With the experience of significant geopolitical challenges in India’s neighbourhood since 2021, the time has come to reassess its diplomatic strategies and regional engagement with neighbouring countries.

• India must learn lessons from the changes in most of its neighbourhood.

About South Asia

South Asia is home to one of the world’s earliest known civilizations, the Indus civilization, and today is one of the most densely populated regions on the planet. South Asia’s people are its biggest asset but remain wastefully underutilised.

• Comprises: South Asia includes the countries of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka; Afghanistan and the Maldives are often considered part of South Asia as well. 
  • The term is often used synonymously with “Indian subcontinent,” though the latter term is sometimes used more restrictively to refer to Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan.
• Significance of South Asia: 
  • Strategic Location: Southeast Asia has its strategic location due to its location between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal and abundant natural resources. Many major powers, like China, sought to influence the region.
    • The region is also home to several nuclear powers, including India and Pakistan. 
  • Economic Significance: Half its population is under the age of 24 and over one million young people are set to enter the labour force every month until 2030.
    • If the quantity and quality of South Asia’s human capital were to improve, regional GDP per worker could double. 

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Concerning Recent Events in India’s Neighbourhood

From the start of this decade, India has received one shock after another in its neighbourhood. 

• Myanmar: Coup in 2021
• Afghanistan: The Taliban takeover in 2022
• Pakistan: The ouster of Prime Minister Imran Khan from office
• Sri Lanka: Riots that pushed Gotabaya Rajapaksa out of the country
• Maldives: Electoral change that pushed the more India-friendly Solih government out
• Nepal: Electoral change wrought by coalitions collapsing, has brought the less India-friendly Oli government in. 
• Bangladesh: The shock of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s dramatic departure has left India scrambling to reach out to her successors. 

Lessons for India from these Events

Following lessons need to be learned by India from the present scenario and need to work accordingly.

• Need to Avoid One-Sided Engagement: India often stayed on one side of the fence i.e., aligned with specific governments, and ignored to keep a close contact with the opposition. 
  • Example: In Bangladesh, India aligned with Sheikh Hasina’s party (Awami League) and ignored the opposition (Bangladesh Nationalist Party). 
• Strengthen Ties with Allies and Reputation: India must never forget its friends and need to consistently provide support to them. In South Asia, leaders often lose power, only to return after some time.
  • India’s refusal to help Afghan officials after the Taliban takeover harmed its reputation as a reliable partner. However, India has done well by allowing Sheikh Hasina to stay in India until she finds another safe destination is a remarkable step. 
• Avoid Communal Lenses: South Asia is a region of religious majorities, the assumption that good ties are somehow linked to religion in any way, is faulty. 
  • Hindu-majority Nepal has been one of India’s most difficult relationships, while Buddhist-majority Bhutan and Muslim-majority Maldives have often been its best allies. 
  • The government’s move on the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, to fast-track citizenship only for non-Muslims from Muslim-majority countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh) can damage relationships with neighbourhood — not just in the countries it mentions, but others who see it as India’s overreach. 
  • India’s concern for minorities in Bangladesh in the wake of Ms. Hasina’s removal is well placed, but must be expressed more discreetly. 
• Revival of South Asian Mechanisms: The region must not become a playground for the US-China rivalries, where neither shows a sensitivity to India’s interests. 
  • India must revive pan-South Asian mechanisms such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, or BIMSTEC and find ways to engage with the neighbourhood without external interference. 
• Inclusive Growth and Development: Not just India but all South Asian capitals must focus on addressing issues of joblessness and unequal growth. 

Regionalism in South Asia

The nature and context of the formation of the states in South Asia after the process of decolonisation and the impact of the Cold War on the region played major roles in not allowing the idea of regionalism to grow in the region. 

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• Background: The Partition of British India into India and Pakistan, the secession of Bangladesh from Pakistan, and the wars involved in the process became the main impediments that stopped the dissemination of the idea of regionalism in South Asia.
  • In addition, the contradiction between the foundational principles of India and Pakistan did not allow any kind of meaningful cooperation between these countries.
  • As far as the impact of the Cold War is concerned, it played a significant role in the formation and consolidation of the European Union as a successful example of regionalism and regional cooperation. However, it prevented any sort of cooperative ventures in South Asia.
• Opportunities for Regionalism in South Asia:
  • Stability: Regional cooperation can lead to greater stability and security by promoting dialogue and understanding among countries.
  • Development: Regional cooperation can lead to greater investment in infrastructure, such as transportation and energy projects that can improve connectivity and economic growth.
    • Also, regional cooperation can help to integrate the economies of the countries and make them more competitive in the global market.
  • Shared Vision: Regionalism cooperation can help the countries to develop a shared vision for their future and work together to achieve common goals.
• Challenges with Regional Cooperation in South Asia:
  • Low Trade: South Asia’s intra-regional trade is the lowest globally, constituting only 5% of the region’s total trade. Trade among South Asian countries currently totals just $23 billion far below an estimated value of at least $67 billion.
    • Significant economic disparities between South Asian countries in the region make it difficult to establish a level playing field for trade and investment.
  • External Influence: The external powers influence bilateral relations in South Asia because no region exists in the vacuum. It is influenced by outside powers- China and the US remain key players in South Asian politics.
    • Recent Chinese actions and policies in South Asia as well as its maritime neighbours, including Indian Ocean island nations, have made it necessary for India to take its neighbours very seriously.
  • Territorial Issues: Territorial disputes in South Asia continue to pose threat to the region’s peace, security, and development, because most of the nation-states’ borders were drawn during British colonial rule, territorial disputes in South Asia remain fiercely fought, fragile, and chaotic.
  • Inefficient Management of Global Supply Chain: South Asia’s international trade integration is lower than the global average. 
    • Also, risks as diverse as extreme weather events, cyberattacks, sanctions and tariffs, and financial performance across both suppliers and transport routes can all have devastating impacts on the reliability of a supply chain.
  • Political Tensions: Various historical conflicts, border disputes, and ongoing political tensions make it difficult to foster cooperation and regional integration.
  • Trust Issues: Lack of trust between countries of South Asia is a major obstacle to regional cooperation and integration.

