Recently, Russia became the first nation to officially recognize the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
- Russia had maintained de facto engagement since 2021, keeping its embassy in Kabul functional.
- Other countries like China, UAE, Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan have informal ties but no formal recognition.
Taliban: Historical Overview
Origin and Rise (1994-2001):
- Formed in 1994 in Kandahar by Mullah Mohammad Omar and other religious students.
- Emerged after the Soviet withdrawal (1989), amidst civil war and instability.
- Controlled about 90% of Afghanistan by 1996, establishing a strict Islamic Emirate governed by Sharia law.
- Internationally isolated, recognized only by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.
- Ousted after the 2001 US-led invasion following the 9/11 attacks.
Insurgency and Return (2001-2021):
- Taliban fought a 20-year insurgency against NATO and the Afghan government.
- US-Taliban Doha Agreement (2020) led to the withdrawal of US and NATO forces.
- Taliban regained control over Afghanistan by August 15, 2021, reestablishing the Islamic Emirate.
|
Why Russia Recognised the Taliban?
- Security Interests: Counterterrorism Priority: ISKP (Islamic State–Khorasan Province) has become the top terrorist threat for Russia.
- Taliban, despite past hostility, is seen as a lesser evil and an effective bulwark against ISKP, which is ideologically hostile to both Moscow and the Taliban.
- Strategic Influence in Central Asia: Russia aims to maintain dominance in Central Asian republics (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, etc.).
- Afghanistan borders Tajikistan and is crucial for regional security architecture.
- Geoeconomic Interests: Afghanistan is viewed as a transit corridor to South Asia and the Indian Ocean.
- The Trans-Afghan Railway project, supported by Russia and Uzbekistan, connects Central Asia to South Asia.
- Realpolitik and Great Power Competition: Russia seeks to match China’s early diplomatic moves, including:
- China accepted the Taliban ambassador in Feb 2024.
- Chinese investment in Afghan oil, copper, and lithium.
- Recognition allows Russia to compete for strategic and economic influence in Afghanistan and Eurasia.
- US Withdrawal (February 2021) created a power vacuum in Afghanistan, attracting regional powers (India, Iran, China, Russia) to assert influence.
- Foreign Policy Messaging to the West: Aimed at undermining the Western consensus of isolating the Taliban.
- Signals Russia’s tilt toward a “post-Western world order”, where interests trump ideological norms.
- Domestic Political and Symbolic Factors: In December 2024, Russia removed the Taliban from its official list of terrorist organisations.
- Recognition thus appears legally and diplomatically prepared.
Geopolitical Importance of Afghanistan
- Geographic Crossroads: Connects Central, South, and West Asia; key to Trans-Afghan Railway and trade corridors.
- Gateway to South Asia: Russia and China view it as vital for accessing markets like India and Pakistan.
- Strategic depth for Pakistan: Often seen through the prism of “strategic backyard,” influencing Kabul-Islamabad dynamics.
- Natural Resources: Estimated $1 trillion in untapped minerals (e.g., lithium, copper); fuels Chinese and Russian interests.
- Counter-terrorism relevance: Base for ISKP; security in Afghanistan directly affects regional stability.
- Influence in Islamic world: Taliban’s de facto power creates ideological ripples from West Asia to Southeast Asia.
- Water politics: Kabul River and Amu Darya are transboundary rivers critical to Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia.
|
India-Afghanistan Relations: Historical Perspective
Ancient Period
- Indus Valley Civilization: Historical ties trace back to the Indus Valley Civilization, where trade and cultural exchanges were prominent.
- Gandhara Region: Gandhara, part of modern-day Afghanistan, was one of the 16 Mahajanapadas in the Vedic Age. It was a hub for Buddhism, introduced by the Mauryan Empire.
- Bamiyan Buddhas: These majestic sculptures highlighted the influence of Buddhism in the region Period
- Cultural Exchange: Afghanistan served as a gateway for cultural exchanges and the spread of Islam into India.
- Political Integration: Several rulers of the Indian subcontinent, including the Mughals, had Afghan roots, further intertwining the two regions.
Colonial Era
- Anglo-Afghan Relations: Afghanistan’s strategic location led to several conflicts between British India and Afghanistan, including the Anglo-Afghan Wars (1839–1842, 1878–1880).
- Durand Line: Established in 1893 by the British, this boundary caused long-term disputes and instability in the region .
Post-Independance
- Treaty of Friendship (1950): India and Afghanistan established formal diplomatic relations, emphasizing mutual respect and sovereignty .
- Afghanistan’s Neutrality: Participation in the Asian Relations Conference (1947) emphasized its commitment to neutrality and friendly relations with India .
- Soviet-Afghan Relations (1979-1989): India sup Soviet-backed Afghan government during the Cold War, the only South Asian country to do so.
Modern Era
Pre-2021 Engagement:
- Historically opposed the Taliban due to security concerns, especially regarding the Kashmir insurgency.
- Supported anti-Taliban Northern Alliance (1996-2001) financially and militarily.
- Post-2001, significantly invested ($3 billion) in Afghanistan’s infrastructure: Salma Dam, Afghan Parliament, Zaranj-Delaram Highway.
