India’s global position and its geopolitical engagement are being reshaped as it navigates the challenges of an evolving world order. 

Geopolitical Reset and India’s Global Presence

• Global Geopolitics Reset: A significant shift is occurring in global geopolitics, requiring India to increase its global presence.
• Strategic Challenge: India’s global strategies are hindered by contradictions and double standards, particularly from its strategic partners (e.g., the U.S. and the EU).

Operation Sindoor and Global Response

• India’s retaliation against Pakistan-based terror camps after the Pahalgam attack (April 22, 2025) by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorists.
• Global Reaction:
  • Strategic partners (e.g., U.S., EU) hesitated to call out Pakistan for harboring UN-sanctioned terrorist groups.
  • U.S. President Trump claimed credit for a ceasefire using trade leverage, contradicted by India in parliamentary debates.
  • Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir invited to lunch with Trump post-Operation Sindoor.
• Positive Developments:
  • The U.S. designated The Resistance Front (TRF), responsible for the Pahalgam attack, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT).
  • The UN Security Council’s Monitoring Team named TRF for the attack.
• Implication: India struggles to shape global narratives despite decisive action against terrorism.

U.S – India Relations

• Trade and Tariffs:
  • The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on India on the day of the NISAR satellite launch (India-U.S. collaboration).
  • Trump linked tariffs to India’s Russian oil imports, accusing India of supporting the “Russian War Machine” despite advocating U.S.-Russia rapprochement.
  • The U.S. encouraged companies to invest domestically, not in India.
• Security Concerns:
  • U.S.-Pakistan relations strengthened, with the U.S. praising Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts, ignoring India’s security concerns.
  • U.S. support for anti-Hasina forces in Bangladesh and anti-military forces in Myanmar destabilizes India’s interests.
• Impact: Eroding mutual trust and strained regional security coordination post-Galwan and Pahalgam.

EU’s Double Standards

• Sanctions on India: EU targeted India’s Vadinar Refinery (linked to Russian Rosneft), threatening energy security.
• Hypocrisy: EU countries (e.g., Hungary, Slovakia) import Russian oil and LNG (51% of Russian LNG exports to Europe) while criticizing India.
• Trade Barriers: EU’s carbon border tax and digital trade barriers hinder India’s trade prospects.
• India’s Response: Hopes India-U.K. CETA (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) will pressure the EU to soften trade demands.

China’s Regional Influence

• Neighborhood Diplomacy: China proposed a trilateral initiative with Pakistan and Bangladesh (at Kunming, Yunnan province of China); Bangladesh declined.
  • China supports revival of a WWII airbase in Lalmonirhat (Bangladesh), near India’s Siliguri Corridor.
  • Extensive support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor.
• Provocations:
  • Standardized Mandarin names for Arunachal Pradesh locations.
  • Plans to control the Dalai Lama institution.
  • Construction of a mega-dam on the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) near the Indian border.
• Economic Leverage: China’s trade surplus with India squeezes supply chains (rare earths, fertilizers, APIs, tunnel boring machines).
• India’s Response: PM Modi’s Maldives visit to counter China’s influence; efforts to reset ties with China post-Galwan despite no border de-escalation.

Key strategic responses by India to recent geopolitical developments

• Retaliation Against Terrorism: India conducted Operation Sindoor following the Pahalgam terror attack, eliminating terrorists linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, which was backed by Pakistan.
  • Despite the operation’s success, India faced difficulty getting global recognition, as the U.S. and other partners did not hold Pakistan accountable for harboring terrorists.
• U.S.-India Relations: Economic Pressures: U.S. President Trump imposed tariffs on Indian goods (25%) and targeted India’s imports of Russian oil, accusing India of undermining the U.S. position on the Russian conflict.
  • India defended its actions, citing the unfair nature of U.S. pressure given that the U.S. and EU continue to engage with Russia in other areas, like uranium and oil .
• EU Sanctions and Energy Security: The EU imposed sanctions on India’s Vadinar Refinery, disrupting India’s energy security amidst rising oil prices, despite the EU’s own exemptions and continued trade with Russia.
  • India is actively negotiating trade deals like the India-U.K. Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) to counter EU sanctions.
• China’s Strategic Influence in South Asia: China’s increasing presence in India’s neighborhood, including initiatives with Pakistan and Bangladesh, posed strategic challenges. 
  • India is countering China’s influence by strengthening relationships with regional partners, including the Maldives.
• India’s Defense Strategy Reset Amid China-Pakistan Rivalry: The Pahalgam attack and subsequent military response led India to reassess its defense strategy, particularly in the context of China-Pakistan collaboration.
  • India is integrating advanced technology and modernizing defense systems to counter the China-Pakistan alliance, focusing on aerospace superiority and multi-domain operations.
• Strategic Autonomy Amid Global Conflicts: India maintained a neutral stance on the Israel-Gaza war, signaling its cautious approach to global conflicts to preserve its strategic autonomy.
  • India’s response reflects its broader strategy of balancing international relationships without fully aligning with any one power, allowing it to retain flexibility in its foreign policy.
• Geopolitical Assertiveness: India is calling out double standards from the U.S. and EU, emphasizing its right to pursue independent economic and energy security policies. 
  • This assertiveness highlights India’s growing confidence in global affairs.