India’s Challenges in South Asia

Following are the various challenges faced by India that need to be considered and tackled.

• Kashmir as the Unfinished Agenda: Pakistan sees the Kashmir question as the unfinished agenda of Partition and is not willing to put it aside even temporarily to develop a limited but positive engagement with India and facilitate South Asian regional integration under the auspices of SAARC.   
• Economic Partitions and Political Barriers: The Subcontinent’s political partition was paralleled by an economic divide, as India and its neighbours embraced autarky, reinforcing borders as both political and commercial barriers.
• Akhand Bharat Vision: The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) version of “Akhand Bharat” or “Greater India” or the liberal version of an integrated Subcontinent are both viewed with deep suspicion. 
  • The neighbouring elites see a fundamental contradiction between a regional order led by India and their national sovereignties.
• Political Flip-Flop: The same party and the same leader can adopt both positions at different times towards India.
  • Imran Khan attacked Nawaz Sharif for his presumed warmth towards the Indian PM. However, in the run-up to the 2019 Indian general election, he stated that the Indian PM was Pakistan’s best bet in resolving the Kashmir question.
• Rise of Politically Anti-India Regime: Various neighbouring countries expressing the rise of politically anti-Indian regime such as Maldives, an anti-India in an instrumental sense, the newly elected government was effectively asking Indians to pack up and leave. Also, in Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (led byKhaleda Zia) is ideologically anti-India.
• China’s Footprint in South Asia: 
  • China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Many South Asian countries are increasingly entangled in Chinese infrastructure projects.
  • China’s Outreach: China outreach to South Asian states when the rest of the World abandons or avoids them such as during Taliban-led Afghanistan, military-ruled Myanmar and crisis-hit Sri Lanka highlights its growing influence.
  • Border Settlements: China’s desire to settle border disputes with its neighbours (minus India), as seen in the case of Bhutan, further strengthens its regional ties.
• Influence of Other Countries: The influence of the Middle East — Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates — is rising amidst their growing economic and military capabilities in South Asia.

Way Forward

Following measures are suggested for countries of South Asia to maintain collaboration and integrate further.

• A Realistic and Pragmatic Framing: It would help India to deal with the reality that South Asia and its balance of power have changed fundamentally. China has emerged as a serious contender for regional primacy. 
• Constructive Engagement: India needs to proactively pursue the involvement of friendly external actors in the region. It would help India to deal with the possibility of the region becoming Sino-centric.
• Flexible Diplomacy: India needs to pursue flexible diplomacy to engage multiple actors to regain neighbours’ trust and dilute the anti-India attitude. 
• Increase in Diplomatic Pursuits: India needs to work on the shortage of sufficient diplomats to implement the foreign policy.
• Strengthening Existing Associations: Existing associations like SAARC  and BIMSTEC need to be strengthened.
  • Time has come to unlink domestic sentiments from the economic rationale, engaging in diplomacy to combat concerns and focus on addressing contemporary issues like climate change, cyberattacks, countering terrorism etc.
  • Also, countries in the region need to work together to address poverty and inequality, and promote economic development and opportunities for all, particularly for marginalised groups.
• Step Towards Self-Reliance: By offering freer transit trade, the development of supply and logistic chains, digital data interchange, single-window and digitised clearance systems, risk assessment and minimisation measures, wider use of trade lines of credit, denser connectivity, smoother cross-border inspections, etc.
• People-to-people Connect: Priority should be given to people-to-people connections and deep cultural affinities for sustained cordiality and stability. 

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Conclusion

India’s dilemmas in the South Asia region call for a strategic overhaul, involving realistic approaches, collaboration with neighbouring nations, adaptable diplomacy, increased diplomatic efforts, and innovative solutions to effectively navigate the complexities posed by China’s expanding influence.

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