Total Fertility Rate

As per Sample Registration System (SRS) Report India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) remains constant at 2.0 in 2021.

Key Findings on Fertility Rate

Category	State/UT	TFR
Highest TFR	Bihar	3.0
	Assam	2.1
	Gujarat / Haryana	2.0
Lowest TFR	West Bengal	1.4
	Delhi	1.4
	Kerala / Maharashtra / TN / AP / J&K / Punjab	1.5

Does an increase in births mean that TFR will definitely go up?

An increase in the number of births does not necessarily lead to an increase in TFR.
Whether TFR will increase depends not only on the number of births (numerator), but also on the number of women in the childbearing age groups (denominator).
Thus, even if there are more births, TFR may not increase if there are also more women in the childbearing age groups.

Children (0–14 years): Their population share declined from 41.2% in 1971 to 24.8% in 2021, indicating falling birth rates.
Working-age population (15–59 years): Increased from 53.4% in 1971 to 66.2% in 2021, suggesting a potential demographic dividend.
Elderly (60+ years): Increased from 6% in 1971 to 9% in 2021, with the 65+ age group rising from 5.3% to 5.9%.

Global Total Fertility Rate Trends
Country/Region	TFR (births per woman)	Source
India	1.975 (2023)	World Bank
United States	1.84 (2025)	World Bank
Japan	1.2 (2023)	World Bank
European Union	1.38 (2023)	Eurostat
Global Average	2.3 (2022)	World Bank

Increased from 19.3 years in 1990 to 22.5 years in 2021, indicating delayed marriages and potential impact on fertility rates.

Fertility stabilization: With national TFR at 2.0, India is below the replacement level, indicating a slowing population growth.
Policy recalibration: The government needs to reassess its concerns of “fast population growth,” as highlighted during the 2024 interim budget.
Demographic dividend opportunity: A larger working-age population presents a temporary window for economic growth if supported by adequate education, health, and employment policies.
Ageing population challenge: Rising elderly proportions in several states demand policy attention on social security and geriatric care.
Need for Census: A complete demographic picture will emerge only after the long-pending Census, which was last conducted in 2011.

Definition: TFR refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to bear during her reproductive years (usually 15–49 years) under current fertility patterns.
A TFR above 2.1 indicates population growth, around 2.1 suggests replacement-level fertility, while below 2.1 signals population decline and aging, leading to long-term socio-economic and workforce challenges for a country.

Definition: Replacement level TFR is the average number of children per woman required to maintain a population at a stable level, without immigration. It is generally considered to be 2.1 for most populations.
Significance: Achieving replacement level fertility implies a balance between births and deaths, helping to stabilize the population in the long term.

Definition: The Mean Age at Effective Marriage for females is the average age at which women actually begin living with their spouses, marking the start of marital cohabitation rather than just the legal or ceremonial marriage.
Significance: This measure better reflects the timing of exposure to the risk of childbearing, and is thus a more accurate indicator for analyzing fertility patterns and reproductive behavior compared to the age at formal marriage.

Demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential resulting from a shift in a country’s age structure, mainly when the working-age population is larger than the dependent population.
India’s demographic dividend will continue at least till 2055–56. It will peak around 2041, when 59% of its population will be of working-age (20–59 years).
In India, this offers an opportunity to boost productivity and economic development, provided adequate investments are made in education, skills, and employment.

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