Importance of Geopolitical Engagement for India’s Growth

• Diversification of Trade Partnerships: India’s engagement in multilateral forums like BRICS and the Quad allows it to diversify trade relationships, reducing dependence on any single country. 
  • This diversification mitigates risks associated with global economic fluctuations and enhances India’s resilience in the global market.
• Strategic Infrastructure Initiatives: Projects such as the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) exemplify India’s commitment to enhancing connectivity and trade routes. 
  • These initiatives facilitate smoother trade flows, reduce transportation costs, and open new markets for Indian goods and services.
• Energy Security through Diplomatic Engagement: India’s diplomatic ties with countries like Russia ensure a steady supply of energy resources. 
  • For instance, despite global sanctions, India continues to import discounted Russian oil, emphasizing the importance of energy security in its foreign policy.
• Influence in Global Governance: India’s active participation in organizations like the G20 and its leadership in the Global South amplify its voice in global economic governance. 
  • This influence enables India to advocate for policies that favor developing nations and align with its national interests.
• Regional Stability and Security: Engagement with neighboring countries and regional organizations ensures a stable environment conducive to economic activities. 
  • Collaborations in defense, trade, and infrastructure with countries like Japan, Germany, and Iran enhance regional security and economic cooperation.
• Technology and Innovation Partnerships: Collaborations with countries possessing advanced technological capabilities facilitate knowledge transfer and innovation. 
  • Partnerships in sectors like space research, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure drive technological advancements within India.
• Cultural Diplomacy and Soft Power: India’s cultural diplomacy, supported by its vast diaspora, strengthens its global stature. 
  • Initiatives like the International Day of Yoga and India’s role in peacekeeping missions bolster its soft power, enhancing its influence in global affairs.

Challenges Ahead for India

• Trade Tensions with the U.S.: Recently, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports, escalating to 50% by August 27. 
  • This move, citing India’s continued purchase of Russian oil, threatens India’s export-driven sectors. 
  • Analysts warn this could reduce India’s GDP growth by up to 80 basis points over the next year.
• Energy Security Challenges: Despite global sanctions, India continues to import discounted Russian oil, comprising about 36–40% of its oil imports. 
  • This dependency exposes India to geopolitical pressures and potential supply disruptions.
• Geopolitical Instability: India faces an increasingly volatile global environment, with rising tensions in regions like the South China Sea and the Middle East, which could disrupt trade routes and impact regional security.
• Economic Protectionism: With growing protectionism, especially from the U.S. and EU, India’s export-driven growth model is under threat. 
  • Tariffs, trade barriers, and sanctions could limit India’s access to global markets.
• China’s Expanding Influence: China’s increasing influence in India’s neighborhood and its assertive stance in the Indo-Pacific pose significant challenges. 
• Internal Security Threats: India continues to face internal security challenges, particularly from terrorism, insurgencies in Jammu and Kashmir, and Naxalite movements, which disrupt national stability and development.
• Climate Change and Environmental Risks: Climate change poses an existential threat to India, with increasing floods, droughts, and extreme weather events affecting agriculture, water resources, and public health.
• Human Capital and Employment: With a young and growing population, India must focus on job creation, skill development, and education to address its demographic dividend and prevent rising unemployment and inequality.

Way Forward for India

• Strengthen Multilateral Relations: India should continue to build strategic partnerships across global platforms like BRICS, Quad, and the G20 to ensure diversified support for its growth and security.
• Focus on Trade and Economic Reforms: India must push for comprehensive trade agreements, streamline domestic regulations.
  • Should make efforts to improve ease of doing business to counter protectionism and foster sustainable economic growth.
• Enhance Regional Diplomacy: By engaging proactively with neighbors and regional organizations, India can work towards regional stability and counterbalance China’s growing influence, especially in the Indian Ocean and South Asia.
• Boost Defense and Security: India must invest in modernizing its defense capabilities, including cyber and space defense, and enhance intelligence-sharing with global and regional allies to counter internal and external security threats.
• Accelerate Renewable Energy Transition: India should focus on scaling up renewable energy projects, increasing energy efficiency, and securing energy supply diversification to mitigate the risks of fossil fuel dependence and geopolitical disruptions.
  • For instance, India aims to achieve 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022 and 500 GW by 2030.
• Invest in Climate Resilience: Strengthening disaster management frameworks, investing in sustainable agriculture, and enhancing water conservation techniques are critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change.
• Promote Skill Development Initiatives: Expanding vocational training programs and aligning education with industry needs will bridge skill gaps and enhance employability, ensuring India’s demographic potential is fully utilized.

Conclusion

India’s geopolitical strategy must evolve from neutrality to assertive engagement to secure its economic and technological growth. By strengthening multilateral ties, countering regional challenges, and addressing internal vulnerabilities, India can navigate the broken template of geopolitics and emerge as a global leader.

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