bordering Countries: The countries of Bhutan, China, Myanmar and Bangladesh share boundaries with northeast states. These boundaries are porous at many places.
• Inhabitants: Northeast is a multicultural region with about 475 ethnic groups and 400 languages/ dialects. Hence, the region is sensitive.
• Insurgency: Since colonial times, there have been conflicts between the tribes of northeast and the ruling class. Despite efforts to subjugate, the people of the region have refused to accede to Indian rule.
  • Even after independence, ethnic groups such as Bodos, Nagas, Meitis, Mizos, Kuki etc have demanded independent nations based on ethnic lines.
  • In order to achieve their objective, they have resorted to arms struggle. This had created instability in the northeast, forcing the government to use martial laws such as AFSPA.
• Reasons: The main reason for the secessionist movement was the ethnic difference between northeast people and mainland Indians. Northeast people consider themselves ethnically and culturally similar to people in Southeast Asia.

Myanmar’s Role in Instability in North-East

• Porous Border: The border with Myanmar is unfenced and porous. It is easy for locals to move from one country to another without an appropriate route. This enables miscreants to escape to Myanmar after committing a crime in India.
• Availability of Weapons: The border with Myanmar is used to smuggle large numbers of weapons into Northeast India, especially Manipur. 
• Funding through Narcotics Trade: Myanmar is the entry point for narcotics entering India. Many insurgent groups indulge in narcotics trade to earn money for armed struggle.
• Ethnic Ties: The people of Myanmar share ethnic ties with people of Mizoram, Manipur as well as Nagaland. The ethnic clashes will likely generate support from across the border.
• Unstable Government: Myanmar has been under an unstable government since the 1960s. This has further deteriorated after the coup of 2021. Without a stable government, it is difficult to control border territories.
• Refugee Influx: The influx of refugees from Myanmar into Manipur was one of the reasons for ethnic clashes between Meiteis and Kukis.

Instability in Myanmar and Its Impact on India’s North East states 

• Trade Route: India has invested heavily in developing alternative trade routes to north-eastern states through Myanmar. Any instability in Myanmar will put the plans under threat.
• Peace: The North-east region in India has achieved peace after a long phase. Any instability in Myanmar could impact the peace process in India adversely.
• Armed Insurgency: Armed insurgent groups have come to the negotiating table and many have given up arms. Myanmar clashes could push insurgents into India.
• Refugee Crisis: In case of increased refugee influx from Myanmar, the ethnic politics in Northeast Indian states will also be impacted.
• Affect India’s Foreign Policy: The continuation of fighting in Myanmar could affect the way India carries out transactions with Myanmar.
• Ethnic Imbalance: The settling of outsiders from Myanmar could alter the ethnic balance, thereby further fuelling ethnic tensions between communities.

India’s Challenges Amidst Instability in Myanmar

• Sealing the Border: The biggest challenge for India would be to seal the border with Myanmar without hurting sentiments of the locals, who share historical ties with Myanmar people.
• Maintaining Peace in North-east: India would want to prevent the escalation of conflict in the region so that it does not spread to North-eastern states.
• Protecting Investments in Myanmar: India has invested heavily in Sittwe port and Kaladan multi-modal transit project. India will be eager to save its investments in this region.
• Maintain Relationship with Military Junta: India has maintained good relationship with the Military junta even during their previous rule. Giving shelter to Myanmar’s nationals would not sit well with the military rulers.
• Uphold Democratic Ideals: As a member of democratic club, India would have to keep a distance from autocratic military rulers, else it would attract the wrath of the international community.
• Stopping Narcotics Trade: The conflict in Myanmar has given rise to narcotics trade as the trade will be used to fund armed struggle against the military.
• Reduce Chinese Influence: China wields significant influence over the military regime. India would not like to see a puppet regime in its backyard. 

Way forward

• Engage with Other Stakeholders: India must be ready to engage with other regional stakeholders such as Myanmar and Bangladesh to arrive at a solution.
• Foreign Aid: Foreign aid agencies need to be convinced to handle casualties in the internal war. This will reduce dependence on India.