A new study published in Science Advances reveals that over 9% of the world’s land area is at high or very high risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks, driven significantly by climate-related factors.

Zoonotic Risk – Global Overview

• High-Risk Land Areas Identified: 9.3% of the global land surface is at high (6.3%) or very high (3%) risk of zoonotic outbreaks — infections transferred between animals and humans.
• Population at Risk: 3% of the global population lives in extremely high-risk areas; around 20% live in medium-risk zones.
• Key Infections of Concern: COVID-19, Ebola, MERS, SARS, and Nipah are among the most prioritised zoonotic infections as per WHO.

Drivers of Zoonotic Spillovers

• Climate Change as Key Risk Factor: Higher temperatures, increased rainfall, and water scarcity are identified as major contributors to increased zoonotic risks.
• Environmental Vulnerabilities: These climate-related changes significantly increase a region’s vulnerability to spillover events, as per the study.

Risk Mapping and Methodology

• Global Data Sources Used: The study relied on the ‘Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network’ dataset and WHO’s prioritised disease list.
• Risk Index Developed: Researchers created an “epidemic risk index” combining region-specific disease risk with countries’ preparedness and response capacities (excluding SARS-CoV-2).

Regional Risk Distribution

• Latin America: 27% of its land area falls in the high/very high-risk category.
• Oceania: 18.6% of its land also falls into these categories.
• Asia: 7% and Africa: 5% of land areas are at elevated risk.

Zoonotic Trends in India

• ICMR Study Insights (2018–2023): A study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), published in The Lancet Regional Southeast Asia, found that 8.3% of reported disease outbreaks in India were zoonotic.
  • Out of 6,948 outbreaks analysed, 583 involved animal-to-human transmission.
• Seasonal Peak: Outbreaks consistently peaked during the months of June, July, and August.

Policy Relevance and Recommendations

• Need for Public Health Integration: The study emphasizes integrating climate mitigation and adaptation strategies into public health planning.
• Use of Epidemic Risk Index: This tool can help identify high-risk zones, guide policymaker interventions, strengthen response systems, and encourage international cooperation.

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