Context:

Indian citizens living in the Rakhine state of Myanmar have been advised by the Ministry of External Affairs to leave the region immediately.

Myanmar’s Rakhine State Unrest: Indian Citizens Urged to Evacuate Amid Escalating Violence

• Details of Directive: Based on the deteriorating security situation in the troubled region, the ministry has requested Indians to refrain from travelling to the region. 
• Reason: The Rakhine state and several other regions of Myanmar have been in witnessing violence due to fighting taking place between armed ethnic groups and the ruling junta.
  • Since November 2023, several towns of Myanmar and regions near the India-Myanmar border have witnessed violence and subsequent migration.
• Violence Occurring: The Myanmar military has been carrying out airstrikes against its opponents, especially the groups carrying out an armed struggle against the ruling regime.
  • Not just civilians, but Myanmarese soldiers have also entered India to save themselves from the attacks of armed ethnic minorities.

Myanmar’s Crisis Background: Military Rule, Chinese Influence, and Ethnic Clashes

• Myanmar’s Political Turmoil: Tatmadaw’s Coup, Crackdown, and Controversial Elections

• • In 2021, the Myanmar military captured power through a coup d’etat, thus ousting the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi from power.
  • Since returning to power, the Tatmadaw (military) has launched a crackdown against the pro-democracy protesters, MPs, MLAs, and ministers belonging to Suu Kyi’s ruling National League for Democracy (NLD).
  • The military junta has flexed its muscles but is still losing territories to Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) that formed to fight the regime. 
  • To give legitimacy to its rule, the military junta is planning to conduct a farce election, so that they get voted to power. Citizens have opposed this idea.

• China’s Strategic Moves: Influence in Myanmar Amidst Political Upheaval

• • China has always been a close ally of Myanmar’s military regime. It has given de facto recognition to the junta regime.
  • China considers Myanmar as its backyard and does not want other countries to be involved in its affairs. The rampant support of the military junta’s policy was part of this plan.
  • Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China is constructing the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor in Rakhine State to connect China’s landlocked Yunnan Province to the Indian Ocean. 
  • After the coup, there have been attacks on several Chinese-run factories. China is providing the military with arms to quell the protests.

• Myanmar’s Economic Crisis: Impact of Political Unrest and International Sanctions

• • After the first coup in the 1960s, the military rulers nationalised the resources of the country. This put its economy under international sanctions.
  • Due to the autocratic rule, many countries have imposed sanctions on Myanmar. This has prevented trade of Myanmar’s resources.
  • Many foreign investors have already pulled out of Myanmar due to significant constraints, civil unrest, and foreign sanctions. Poverty rate is expected to double.

• Myanmar’s Ethnic Strife: Armed Clashes, Forced Migration, and Border Tensions

• • Since the coup in 2021, ethnic armed groups have been reluctant to cooperate with the military regime due to various differences.
  • The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Arakan Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), have formed the Brotherhood Alliance to fight the army.
  • The ethnic groups have attacked military outposts causing damage and forcing military personnel to escape to India.
  • Similarly, the retaliatory attacks by Myanmar’s military have forced rebels and civilians to cross the border and seek refuge in India.

Exploring Rakhine State: Geography, History, and Natural Resources

• Location: Rakhine, known formerly as Arakan State, is a state on the western coast of Myanmar. Sittwe is the capital of Rakhine state.
  • Rakhine is bordered by Chin State, Magway and Ayeyarwady (Myanmar), the Bay of Bengal to the west and the Chittagong Division (Bangladesh) to the northwest.
  • The Arakan Yoma mountains, in north-south direction, separate Rakhine State from central Myanmar.
• Administration: Previously this territory was under the rule of Burmese kingdom. The Treaty of Yandabo, which followed the First Anglo-Burmese war (1824-26), ceded Arakan to British India.   
• Major Cities: Sittwe, Mrauk-U, Kyaukpyu, Maungdaw.
• Major Rivers: Naf river, Kaladan river, Lemro river, Mayu river.
• Resources: The Rakhine region has potential for petroleum and natural gas production. Coconut, timber, bamboo and fuel wood are available in mountainous region.

Rakhine State Unrest: A History of Violence, Rohingya Persecution, and Ongoing Ethnic Tensions

• History of Violence in Rakhine State: 

• • Myanmar is a multi-ethnic society, with varieties of ethnic groups living since ages in the region.
  • The Rakhine state is home to the Rohingyas, who are a Muslim ethnic group. They are not considered citizens by Myanmar’s government under the citizenship law.
  • Majoritarian Buddhist nationalist groups such as MaBaTha and the anti-Muslim 969 movement, have been calling for the expulsion of Muslims from Myanmar.
  • The underlying tensions escalated in 2012 after a spate of violence on Rohingyas. Large number of them were killed or internally displaced.
  • As a response, a group of Rohingya militants called the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) emerged in 2017. The group attacked military and police outposts, killing seventy people, including twelve Burmese security forces personnel.
  • The military launched a brutal crackdown on Rohingya villages, forcing seven lakh people to flee across the border to Bangladesh.
  • Since the first crackdown, Myanmar’s military has conducted a series of raids on Rohingya villages, killing and injuring civilians.
  • The Rohingyas were not allowed to vote in the 2016 general elections. The National League for Democracy party, which came to power, failed to control violence.
  • The government held a national peace conference to end fighting between the military and a number of armed ethnic groups, but Rohingya representatives were not invited to attend.

• Myanmar’s Ongoing Turmoil: Post-2021 Coup Violence, Ethnic Clashes, and Rohingya Refugee Crisis

• • After seizing power in the 2021 military coup, the military junta imposed a year-long state of emergency. Civilian politicians were imprisoned or forced to flee.
  • The military has been carrying out a series of attacks on ethnic groups that it considers to be harmful for its interests.
  • The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has been a target of the military. In response, it has also attacked military personnel.
  • The military regime has made it clear that Rohingya refugees forced to live in refugee camps of Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar will not be allowed to return anytime soon.

Myanmar’s Impact on India: Trade Routes, Peace Process, and the Challenges of Insurgency and Refugees

• Trade Route: India has invested heavily in developing alternative trade routes to north-eastern states through Myanmar. Any instability in Myanmar will put the plans under threat.
• Peace: The North-east region in India has achieved peace after a long phase. Any instability in Myanmar could impact the peace process in India adversely.
• Armed Insurgency: Armed insurgent groups have come to the negotiating table and many have given up arms. Myanmar clashes could push insurgents into India.
• Refugee Crisis: In case of increased refugee influx from Myanmar, the ethnic politics in Northeast Indian states will also be impacted.
• Affect India’s Foreign Policy: The continuation of fighting in Myanmar could affect the way India carries out transactions with Myanmar.
• Ethnic Imbalance: The settling of outsiders from Myanmar could alter the ethnic balance, thereby further fuelling ethnic tensions between communities.

India’s Role in Restoring Normalcy in Myanmar: Diplomatic Strategies for Restoring Stability

• Building Ties: For any sort of influence, India needs to cultivate ties with decision-makers. Engaging with Generals of Tatmadaw can help India put some pressure. 
• Engage with Stakeholders: India must be ready to engage with other regional stakeholders such as Myanmar and Bangladesh to arrive at a solution.
• Engage with Opposition: India’s engagement must not be restricted with just the Tatmadaw. There must be efforts to have dialogue with the opposing pro-democracy faction as well.

Conclusion

Unless intervention by western powers, the unrest in Myanmar is set to continue. There are multiple stakeholders such as the West, India and China, who would want their own interests to prevail rather than those of common citizens.