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Introduction:

The geopolitical landscape in South Asia is rapidly evolving, with Bangladesh emerging as a focal point of strategic competition between India and China. A recent incident highlighting this shift is the joint military exercise “China-Bangladesh Golden Friendship 2024,” which included anti-terrorism operations and hostage rescue scenarios. This event underscores China’s growing military and economic influence in Bangladesh, posing significant strategic challenges for India.

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Geopolitical Implications of Growing Foreign Influence in Bangladesh:

• Strategic and Security Concerns:
  • Chinese Military Presence: The increasing number of Chinese military exercises and the provision of advanced military hardware to Bangladesh, including submarines and fighter jets, heighten security concerns for India. These developments enhance China’s strategic presence in India’s immediate neighbourhood.
  • Submarine Base at Cox’s Bazar: The establishment of a Chinese-built submarine base in Bangladesh at Cox’s Bazar poses a strategic threat to India by potentially enabling Chinese naval operations in the Bay of Bengal, thereby disrupting the regional balance of power.
• Economic Competition:
  • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China’s substantial investments in Bangladesh under the BRI, totaling over $38 billion, significantly overshadow India’s economic engagements. These investments span infrastructure, energy, and connectivity projects, potentially marginalising India’s influence and economic interests in Bangladesh.
  • Trade Imbalance: The growing trade volume between China and Bangladesh, which reached $25 billion, exacerbates the trade imbalance in favour of China, potentially sidelining Indian exports and economic influence in the region .
• Political Influence:
  • Diplomatic Relations: China’s unwavering support for Bangladesh’s ruling party, the Awami League, and its non-interference stance in Bangladesh’s internal matters strengthen its political influence, challenging India’s historical ties and influence over Bangladesh.
  • Election Dynamics: The geopolitical rivalry impacts Bangladesh’s elections, with both China and India vying for influence over the political landscape, affecting India’s ability to maintain favourable relations regardless of the ruling party.

Ways to Safeguard Indian Interests:

• Strengthening Bilateral Relations:
  • Enhanced Diplomatic Engagement: India should intensify diplomatic efforts to reinforce its historical and cultural ties with Bangladesh.
    For example: High-level visits and strategic dialogues can help address mutual concerns and build trust.
  • Economic Cooperation: Expanding economic cooperation through increased investments, trade agreements, and infrastructure projects can counterbalance Chinese economic influence.
    For example: Initiatives like the India-Bangladesh Coastal Shipping Agreement can enhance connectivity and trade.
• Security and Defence Collaboration:
  • Joint Military Exercises: Increasing the frequency and scope of joint military exercises with Bangladesh can bolster defence ties and enhance interoperability between the two militaries.
    For example: Counter-terrorism drills and maritime security operations.
  • Defence Technology Transfers: Providing advanced defence technologies and training to the Bangladeshi military can help maintain a strategic edge and deter Chinese military influence.
• Multilateral Engagement:
  • Regional Cooperation Frameworks: Promoting regional cooperation through forums like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) can foster collective security and economic development.
    For example: Joint initiatives on disaster management, counter-terrorism, and maritime security.
  • Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad): Leveraging partnerships within the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, and the US) can provide a counterbalance to Chinese influence and ensure regional stability. For example: Joint initiatives on infrastructure development, cyber security, and maritime security can be pivotal.

Conclusion:

India must adopt a multi-faceted strategy to safeguard its interests in Bangladesh amidst growing Chinese influence. By strengthening bilateral relations, enhancing security cooperation, and engaging in regional multilateral frameworks, India can maintain its strategic foothold and ensure regional stability. Future efforts should focus on sustainable economic partnerships, strategic defence collaborations, and proactive diplomatic engagements to navigate the evolving geopolitical dynamics effectively.

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