- Post-Taliban (2001): India played a key role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction after the Taliban’s fall, committing over $3 billion for infrastructure and capacity building projects.
-
- Landmarks:
- Salma Dam (Afghan-India Friendship Dam): Completed in 2016.
- Zaranj-Delaram Highway: Facilitated trade with Iran via Chabahar Port.
Post-Taliban Takeover (2021 onward):
- Initial cautious engagement through indirect diplomatic channels (Doha talks).
- Reopened Indian Embassy in Kabul (June 2022) for pragmatic, limited engagement.
- The Afghan Embassy in New Delhi closed (October 2023) due to resource constraints.
- High-level meeting in Dubai (January 2025) between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.
- Taliban Era (1996–2001): Relations soured during the Taliban regime, marked by incidents like the Kandahar hijacking (1999).
Implications for India
- Diplomatic Isolation: India has not recognized Taliban; risks being left out of evolving Afghan diplomacy.
- Security Threats: Rise of ISKP and Taliban–LeT ties raise fears of terrorism spillover into Kashmir.
- Geoeconomic Challenges: India’s $3 billion investments in Afghan infrastructure (e.g., Salma Dam, Parliament) now insecure.
- Loss of Soft Power: India’s developmental goodwill eroded amid China–Russia–Pakistan engagement.
- Chabahar & INSTC affected: Regional instability could undermine India’s trade access to Central Asia via Iran.
- Strategic Watch on SCO: China likely to push for Taliban’s recognition at the Sept 2025 SCO Summit in Tianjin.
- Diplomatic Dilemma: Balancing ties with Iran, Central Asia, and Taliban-led Afghanistan without compromising principles.
India’s Recent Engagement with the Taliban
- Strategic Backchannel Diplomacy: India has maintained informal contacts with the Taliban through backchannels in Doha since 2021.
- Safeguard Indian interests post-U.S. withdrawal and ensure safety of Indian assets/projects in Afghanistan.
- Reopening of Indian Embassy in Kabul: In June 2022, India deployed a “technical team” in its Kabul embassy to resume limited operations.
- Humanitarian aid coordination and intelligence liaison, not formal recognition.
- Humanitarian Assistance: India has delivered over 47,000 metric tonnes of wheat, 500,000 COVID vaccines, and essential medicines under UN auspices.
- Aid channeled through the UN World Food Programme and WHO to avoid legitimizing the Taliban regime directly.
- Security Coordination after ISKP Threats: Post ISKP threats in the region and attacks on Sikh minorities, India coordinated security sharing via regional mechanisms like SCO and Moscow Format.
- Taliban Condemns Pahalgam Terror Attack: The Afghan foreign minister strongly condemned the April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack.
- Seen as Taliban’s bid to project itself as a responsible actor; interpreted cautiously by India.
- Limited Engagement at Multilateral Platforms: India interacted with Taliban representatives at the Moscow Format and Heart of Asia processes but avoided formal bilateral diplomacy.
- Focus remained on regional peace, counter-terrorism, and humanitarian priorities.
- No Formal Recognition Policy: MEA clarified that engagement doesn’t equate to recognition.
- India supports “inclusive Afghan polity” and rights for women and minorities, consistent with UNSC Resolution 2593.
Challenges and Opportunities for India
Challenges
- Terror Risk Escalation: Increased ISKP activity and potential safe havens for anti-India groups.
- Loss of Influence: Russia and China filling vacuum left by US withdrawal and India’s cautious approach.
- Human Rights Concern: India wary of Taliban’s treatment of women, minorities, and democratic norms.
- Connectivity Blockage: India cannot access Afghanistan directly due to lack of land route via Pakistan.
Opportunities
- Leverage in Regional Forums: Can use SCO, BRICS, and bilateral talks with Central Asia for backdoor diplomacy.
- Afghan People’s Goodwill: India’s humanitarian aid and scholarships still valued in Afghan civil society.
- Quiet Engagement: Delhi has reportedly maintained informal contacts with Taliban via Doha.
- Strategic Balancing: Possibility to coordinate with Iran, CARs (Central Asian Republics), and even Russia on selective issues.
Way Forward for India
- Calibrated Engagement: Resume limited diplomatic presence (like humanitarian consulate) without full recognition.
- Backchannel Talks: Continue secret-level interactions to assess Taliban’s ground reality and red lines.
- People-Centric Approach: Expand scholarships, food aid, medical support to retain Afghan goodwill.
- Strengthen Regional Ties: Deepen ties with Iran, Uzbekistan, and Russia to influence Afghan affairs indirectly.
- Watch for SCO Signals: Use Tianjin Summit (Sept 2025) to gauge global mood on Taliban recognition.
- Border Security Tightening: Beef up intelligence coordination, especially in Kashmir and Punjab sectors.
- Narrative Leadership: Champion democratic values, women’s rights, and human security in multilateral platforms.
Conclusion
Russia’s recognition of the Taliban reflects its strategic and economic priorities, but India must adopt a cautious, multifaceted approach to safeguard its security, economic interests, and regional influence. Balancing pragmatic engagement with principled diplomacy will be key to navigating Afghanistan’s evolving geopolitical landscape.
Additional Readings: India’s Engagement with Taliban
To get PDF version, Please click on "Print PDF" button.