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Introduction

The India-China bilateral equation remains one of cautious engagement, marked by intermittent cooperation and deep strategic distrust. Despite the recent revival of diplomatic channels and functional mechanisms, the shadow of the 2020 border clash continues to loom large. The persistence of unresolved military tensions along the LAC undermines efforts toward achieving a stable and comprehensive relationship.

Significant Milestones of India-China Relations

• Kazakhstan Meeting (Oct 2024): PM Modi and President Xi met on the sidelines of the SCO summit, reviving diplomatic engagement after a long freeze.
• Resumption of High-Level Dialogues: Since the Kazan meeting, the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) has met thrice to manage border affairs.
• Tourist Visa Reinstatement & Kailash Yatra: India resumed tourist visas for Chinese nationals; China reopened the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, signaling a thaw.
• Economic Talks Initiated: Both nations agreed to hold “functional dialogues” on trade, investment, and supply chains crucial for sectors like fertilizers and electronics.
• Proposed Revival of Direct Flights: An important symbolic and functional step toward pre-2020 connectivity, with hopes that journalist visas will be next.
  

Positive Developments Supporting Normalization Prospects

• Incremental Diplomatic Engagement: Frequent WMCC meetings and the proposed Special Representatives’ talks reflect a move toward structured conflict management.
• People-to-People Exchange Restoration: Resuming visas and the pilgrimage fosters soft diplomacy, signaling intent to reduce hostility.
• Economic Interdependence Pressure: China’s export restrictions on critical minerals and India’s FDI curbs have created mutual economic discomfort, pushing both sides to negotiate.
• Expected SCO Visit (Aug 2025): Preparations for this visit suggest continued high-level commitment to stabilize ties.
• Functional Separation Approach: India appears to be compartmentalizing the border dispute from trade and diplomacy to avoid total breakdown in ties.
  

Unresolved Concerns Hindering Full Normalization

• No Resolution of LAC Transgressions: No clarity on what led the PLA to transgress in 2020 or assurance from China against future incursions.
• De-escalation Still Incomplete: Troop presence, military infrastructure, and lack of patrolling rights remain unaddressed despite government claims that border peace is a precondition for normalization.
• Lack of Transparency and Trust: India has not received credible guarantees from China, and mechanisms to restore pre-2020 border status are still stalled.
• Strategic Alignment with Pakistan: Revelations from Operation Sindoor about PLA-Pakistan cooperation raise major national security alarms for India.
• Silence on Core Issues: Both nations are avoiding direct public conversation on Galwan and broader LAC concerns, risking superficial normalization without durable trust.
  

Conclusion

While recent diplomatic openings offer a path to re-engagement, a sustainable and complete normalisation of India-China ties hinges on genuine progress in resolving core issues particularly restoring peace along the LAC. India must pursue a cautious, interest-driven approach, ensuring that tactical cooperation does not come at the cost of long-term strategic security and sovereignty.

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