The United States’ (US) was absent at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s meeting in China and withdrew itself from the review of current climate science, mitigation efforts and the impact that is presently underway.
Trump Climate Policies
- Withdrawal from Global Climate Agreements: Pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement, arguing it was unfair to American businesses.
- “National Energy Emergency” and Fossil Fuel Expansion
- Declared a “national energy emergency” to prioritise fossil fuels over clean energy.
- Allowed fresh investments in the fossil fuel industry to drill more oil and gas from domestic sources.
- Revoked clean energy policies and promoted oil, gas, and coal production.
- Revived the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines to boost oil transport.
- Opposition to Renewable Energy and Climate Science
- Attempted to defund agencies like NASA’s climate research division and the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s climate programs.
- Dismissed scientific consensus on climate change, calling it a hoax.
- US Expanding Fossil Fuel Exports Globally:
- India: Signed a deal to increase US oil and gas imports.
- South Korea: Expressed interest in buying more American energy.
- Japan: Exploring US liquified natural gas imports.
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Background: The IPCC and Its Seventh Assessment Report
- The IPCC is a United Nations body that assesses climate science and informs global climate policies.
- The Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), due in 2029, is crucial for climate mitigation strategies.
- The Hangzhou meeting was a key step in shaping AR7, making US participation important.
US Stance on IPCC under the Trump Administration
- US Absence and Its Impact on Global Climate Science: The Trump administration prevented US scientists from attending the Hangzhou meeting.
- This could weaken the IPCC’s ability to provide crucial climate insights for the 2028 Global Climate Stocktake.
- US Disengagement and Sidelining From The Global Climate Science Discourse: While the US has not officially exited the IPCC, its actions reflect disengagement.
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the US Global Change Programme were ordered to stop IPCC-related work.
- Financial contributions, a significant source of IPCC funding, may also be cut off.
- These policies mirror Trump’s previous term when US support for the IPCC was withdrawn.
Global Stocktake (GST)
- The Global Stocktake (GST) is a periodic assessment under the Paris Agreement to evaluate the collective progress of countries in tackling climate change.
- It helps identify successes and gaps in meeting global climate goals.
- Under the Paris Agreement, countries set Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which are commitments to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts.
- The GST ensures accountability by reviewing progress every five years, with the first assessment completed in 2023.
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Potential Impacts on Climate Science
- Reduced Scientific Contributions from Key Agencies: NASA, NOAA, and the US Global Change Research Program have historically provided critical data for climate models and mitigation strategies.
- Without US input, key mitigation strategies might lack crucial scientific backing, affecting global decision-making.
- Example: NASA’s termination of contracts with scientists working on AR7 may slow down global collaboration on climate mitigation strategies.
- Funding Shortfalls for Climate Research: The US, a major funder of climate research, cutting financial support to the IPCC could slow scientific advancements and disrupt international collaborations.
- Disruptions to the 2028 Global Climate Stocktake: The Global Climate Stocktake assesses progress toward Paris Agreement goals and US withdrawal could limit the integration of critical findings, weakening the effectiveness of climate action.
- Potential US Exit from the UNFCCC: The US could completely abandon the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
- Such a move would cause global instability in climate governance and it could weaken the framework itself.
- Increased Burden on Other Nations: The world would struggle to offset the rise in emissions from a non-compliant US.
- Developing countries may face financial challenges in their energy transition without US funding.
- The absence of a major contributor could disrupt global climate financing.
- Ripple Effect: Countries Reconsidering Climate Commitments
- Indonesia: Officials question why they should comply if the US is not.
- Argentina: Withdrew negotiators from COP29 and signaled a Paris Agreement exit.
- South Africa: Coal transition projects could be further delayed.
- Slow Energy transition: Cheap US fossil fuels could slow global energy transition efforts.
- Countries with high energy imports (China, India, Southeast Asia) have strong incentives to decarbonize.
India’s Response to US Climate Policy Shifts
- Commitment to Paris: India reaffirms its dedication to the Paris Agreement and its own ambitious climate targets.
- Adaptation Focus: India questions global fixation on temperature targets, prioritizing adaptation over emissions cuts.
- Economic Growth Strategy: Advocates rapid economic growth as the best defense against climate change.
- Plans to reach developed-country benchmarks by 2047 and net zero by 2070.
- Clean Energy Transition: Emphasizes scaling up domestic manufacturing in clean energy to reduce foreign dependency.
- Pursues diverse energy sources: solar, wind, hydrogen, and nuclear.
- Nuclear Energy Focus: Aims to develop indigenous small modular reactors (SMRs).
- Targets 100 GW nuclear capacity by 2047 complementing broader clean energy efforts.
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New Climate Order Amidst US Policy Flips
- About New Climate Order: New Climate Order refers to a reconfiguration of global climate governance, funding, and leadership to ensure resilience and continuity, regardless of policy shifts in major economies like the US.
- It is a more decentralised, resilient, and adaptive global climate governance system.
- Priority Areas of New climate order:
- Faster Energy Transitions: Accelerate the shift to renewable energy across all economies.
- Increased Mitigation Funding: Wealthier nations must provide greater financial support for global climate action.
- Greater Research Investments: Enhance funding for climate technology, carbon capture, and sustainable solutions.
- Removal of Trade Barriers: Facilitate the free flow of critical materials for renewable energy and battery storage.
Way Forward For A New Climate Order
- Diversify Climate Leadership: Strengthen roles of the EU, China, India, and oil-rich nations.
- Secure Stable Climate Finance: Expand funding beyond the US.
- Examples: Strengthening of Green Climate Fund (GCF) and mobilising private investments.
- Enhance Technology & Trade Cooperation : Lower barriers for clean energy materials and promote global R&D collaboration.
- Establish Legal Safeguards: Make climate policies legally binding to prevent political reversals.
- Prioritise Adaptation & Resilience: Support vulnerable nations with funding, infrastructure, and disaster preparedness.
Conclusion
While US policy shifts pose challenges, collective action must continue, with or without its leadership.
- Developed economies, emerging powers, and Major carbon emitters, must step up by accelerating energy transitions and increasing climate financing to ensure a resilient and equitable climate future.
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February 28, 2025
